Đây là lý do Thủ tướng sang Đức: kỷ nguyên hợp tác với châu Âu thay Mỹ bắt đầu

Đây là lý do Thủ tướng sang Đức: kỷ nguyên hợp tác với châu Âu thay Mỹ bắt đầu

German Investor Confidence Unexpectedly Rose in March (Update1)

By Gabi Thesing

March 11 (Bloomberg) -- Investor confidence in Germany unexpectedly rose for a second month in March, adding to evidence Europe''s largest economy is coping with the euro''s appreciation and a U.S. slowdown.

The ZEW Center for European Economic Research said its index of investor and analyst expectations rose to minus 32 from minus 39.5 in February. Economists expected it to fall to minus 40, according to the median of 40 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The gauge reached a 15-year low of minus 41.6 in January.

German companies have increased efficiency and reduced labor costs, helping them to remain competitive even after the euro gained 17 percent against the dollar in the past year. Still, with the U.S. teetering on the brink of a recession and oil prices over $108 a barrel sapping consumers'' purchasing power, the economy of the 15 euro nations is losing momentum.

``Germany should come out of this slowdown much better than other euro-area countries,'''' said Dominic Bryant, an economist at BNP Paribas in London. ``It won''t escape the slowdown, but we are certainly not talking about a recession. Companies have really done their homework in recent years.''''

The euro rose to as high as $1.5452 after the report, close to the record $1.5465 on March 7.

Today''s report is the latest to suggest German growth is holding up. Business confidence unexpectedly rose for a second month in February, industrial production increased more than expected in January and exports jumped 3.8 percent. Unemployment has also fallen to the lowest level in more than 15 years, which may support consumer spending.

`There''s Hope''

Rising U.S. mortgage defaults pushed up borrowing costs globally last year, threatening investment and causing about $188 billion in asset writedowns and credit losses so far at the world''s biggest banks and securities firms.

The U.S. unexpectedly lost jobs in February for the second consecutive month, the Labor Department said March 7, adding to evidence that the world''s biggest economy is contracting.

The ZEW index ``is forward looking, and there''s hope that the U.S. fiscal package and interest-rate cuts will help revive'''' the U.S. economy, said Rainer Guntermann, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt.

The U.S. government has introduced a $168 billion economic stimulus package to boost consumption and the Federal Reserve has reduced borrowing costs five times since September.

Lower U.S. interest rates relative to Europe have helped drive the euro to a record against the dollar, threatening to curb European export growth.

Shares Drop

Germany''s benchmark DAX share index has dropped 20 percent this year, the biggest decline among major European stock markets, on concern that a possible U.S. recession will spread to Europe and hurt company profits.

Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG, the world''s largest maker of printing machines, last month cut its annual profit forecast after a drop in third-quarter earnings. The company said a weaker dollar hurt margins and some U.S. publishers are holding back investment because they are worried about a recession.

``What started as a credit crisis in the U.S. will spread to the real economy in Europe soon,'''' said Holger Schmieding, chief European economist at Bank of America in London.

At the same time, surging oil prices are pushing up energy bills. Crude oil rose above $108 a barrel for the first time today and is 83 percent more expensive than it was a year ago.

The International Monetary Fund said Feb. 27 that the U.S. slowdown and ``weaker'''' world trade will curb Germany''s expansion. The economy may grow 1.5 percent this year after 2.5 percent in 2007, the Washington-based fund said.