Lí do Tây mua ròng từ đầu tháng 1/2008

Lí do Tây mua ròng từ đầu tháng 1/2008

HSBC dự báo rất sáng sủa về kinh tế Việt Nam quí 1/2009. Sau mỗi Tàu

From inflation to growth
The policy focus in Vietnam has shifted rapidly from
fighting inflation just a few months back to
providing support to economic growth. The central
bank has taken aggressive easing action by slashing
interest rates by 400bp to 10% and cutting the cash
reserve ratio by 500bp to 6% over a six week period
starting 20th October, while a number of measures
have also been undertaken to improve bank liquidity
and credit availability to firms. The government is
not holding back either, planning to boost spending
by USD1bn (1% of GDP) in the infrastructure and
export-oriented sectors.
Although these measures should help avert a hard
landing, the growth outlook remains rather bleak.
For one, exports, which make up 70% of GDP,
are expected to crumble given the synchronised
recession in the developed world. Additionally
domestic demand is expected to take a breather,
largely on account of lower investment. Part of
this is a spill-over from export weakness, but at
the same time foreign direct investment - which
makes up 20-25% of total investment - is forecast
to halve. Overall, we expect GDP growth to
average 5.4% in 2009 ?" a 10-year low ?" compared
with an expected 6.4% in 2008.
Just as inflation went up dramatically in 2008, it is
expected to fall with as much vengeance in 2009,
as high commodity prices drop out of the annual
comparison. In addition, weaker growth should
help contain underlying price pressures. We look
for inflation to hit 5% by the middle of 2009 and
then head up gradually, reaching its long-term
average of 11% by the end of 2010.
We think that further monetary easing is likely
and expect the base rate to hit a low of 7.5% in Q1
2009. This, together with improving regional
outlook, should see growth bounce back in 2010.
But for the Vietnamese dong some depreciation is
expected in 2009 as foreign direct investment and
remittance flows weaken
2005 2006 2007 2008f 2009f 2010f
Consumer spending 7.3 8.3 9.6 7.3 6.0 6.8
Government consumption 8.1 8.6 9.0 5.8 6.5 5.8
Fixed investment 9.7 9.9 23.0 13.5 7.0 9.0
Exports - Goods 22.5 22.1 22.7 29.9 -3.0 13.1
Imports - Goods 15.7 33.4 32.6 35.0 -7.9 10.0
GDP 8.4 8.2 8.5 6.4 5.4 6.6
Industrial production 25.5 16.0 16.7 15.2 9.0 13.6
Unemployment 5.3 4.8 4.6 4.8 5.4 5.2
Consumer prices 8.3 7.5 8.3 23.1 9.6 10.1
Current account (% GDP) 0.4 0.5 -10.0 -12.3 -7.6 -5.7
Budget balance (% GDP) -4.9 -5.0 -5.0 -4.0 -5.5 -4.8
VND/USD 15866 16006 16096 16613 17125 17200
Short-term lending rate 7.8 7.8 8.3 9.0 7.5 8.0
5-year interest rate * 8.8 8.3 8.7 9.0 7.5 7.5