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Growth intact; consumption on rise​

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• CPI concerns easing – focus back on domestic growth

At the beginning of 2010 many observers feared high inflation would return after a year of loose monetary policy in 2009, especially as CPI edged higher during the first three months of 2010 due to the seasonal Chinese Lunar New Year (Vietnamese Tet) holiday effect. However, things have cooled down since April and month-on-month CPI growth is well below 0.3%, a rather good number for Vietnam. Inflation expected at 8% will allow the SBV to accommodate a loose monetary policy in the coming months in a bid to support the GDP growth target of 6.5% this year.

• Trade deficit is a manageable concern thanks to strong FDI and remittances

Trade deficit reached USD 6.3 bn in 1H-2010, and may reach USD 15 bn by year end. However, Vietnam is still able to maintain strong FDI and capital inflows. With equilibrium in balance of payment, we think foreign exchange will remain stable towards the year end.

• Domestic consumption is the key growth driver

Under stable macro environment, the economy has been growing robustly in 1H2010 as GDP reached 6.1% year on year. Though export has bounced back from a drop in 2009, it has not been strong enough to narrow the trade deficit, which will likely continue towards the second half of the year as the global economy is still struggling. Looking forward, we believe domestic consumption, which has been the key growth driver in the first half, will continue to play its important role in the second half this year. In fact, we expect a looser monetary policy would on the one hand stir up consumption demand and at the same time encourage more corporate investments, consequently lifting growth in the forecast period.

• Investment strategy: follow domestic demand, watch for commodity input producers

Given the deceleration in global economic recovery, a sound portfolio strategy should be overweight on companies that are geared towards domestic market. We like food, construction, construction material, and real estate. Stocks like BMP, CTD, HBC, HDC, HPG, NTP, SJS and VNM represent VCSC’s top picks in these sectors.

Lời khuyên: VNindex this year nhất định đạt seven hundred nên khuyên tuyệt đối các bác hiện tại chưa nên giải ngân ( giữ 90% money và 10% stock thui). Đợi Vnindex cán five hundred cuối tuần sau thì Vô cho chắc ăn 100%. hê hê..[r2)][r2)][r2)]