Báo cáo của Goldman Sachs

Báo cáo của Goldman Sachs

Vietnam: Rising inflation, growth setback and a likely roadmap of policy response
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With CPI inflation running at double-digit levels for the past 6 months and still climbing, more investors have become worried about Vietnamâ?Ts macro stability. Vietnam is clearly at a crucial stage of its cyclical management for inflation control and ensuring a soft landing of the economy.
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Among these policy options, we believe the central bank will likely rely more on higher interest rates and credit control to reduce domestic overheating pressures, while maintaining the fixed exchange rate with a moderate downward crawl against the USD in 2008â?"2009.
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With the governmentâ?Ts policy priority firmly placed on inflation control over growth, we deem there is a greater probability that macro stability can be maintained in Vietnam.
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However, we still expect Vietnamâ?Ts economic growth to moderate to below its potential level in the next two years, so that inflation will likely come down gradually towards early-2009. Our forecast for real GDP growth is 7.3% yoy for 2008 and 7.8% yoy in 2009, and our annual average CPI inflation forecasts are 19.0% yoy and 10.0% yoy for 2008 and 2009 respectively.