Bloomberg: Giá kỳ hạn của dola Mỹ 1 năm là 23,975 per dollar ặc ặc

Bloomberg: Giá kỳ hạn của dola Mỹ 1 năm là 23,975 per dollar ặc ặc

Vietnam Must End Dual Dong Rate for Importers, Banks, ANZ Says

By Patricia Lui

June 18 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnam must narrow the 10 percent difference between the nation''s two exchange rates to restore confidence in the dong, said Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.

The dong rate used by some commercial banks has fallen to as low as 18,000 per dollar, said ANZ, compared with the 16,611 rate used by selected importers. The central bank should intervene with banks to guide the two rates together, wrote economist Paul Gruenwald at ANZ.

``Benign neglect of the parallel market is fraught with risks,'''' wrote Singapore-based Gruenwald, head of Asian economics at the bank, in a research note which he confirmed by telephone. A weakening of the dong in the unofficial market ``could set in motion inflation and capital outflows which may be difficult to manage.''''

Three credit-rating companies have cut Vietnam''s debt rating outlook since May, and Morgan Stanley last month said the dong is set for a ``currency crisis'''' as inflation has risen to 25 percent and the trade deficit has surged. Vietnam doesn''t plan to let the dong depreciate because it would affect the economy, Finance Minister Vu Van Ninh said June 15.

The central bank weakened the dong reference rate by 2 percent on June 11 to prevent currency speculation, and set it at 16,457 today. The currency is officially allowed to trade 1 percent either side of this. Central banks intervene in currency markets by buying or selling foreign exchange.

Lost Relevance

Forwards contracts are pricing in a 30 percent drop in the next year, after taking into account interest-rate differentials, according to offshore 12-month non-deliverable forwards at 23,975 per dollar. Forwards are agreements in which assets are bought and sold at current prices for future delivery.
The official rate ``has lost its relevance as a price signal,'''' wrote Gruenwald.
The Southeast Asian nation is unlikely to face a currency depreciation like that of Thailand in 1997 as it has sufficient foreign-exchange reserves to defend the dong, ANZ said.

``The trick is therefore to maintain domestic confidence'''' and prevent conversion of dong assets into dollars, the note said, adding that estimated foreign currency deposits are 25 percent of total deposits compared to over 40 percent in 2000.

The central bank should also add to interest-rate increases to increase the allure of the nation''s assets and reduce government spending, wrote Gruenwald. The central bank raised rates to 14 percent last week, the highest in Asia, from 12 percent to curb inflation and stabilize the economy.