Tình hình kinh tế ở Hungary là ổn định , nhận định về tình hình nợ hôm 4/6 là ko phù hợp, là sai lạc

Vài ý chính gạch dưới để các bác nào đang run như cầy sấy tham khảo:

1. Chính phủ Hung đã chính thứuc đính chính lại phát ngôn hôm 4/6 vừa qua:

" Tình hình kinh tế là ổn định, comment hôm 4/6 vừa qua về nợ là không phù hợp, là sai lạc ( misleading)"

2. Giám đôc IMF rất "ngạc nhiên" về comment tuần trước của CP mới .Ủy viên hội đồng kinh tế và tiền tệ EU Olli Rehn cho biết Hung đã có các tiến bộ vượt bậc. Giải thiết về tình trạng nợ của Hung là sai lạc

3. Khả năng chi trả nợ của Hung là "không phải bàn cãi". Bộ truởng ngoại giao Hung nói

4. EU và IMF khen ngơi CP Hung đã giảm thâm hụt ngân sách từ 9,3% năm 2006 xuống 4% trong năm ngoái

5. Hung sẽ không là một Hy lạp thứ 2. Thâm hụt ngân sách năm nay của Hung chỉ là 4,1% GDP so với trung bình của Châu Âu là 6,3% và của Hy lạp là 9,3%. Nợ công là 79% so với trung bình của EU là 83% và Hy lạp là 125%.

Kiểu này dễ tối thứ 2 Âu , Mỹ lại xanh lắm. Bán sàn thứ 2 thứ 3 lại tiêc ngẩn ngơ
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Hungary Cools Default Talk, Commits to Budget Goal (Update2)

June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Hungary’s economic situation is stable and recent comments about a possible default were “unfortunate,” the government said, pledging to stick to the budget deficit goal approved by the country’s creditors.
“Any comparison with countries that have much higher credit default swap ratings than Hungary is unfortunate,” State Secretary Mihaly Varga told reporters today in Budapest. “The comments that have been made about this issue are exaggerated and if they come from colleagues that’s unfortunate.”
Comments from Hungarian officials over the previous two days sparked concern that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis may be spreading to eastern Europe. That helped weaken the euro, pushed Hungary’s currency to a 12-month low and borrowing costs rose the most since October 2008, when the country needed an international bailout to avert a default.
Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who took power a week ago, sought permission for a wider budget deficit from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, which led the 20 billion-euro ($24 billion) bailout for Hungary. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso this week rebuffed Orban, urging him to continue fiscal consolidation....


‘Pretty Big Change’
The government will aim to meet the deficit target of 3.8 percent of gross domestic product, which is “attainable” through changes to spending and revenue plans, Varga said today. Orban called a three-day emergency cabinet meeting to hammer out the action plan.
“It’s a pretty big change from one day to the next,” said Gyorgy Barcza, an economist at KBC Groep NV in Budapest, said in a phone interview. “It’s positive, but local assets may not recover quickly because the new government now has a credibility deficit it needs to overcome and that takes time.”
The Hungarian forint fell 4.8 percent against the euro the past two days, the worst performance among 177 currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The extra yield investors demand to own Hungary’s debt over U.S. Treasuries yesterday rose 149 basis points, or 1.49 percentage point, to 468 basis points, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI Global Index.
EU and IMF leaders today praised the work of former Prime Minister Gordon Bajnai’s administration in reducing the budget deficit to 4 percent of GDP last year from 9.3 percent in 2006.
Serious Progress’
IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said he was “surprised” by the Orban government’s comments earlier this week. EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said Hungary has made “serious progress” and suggestions of a possible default are “misleading.” Both spoke after a gathering of finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of 20 nations in Busan, South Korea today.
Hungary’s ability to finance its debt “isn’t a question,” Varga said.
The issue is the size of the deficit, Varga said. The fact finding-committee found miscalculations “by orders of magnitude” in this year’s budget, he said, declining to give the size of the potential overrun.
Tax revenue will fall short of estimates and spending will exceed the plan in areas such as social security, at municipalities and transportation companies. Items including debt at state-run companies also boost the deficit, he said.
“If nothing is changed in the budget, the planned budget deficit target can’t be met,” he said. “There are a number of tricks in this budget. These numbers are not factual. The government of Gordon Bajnai lied to the country. It didn’t present the real situation in a credible, detailed manner.”
‘Slim Chance’
Varga, a founding member of Orban’s Fidesz party who served as finance minister in the premier’s previous administration, said he persuaded the prime minister to try to meet the deficit target. Varga, 45, also served as chairman of parliament’s budget committee from 2002 to 2010.
Lajos Kosa, another Fidesz founder and the party’s deputy chairman, said June 3 that Hungary had a “slim chance” to avoid a “Greek situation” and the government must focus on averting a default. Peter Szijjarto, Orban’s spokesman, yesterday said the comments weren’t exaggerated.
The politicians were “over-speaking,” said Kristin Lindow, a senior vice president with Moody’s Investors Service in London. Moody’s has a negative outlook on its Baa1 debt rating for Hungary, the third lowest investment grade. The rating was cut from A3 in March 2009.
‘Isn’t the Next Greece’
“Hungary isn’t the next Greece,” Lindow said yesterday in a phone interview. “Hungary has a good track record of doing what it needs to do when in trouble.”
The country’s deficit will widen to 4.1 percent of GDP this year, compared with an average of 6.3 percent in the EU and 9.3 percent in Greece, according to European Commission estimates. Government debt will increase to 79 percent of economic output, compared with an EU average of 84 percent and 125 percent in Greece, the forecasts show.
Szijjarto’s comments helped push the euro below $1.20 for the first time in four years yesterday. EU governments crafted a 750 billion-euro ($904 billion) financial backstop for the euro area last month after Greece’s widening deficit threatened to shatter confidence in the single currency.
Greece’s deficit is forecast at 9.3 percent of GDP this year, pushing government debt to 125 percent of output, according to the European Commission.
“Markets are still not going to be very happy,” said Peter Attard Montalto, an economist at Nomura International Plc in London, said by phone today. “The EU and the IMF will want them to return to ‘Bajnaism’ of consolidation first and growth second. They may have pushed the market too far trying to get away with growth first and budget second. Orban may well try to continue with that until the last possible moment.”