Toàn thế giới rung chuyển

Sợ quá em vào nhìn mà hãi hùng. Dầu lên chạm nguỡng 140$. Thế này đi hết rồi các bác ạ

chính sách USD yếu vẫn sẽ tiếp tục được thực hiện cho đến khi nước Mỹ đi qua suy thoái. Và như vậy là nước Mỹ tiếp tục xuất khẩu lạm phát. Vàng và dầu hôm nay đã tăng siêu mạnh.

Dấu hiệu cho thấy những gì xấu nhất bắt đầu xảy ra

6 tháng đầu năm VN xuất 5.6 bil $ dầu thô và nhập 5.823 bil xăng dầu. Vậy là chúng ta vẫn âm và không được lợi gì khi giá dầu tăng.

Thế giới còn nhiều bất ổn. Việt Nam khả năng sẽ tiếp tục tăng LSCB trong thời gian tới, bond yield sẽ lên khoảng 26%. Kụ MT chú ý nhé

Vietnam''s Inflation Accelerated to 26.8% in June (Update1)

By Beth Thomas and Shamim Adam

June 26 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnam''s consumer prices accelerated for a 16th month in June, suggesting the central bank may need to increase interest rates further to cool inflation that is running at the fastest pace in Asia.

Consumer prices gained 26.8 percent from a year earlier, the biggest jump since at least 1992, from a rate of 25.2 percent in May, according to figures released by the General Statistics Office in Hanoi today. Prices rose 2.1 percent from the previous month.

Vietnam''s interest rates are already the highest in the region after the central bank increased borrowing costs three times this year. Faster inflation is adding pressure on the government to take more steps to prevent surging global food and energy prices from worsening living conditions for the country''s 85 million people.

``Vietnam''s consumer prices aren''t going to go down very quickly,'''' said Sebastien Barbe, a Hong Kong-based strategist for the investment banking unit of France''s Credit Agricole SA. ``Inflation will remain in double digits for several quarters. We expect them to increase interest rates further, by another 2 percentage points.''''

Record oil and commodity prices are fuelling inflation around the world. Crude reached $139.89 a barrel on June 16, while prices of grains such as rice, corn, wheat and soybean reached unprecedented levels in 2008.

Food, Rice

Food prices jumped 74.3 percent in June from a year earlier and 4.3 percent from May, the statistics office said. Prices in a broader food category that includes rice rose 45.6 percent from a year earlier.

The government, which has made fighting inflation its priority, on June 3 cut the economic growth target for this year to 7 percent from 9 percent as it tries to slow price gains. Vietnam is aiming for 2009 growth of as much as 7.5 percent, according to a statement posted on the government''s Web site June 7. Growth quickened to 8.5 percent last year, the fastest in more than a decade.

Prime Minister *************** has pledged to tame inflation as he seeks to restore investor confidence after the nation''s benchmark stock index lost more than half its value this year.

Inflation ``will be brought down to a one-digit figure in 2009 or early 2010,'''' Dung, 58, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Washington late yesterday.

The government, which caps gasoline prices to keep fuel affordable for Vietnamese, won''t raise fuel costs in June and will take into account global crude levels when deciding on any increase in July, Finance Minister Vu Van Ninh said on June 15 at the World Economic Forum on East Asia in Kuala Lumpur.

Capital Controls

The State Bank of Vietnam weakened the dong by 2 percent on June 11 to prevent currency speculation and raised interest rates to 14 percent from 12 percent to cool inflation.

Stocks in the Southeast Asian nation have slumped almost 60 percent this year, the world''s worst performance, and the dong is set for its biggest drop since 2001, falling 3.8 percent.

Vietnam''s ``extensive'''' capital controls and the management of its currency will prevent overseas investors from fleeing the nation even as inflation accelerates and economic growth slows, Ping Chew, the Singapore-based head of Asian sovereign and corporate ratings at Standard & Poor''s, said last week.

The central bank announced today that it will widen the trading band for the dong. Starting tomorrow, the currency will be allowed to trade up to 2 percent on either side of a daily reference rate the central bank sets for the dong against the dollar, from 1 percent now.

S&P was the first of three ratings companies to lower Vietnam''s credit outlook to negative, saying the country''s overheating economy was a risk to stability.

Prices in the category that includes construction materials jumped 23.7 percent in June from a year earlier and 1.9 percent month-on-month. Prices in the category that includes transportation climbed 14.9 percent year-on-year.

tháng 7, điều tồi tệ nhất sẽ diễn ra

Liệu nền KT toàn cầu có bắt đầu bước vào giai đoạn ngủ đông giữa mùa hè?

Japan Consumption, Inflation Reports Stoke Recession Concern
By Mayumi Otsuma and Toru Fujioka

June 27 (Bloomberg) -- Japan''s household spending slumped, job vacancies fell to a three-year low and the inflation rate almost doubled, signaling that the economy''s longest postwar expansion may be over.

Stocks fell and bonds rose on concern that record crude oil prices will damp demand for Japan''s cars and flat-panel televisions. The risk of a recession will probably prevent the Bank of Japan from raising its benchmark interest rate from 0.5 percent even as inflation accelerates worldwide.

``We''re clearly seeing that the household sector is being severely damaged by the weaker job market and rapid inflation,'''' said Takahide Kiuchi, chief economist at Nomura Securities Co. in Tokyo. ``Japan''s economy is likely to contract in the second quarter.''''

Household spending declined 3.2 percent, the most since September 2006, the statistics bureau said. The ratio of jobs for each applicant slid to 0.92. Core consumer prices, which exclude fruit, fish and vegetables, climbed 1.5 percent from a year earlier after rising 0.9 percent in April.

The government downgraded its assessment of industrial production even after a report today showed output rose 2.9 percent from a month earlier, the first increase in three months. Production is showing signs of weakness because of higher energy costs and weakening global demand, the Trade Ministry said.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average tumbled 2.2 percent as of 9:54 a.m. in Tokyo. The yield on Japan''s 10-year bond fell 4.5 basis points to 1.61 percent. The yen traded at 106.90 per dollar from 106.88 before the reports were published.

Bank of Japan

``With the economy slowing, the central bank cannot raise interest rates anytime soon,'''' said Tomoko Fujii, head of economics and strategy for Japan at Bank of America Corp.

Oil prices have doubled in the past year, and surged to a record $140.39 a barrel yesterday. Higher energy and raw- materials costs will drag large manufacturers'' confidence to the lowest level in almost five years, economists predict the Bank of Japan''s Tankan business survey to show on July 1.

First-quarter profits fell at the fastest pace since the economy emerged from its last recession in 2002.

Honda Motor Co., Japan''s second-largest carmaker, said yesterday its domestic output and exports both fell 12 percent last month because of slower sales in the U.S. and the U.K.

Higher prices for steel, rubber and aluminum have increased production costs at companies including Nissan Motor Co. Those costs are ``practically impossible to absorb,'''' Nissan''s Chief Executive Officer Carlos Ghosn told shareholders this week.

Outlook `Uncertain''

Japan''s economic outlook is increasingly ``uncertain,'''' central bank policy board member Seiji Nakamura said yesterday, citing the risk of slower global growth and the increase in energy and raw-materials costs. The bank is concerned higher prices may cause businesses and consumers to spend less, he said.

``Today''s economic data pointed to growing risks of stagflation,'''' said Mamoru Yamazaki, chief Japan economist at RBS Securities in Tokyo. ``Japan''s economy may fall into a recession.''''

Higher food and fuel costs are forcing companies to raise prices that aren''t being accepted by consumers.

Yamazaki Baking Co. and Nisshin Seifun Group Inc. raised prices of bread, cakes and pasta this year because of higher wheat costs. Consumers spent 5.9 percent less on bread and 6.1 percent less on pasta in May after makers raised prices, the statistics bureau said.

Prices of daily necessities are climbing faster than wages, causing consumer sentiment to plunge to a six-year low in May. The unemployment rate stayed at 4 percent last month, the government said today.

``With profits being increasingly squeezed, there''s no room for companies to raise wages anytime soon,'''' said Hiroaki Muto, a senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co. in Tokyo.

kụ post thế bố ai đọc kịp