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Consumer Confidence in U.S. Rose More Than Forecast

Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. consumers rose more than forecast in August, a sign the biggest part of the economy may avoid a slowdown that would derail the recovery.

The Conference Board’s confidence index increased to 53.5 from a five-month low of 51 in July, figures from the New York- based private research group showed today. The median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 50.7 reading.

More confidence may help ease concern that consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, will falter. To sustain the expansion, companies need to step up hiring and reduce unemployment, which Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last week said will take time.

“Even with this month’s increase, confidence is at a stunningly low level,” said Tom Porcelli, senior economist at RBC Capital Markets Corp. in New York, who had forecast the index would rise to 53.2. “We shouldn’t expect much from the consumer at this point.”

While fewer Americans said jobs were plentiful in August than a month earlier, their outlook for employment opportunities in the coming six months was less bleak, the figures showed.

A separate report today showed home prices rose more than forecast in June from a year earlier, reflecting the influence of a government tax incentive and a sign the market was stabilizing before sales plunged in July. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities increased 4.2 percent from June 2009 after a 4.6 percent year-over-year gain in May.

Stocks Rise

Stocks reversed losses after the sentiment figures, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gaining 0.3 percent to 1,051.73 at 10:19 a.m. in New York. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note declined to 2.49 percent from 2.53 percent late yesterday.

Business activity in the U.S. expanded in August at the slowest rate this year, the Institute for Supply Management- Chicago said today. The group’s business barometer fell to 56.7 this month, the lowest since November, from 62.3 in July. Figures greater than 50 signal expansion.

Estimates for consumer confidence ranged from 47.5 to 55 in the Bloomberg survey of 68 economists. The measure averaged 45 in 2009 and 97 during the expansion that ended in December 2007.

The group’s measure of present conditions decreased to 24.9, the lowest since February, from 26.4 a month earlier. The gauge of expectations for the next six months rose to 72.5 from 67.5.

Employment Outlook

The percent of respondents expecting more jobs to become available in the next six months increased to 14.6 from 14.2 the previous month. The proportion who expect their incomes to rise over the next six months held at 10.6 percent.

The share of consumers who said jobs are currently plentiful fell to 3.8 percent, the lowest this year, from 4.4 percent. Those who said jobs are hard to get increased to 45.7 percent from 45.1 percent.

“Employment concerns continue to weigh heavily on consumers’ attitudes,” Lynn Franco, director of the group’s consumer research center, said in a statement. “Overall, consumers remain apprehensive about the future.”

The world’s largest economy expanded at a slower pace in the second quarter than the government initially estimated, a Commerce Department report showed last week.

Election Issue

The economy is a top issue for voters in the November congressional elections, and polls show the public is increasingly skeptical of President Barack Obama’s performance. Public approval for his handling of the economy was at 41 percent in an Aug. 11-16 Associated Press-GfK survey, an all- time low and down from 50 percent last July.

Firms have been reluctant to hire as they are yet to see a pickup in demand. Companies created 51,000 jobs on average from May through July, down from 200,000 in the prior two months, according to Labor Department data.

The unemployment rate, which reached a 26-year high of 10.1 percent in October 2009, will exceed 9 percent next year, according to a Bloomberg survey.

“Incoming data suggest that the recovery of output and employment in the United States has slowed in recent months, to a pace somewhat lower than most” Fed policy makers projected earlier in the year, Bernanke said Aug. 27 in a speech at the Kansas City Fed’s annual monetary symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “Consumer spending may continue to grow relatively slowly in the near term.”

‘Concern of Policy’

“The prospect of high unemployment for a long period of time remains a central concern of policy,” he said. It “also poses risks to the sustainability of the recovery itself through its effects on households’ incomes and confidence.”

Saks Inc., the New York-based luxury retail chain, this month reported a loss for the second quarter ended July 31 and said it will remain “cautious” for the second half of 2010 even as it plans to make investments including new stores.

“It’s a fragile environment,” Stephen Sadove, chief executive officer, said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Aug. 18. “The consumer is still skittish. They’re very much focused on value.”