CỔ PHIẾU NGÂN HÀNG VIỆT NAM: ĐỊNH HƯỚNG ĐẦU TƯ CHIẾN LƯỢC CỦA NƯỚC NGOÀI

CỔ PHIẾU NGÂN HÀNG VIỆT NAM: ĐỊNH HƯỚNG ĐẦU TƯ CHIẾN LƯỢC CỦA NƯỚC NGOÀI

Mời các bác đọc bài phân tích định hướng dưới đây của một số nhà đầu tư chuyên nghiệp nước ngoài như UBS AG, Merrill Lynch & Co... về định hướng đầu tư của nước ngoài vào CP các Ngân hàng tại Việt Nam. Nguồn từ Wall Street Journal Asia đăng hôm nay.

Với tình hình này CP các Ngân hàng sẽ còn tiếp tục HOT và CỰC HOT trong suốt năm 2007. Khoai Tây sẽ tìm cách mua trực tiếp hoặc thông qua các quỹ đầu tư gián tiếp mua CP các Ngân hàng Việt Nam. Anh em cố gắng giữ CP Ngân hàng làm đầu tư dài hạn nhé, hết năm 2007 bảo đảm phải lãi ít nhất 100%. Đừng bán ra rồi không mua lại được đâu nhé.

Sorry vì không có thời gian dịch ra tiếng Việt nên post lên phục vụ anh em bản nguyên văn tiếng Anh nhé:

WSJA(2/2) Vietnamese Banks Attract Foreign Investors

(From THE WALL STREET JOURNAL ASIA)
By Kate Linebaugh
HONG KONG -- For banks expanding in Asia, Vietnam could be the new China.
Since the beginning of the year, three banks have announced investments in Vietnamese lenders. In the latest deal, announced Thursday, Deutsche Bank AG of Germany agreed to buy as much as 20% of Hanoi Building Commercial Joint Stock Bank for an undisclosed sum. Britain''''s HSBC Holdings PLC and Singapore''''s United Overseas Bank Ltd. have also announced investments.

Vietnam is all the rage in Asian finance circles, from private-equity shops to investment bankers. It gained entry to the World Trade Organization in January. The country''''s annual economic growth of about 8% is second in Asia only to China''''s. Vietnam offers banks a high savings rate and, according to a report by UBS AG, a population of roughly 85 million, about half of which is under 25 years old.

"You''''re looking at one of the fastest-growing economies in Asia," says Alistair Scarff, a regional banking analyst at Merrill Lynch & Co. "You''''re looking at a younger population. You''''re looking at an underpenetrated banking sector in a market that has the potential to be quite large. All the ingredients of what attracts bank investors are all lined up."

As part of Vietnam''''s entry into the WTO, the government agreed to loosen restrictions on foreign banks, allowing local incorporation but limiting the services they can offer. Foreign ownership of local banks is capped at 30%, and no single foreign entity can hold more than 10%. Bankers and analysts widely expect that cap to be raised to 20% soon.

Two years ago, global banks were marching into China as the country''''s domestic lenders sought foreign expertise and capital ahead of the opening of the banking sector to foreign rivals last December. Global giants like Bank of America Corp. and Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC paid billions of dollars for small stakes in the country''''s biggest lenders. Those investments have turned into hefty gains.
In Vietnam, the sums are much smaller. Last week, HSBC said it agreed to pay US$71.5 million to increase its stake in Vietnam Technological & Commercial Joint-Stock Bank, or Techcombank, to 20% from 10% as soon as regulations allow. That is more than four times what it paid for its original 10% stake in December 2005, but a fraction of the $1.75 billion the British bank paid for its 19.99% stake in Bank of Communications Ltd. of China. UOB of Singapore paid $30 million for 10% of Vietnam''''s Southern Commercial Joint Stock Bank and will pay $39 million for the next 10% when the ceiling rises.
Deutsche Bank, in its own deal, is looking to establish partnerships with Habubank, as the lender is known, in credit cards, wealth management and the development and distribution of investment products. The German bank will also provide assistance in risk and treasury management. It will become the Vietnamese lender''''s single-largest shareholder and will have representation on the board, according to Deutsche Bank.
Habubank has 21 branches across the country and $750 million in assets. It is Vietnam''''s sixth-largest partly private commercial joint stock bank by assets.
"Deutsche Bank believes in the growth potential of Vietnam," says Rainer Neske, the bank''''s head of private and business clients.
Merrill''''s Mr. Scarff cautions that the optimistic view should be tempered by the significant overhauls still needed in Vietnam, such as strengthening banks'''' asset quality and improving disclosure and corporate governance. The government is attempting to address these issues by bolstering banking supervision and revising the capital structure of the country''''s biggest banks. It is preparing some of the biggest banks for public stock offerings that may happen as early as this year.
"We believe it makes sense to have a twofold strategy," says HSBC Vietnam Chief Executive Alain Cany. He says the bank plans to build its own high-end business there, while at the same time tapping the consumer and retail markets through its stake in Techcombank. "That''''s very similar to our model in China."
Mr. Cany says he expects to be able to expand HSBC''''s branch network to 15 to 20 branches in the next three to five years, from two now, while helping Techcombank double or triple its network of 90 branches over the same period.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

Thursday, 1 February 2007 21:32:01