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Economic Analysis - Rates On Hold In The Short Term, But Further Cuts Expected
Vietnam - Economy - 20 May 2009
BMI View: With growth slowing to the slowest in a decade and consumer price inflation dropping back into single digits, we see room for the State Bank of Vietnam to lower rates further in 2009. However, with lending growth surging in April and public confidence in the dong still fragile, we find it likely that the SBV will keep the base rate on hold in the short term, instead potentially opting to lower the refinancing rate further.

We maintain our forecast of an additional 200bps in cuts in the base rate from the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) as economic growth remains sluggish and consumer price inflation continues to trend downwards. However, the present weak public confidence in the value of the dong will constrain the central bank in its efforts to stimulate consumption in the near term, as further interest rate cuts risk increasing the dollarisation of the economy.

The SBV kept the benchmark Vietnam base rate unchanged at 7.0% at its latest meeting on April 29, but central bank governor Nguyen Van Giau stated in an interview published on the government''s website on May 4 that the SBV would keep easing monetary policy in order to support the government''s stimulus efforts to boost the economy. Real Interest Rate Returning To Positive Territory
Vietnam - Consumer Price Inflation and Policy Rate

Source: GSO, SBV


Indeed, with GDP growth dropping to 3.1% y-o-y in Q109, the lowest quarterly growth estimate on record, and consumer price inflation dropping to 9.2% y-o-y in April after having touched 28.4% in September 2008, we foresee further monetary easing in order to stimulate domestic demand over the remainder of the year. The SBV has held off from cutting the base rate, which it uses to set reference rates for commercial bank deposit and lending rates, since lowering it from 8.5% to 7.0% on January 23, opting instead on April 10 to lower the refinancing rate, at which it lends to commercial banks, from 8.0% to 7.0%, and the discount rate, at which it buys back bank debt securities, from 6.0% to 5.0%.

The heaviest load in easing credit conditions has instead been pulled by the government, which has spent more than VND17trn (US$1bn) on its interest-rate subsidy programme, in which it has paid the interest costs in excess of 4% of loans to small-and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The programme has proved highly effective in boosting commercial lending, helping to push up year-to-date (YTD) credit growth to 11.16% at the end of April, from a mere 2.67% YTD a month earlier.

However, the effectiveness of the programme is now under threat as commercial banks are struggling to raise funds to extend loans. The deposit interest rates offered by banks are already approaching the 10.5% cap on lending rates (150% of policy rate), squeezing the net interest margin and overall profitability of banks. A reduction of the base rate with the aim of stimulating the economy would thus be counterproductive if not coupled with measures aimed at facilitating capital conditions for banks. With the reserve requirement ratio for short-and long-term dong deposits already as low as 3% and 1% respectively, we believe the next move is likely to be another cut in the refinancing rate in order to keep cheap credit flowing to the corporate sector.

However, it is not inconceivable that the SBV could hold off on pulling the trigger in order to save rate-cutting ammunition in the event of further negative sentiment buffeting the economy. Moreover, the current monetary easing, combined with an expansive fiscal policy and base effects from a period of deflation in the last four months of 2008, have raised the spectre of inflation returning to double digits towards the end of the year. This could unanchor inflation expectations and further undermine public confidence in the dong, endangering an expected economic recovery.

Meanwhile, the government is currently working on a bill to give the SBV more autonomy on its monetary policymaking. The first draft of the State Bank Law bill is expected to be presented to the National Assembly at the end of this year, with ratification scheduled for early 2010. If the bill is passed, which we expect to be a mere formality, it will be a positive for macroeconomic stability by clarifying the mandate for the central bank and strengthening its autonomy vis-à-vis the government.

The current state bank law does not determine what the SBV''s priority should be in policymaking, with the bank being commissioned to run a monetary policy of both controlling prices and depreciating the dong at a pace of 1% annually against the US dollar to boost the competitiveness of Vietnamese exports. With high growth rates being vital to uphold the public acceptance of one-party rule by the Communist Party Vietnam, depreciating the exchange-rate has been the de facto mandate for the SBV.

The macroeconomic risks inherent in the absence of a strong inflation-targeting mandate for the SBV have become increasingly apparent in the past five to ten years as the SBV''s exchange-rate mandates has resulted in a very lax monetary policy regime as the central bank has been unable, or unwilling, to fully immunise large capital inflows from foreign direct investment and remittances.

Having taken stock of the real estate and stock market booms, which both ended in a severe slump in 2007 and 2008, and skyrocketing inflation which hit 28.4% y-o-y in August last year, the Vietnamese government is now seeking to clarify the SBV''s mandate of controlling both the exchange-rate and inflation, as well as strengthening its role in bank supervision, in the new State Bank Law bill. The new legislation follows a plan adopted in 2006 to make the SBV fully independent in setting policies on monetary, interest rate and exchange rate management by 2020.

If the government moves ahead with the State Bank Law bill, we would view this as a significant step towards greater macroeconomic stability and a possible upgrade in our long-term economic risk rating, where Vietnam currently stands at 55.4, with the central bank independence component scoring 1 out of 5. VIETNAM - MONETARY POLICY
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Lending rate, %, eop 3 10.25 11.40 11.18 12.00 15.00 9.00 f 12.00 f 12.00 f 12.00 f 12.00 f
Real Lending Rate, %, eop 1,4 0.58 2.60 4.58 -0.60 -4.90 1.70 f 5.00 f 6.00 f 6.00 f 6.00 f
Consumer prices, % y-o-y, eop 2,5 9.7 8.8 6.6 12.6 19.9 7.3 f 7.0 f 6.0 f 6.0 f 6.0 f
Consumer prices, % y-o-y, ave 2,5 7.7 8.2 7.5 8.3 23.0 7.0 f 9.0 f 6.5 f 6.0 f 6.0 f
Exchange rate VND/US$, eop 6 15768.00 15913.00 16051.00 16018.00 17480.00 19000.00 f 20000.00 f 19000.00 f 18000.00 f 17000.00 f
Exchange rate VND/US$, ave 6 15736.91 15851.56 15987.37 16075.77 16432.78 18240.00 f 19500.00 f 19500.00 f 18500.00 f 17500.00 f
M2, VNDbn 7 532346.0 690652.0 922672.0 1153340.0 1441675.0 1730010.0 f 2076012.0 f 2491214.0 f 2989457.0 f 3587349.0 f
M2, % y-o-y 7 29.5 29.7 33.6 25.0 25.0 20.0 f 20.0 f 20.0 f 20.0 f 20.0 f
Central Bank policy rate, % 8 7.50 7.80 8.25 8.25 8.50 5.00 f 6.50 f 8.00 f 8.00 f 8.00 f
Exchange rate VND/EUR, eop 6 21378.25 18840.99 21180.90 23368.66 24472.00 24700.00 f 26400.00 f 26220.00 f 23220.00 f 21250.00 f

Notes: f BMI forecasts. 1 Real rate strips out the effects of inflation; 2 Base year 2000; Sources: 3 IMF. 4 IMF/BMI; 5 General Statistics Office; 6 BMI; 7 IMF, State Bank of Vietnam; 8 State Bank of Vietnam.

em nhầm nó bảo lãi suất ổn định. 2009 lại cut rate tiếp