Dành cho những ai còn nghi ngờ về cuộc Đại khủng hoảng toàn cầu.

ai còn nghi ngờ về cuộc đại khủng hoảng toàn nhân loại?

ai còn nghi ngờ đây là cuộc suy thoái nhẹ nhàng hơn 2008?

Hãy cẩn trọng. và hãy bảo vệ những đồng tiền cuối cùng của mình.

2016 ko phải là năm đầu tư vào tài sản rũi ro, nhất là ck.

Khủng hoảng 2008 chỉ là con muỗi vo ve so với cuộc khủng hoảng vĩ đại 2016, chỉ có thể so sánh với đại khủng hoảng 1933.

Bass Says China Bank Losses May Top 400% of Subprime Crisis

Katia Porzecanski KatiaPorzo
February 10, 2016 — 11:15 PM ICTUpdated on February 11, 2016 — 6:21 AM ICT
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter



Kyle Bass. Photographer: Jonathan Fickies/Bloomberg
FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube
Recommended
Munger Says Donald Trump Isn't Morally Qualified for Presidency
This Is Why the Fed Is Paying Interest to Big Banks
Aussie Bonds Surging Like It's 1991 Don't Need Recession Driver
Inside Janet Yellen's Testimony on Negative Rates

• Manager says 10% asset loss would cut equity by $3.5 trillion
• China would have to print $10 trillion to recapitalize banks

Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Kyle Bass, the hedge fund manager who successfully bet against mortgages during the subprime crisis, said China’s banking system may see losses of more than four times those suffered by U.S. banks during the last crisis.

Should the Chinese banking system lose 10 percent of its assets because of nonperforming loans, the nation’s banks will see about $3.5 trillion in equity vanish, Bass, the founder of Dallas-based Hayman Capital Management, wrote in a letter to investors obtained by Bloomberg. The world’s second-biggest economy may end up having to print more than $10 trillion of yuan to recapitalize banks, pressuring the currency to devalue in excess of 30 percent against the dollar, according to Bass.


Are China's Banks Heading for Disaster?
“What we are witnessing is the resettling of the largest macro imbalance the world has ever seen,” he wrote. “Credit in China has reached its near-term limit, and the Chinese banking system will experience a loss cycle that will have profound implications for the rest of the world.”


Bass said his hedge fund has sold most of its riskier assets since the middle of last year to position itself for 18 months of “various events that are likely to transpire along this long road to a Chinese credit and currency reset.” In an e-mailed response to questions, he said about 85 percent of his portfolio is invested in China-related trades.

“The problems China faces have no precedent,” Bass wrote in the letter. “They are so large that it will take every ounce of commitment by the Chinese government to rectify the imbalances. Risk assets will not be the place to be while all of this is happening.”

Deceleration Pattern
Chinese growth, which averaged 10 percent for three decades through 2010, has decelerated for five straight years and in 2015 slowed to 6.9 percent, the lowest rate in a quarter of a century. It will ease to 6.5 percent this year, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. The economy continues to transition toward growth driven by services and consumption instead of manufacturing and investment, but the new drivers haven’t yet proven sufficient to offset the lagging older ones.

Bass estimates the Chinese economy actually expanded last year at a slower pace than reported, about 3.6 percent, according to the letter. He estimates that of China’s $3.2 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves, about $2.2 trillion are liquid.


The banking system, which he estimates swelled 10-fold in assets over the last decade to more than $34.5 trillion, is fraught with risky products used by financial companies to skirt regulations, wrote Bass. The nation’s expanding shadow banking system -- which he says has grown almost 600 percent in the last three years, citing UBS Group AG data -- “is where the first credit problems are emerging.”

Wealth-management products, which have been used by Chinese banks for off-balance sheet lending and to lure buyers with perceived guarantees and yields that trump the deposit rate, are being brought back onto the balance sheets as they begin to fail, according to Bass. He also said the use of trust-beneficiary rights -- the legal rights to trust products -- are “ticking time bombs” because they’re used by banks to hide loan losses.

“We believe the epicenter of the problem is the Chinese banking system and its coming losses,” he wrote. “Until China experiences a significant devaluation, it will not be able to cope with the build-up of credit that has helped fuel its rise, but may, in the short-term, be its undoing.”

Bass, 46, scored big in 2007 betting against mortgages. While the world’s largest banks wrote off more than $80 billion in subprime losses, Bass and others racked up billions in profit. Since then his performance has been more mixed, with his main fund returning about 1.6 percent annualized as of last August, the New York Post reported at the time.

Japan, Drugs
In 2010, Bass began publicly forecasting a collapse in Japan’s government-bond market.

The manager, who has challenged dozens of U.S. drug patents since early 2015, recommended shares of the pharmaceutical company Perrigo Co. at an investment conference last May. The stock fell about 18 percent in U.S. trading from May 7, when Bass made his presentation, to Sept. 30, when Hayman no longer reported owning the stock in quarterly filings.

In October, Bass said China was facing a cycle of credit contraction, and he predicted an emerging Asia banking crisis.