VietNam Monitor Issue 21 - Growth to slow further, inflation to collapse in 2009

By Jason Folkmanis
Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnamese stocks are no longer worth
buying by foreign investors because 2009 growth prospects have
weakened and the equity market?Ts ?olong-term attractiveness? is
doubtful, HSBC Holdings Plc said.
The Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchangê?Ts VN Index tumbled 66
percent last year, and HSBC is predicting a 5 percent decline
for 2009. More than a quarter of the companies trading on the
exchange may be moved to a smaller bourse in Hanoi because they
fail to meet minimum capital requirements, the State Securities
Commission said yesterday.
Out of 15 countries or territories covered in a report on
Asian equities, Vietnam is the only one for which London-based
HSBC gives a ?ono weight? recommendation. Vietnam?Ts government
is hoping that a stock market revival may breathe life into its
plans to raise more revenue by accelerating the sale of shares
in state companies.
?oVietnam is no longer investible for mainstream
international investment institutions,? wrote Garry Evans, a Hong
Kong-based strategist at HSBC. ?oVietnamese companies?T earnings
are highly non-transparent, and massive macro policy errors last
year put the long-term attractiveness of the market in doubt.?
?oFurthermore, Vietnam?Ts high dependence on foreign direct
investment flows and exports means that 2009 growth is under
significant pressure,? Evans wrote in the report, dated Jan. 5.

Inflation, Trade Deficit

The report didn?Tt cite any errors related to Vietnam?Ts
economic policies, and Evans declined to comment when reached by
telephone. Vietnam?Ts inflation rate reached 28.3 percent in
August, the highest since at least 1992, according to the
General Statistics Office, which also last week released a
preliminary estimate that the country posted a record $17.5
billion trade deficit last year.
Vietnam?Ts economic growth rate last year was 6.2 percent,
the lowest since 1999. Vietnam?Ts government is targeting 6.5
percent growth in 2009, and is planning to introduce an economic
stimulus package to try to reach the goal.
Gross domestic product expansion in the country will
probably fall short of that goal, reaching 5.4 percent in 2009,
according to the report, which also said Vietnam?Ts bourse is
hampered by a lack of stocks of sufficient market capitalization
to interest foreigners.
?oWhen risk appetite does come back to global markets,
there are other markets in Asia that look more attractive as a
first entry-point,? Evans said in the report, which cited China,
India and Singapore as countries in which HSBC has an
?ooverweight? recommendation for equities.
?oVietnam?Ts entrepreneurial spirit and appealing
demographics will make this market interesting again one day,
but not for the next few quarters,? wrote Evans.

HSBC?Ts Expansion

Although Evans sees no opportunities for foreign investors
in Vietnam?Ts stock markets in 2009, HSBC this week said it
plans to add more branches in the Southeast Asian nation to take
advantage of rising incomes.
HSBC plans to open a new branch in the southern province
of Binh Duong, and more offices in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City
in the first quarter, Thomas Tobin, the bank?Ts country head,
said at a press conference in Ho Chi Minh City on Jan. 5.

T.ng hợp.....thằng HSBC này 'i nói xấu VN v>i cả thế gi>i nào là nfm 2009, TTCk chiếm zero % trong khuyến nghi 2008

Nó nói Vi?t Nam k có cỈ hTi 'ầu tỈ, nhỈng lại có kế hốch mY thêm chi nhánh Y VN

"Ngoài ra CP vẫn quyết áp thuế CK mà không quan tâm đến tình hình TTCK và ưu tiên phát triển TT sẽ làm TTCK khó tăng"
Cái này ko đáng bao nhiêu nhưng Khoai Tây trừ điểm tầm nhìn, chính sách ngay

thế theo HSBC bán sàn đi nhé

Thằng này cũng củ chuối bỏ mẹ.......bị Madoff lừa 1 tỷ chứ ít đâu......

Nó lại lừa ta

gì thế , dạo này làm ăn sao?

Tên này có biết tí tiếng Anh nào đâu mà cũng đòi dịch


HSBC dự báo cuối năm 2008 là 400 điểm giờ là 300

Sau nó đổi sang cuối năm 2009 là 300 chắc VNI là 400 quá

Điểm mấu chốt trong bài viết của thằng Garry Evans vẫn là P/E forward cho thị trường việt nam năm 2009 để kết luận.
DCM bản thân nền kinh tế Việt nam vẫn tăng trưởng hơn 5%. Các doanh nghiệp niêm yết là các doanh nghiệp tiêu biểu của nền kinh tế. Nó chỉ dựa vào mỗi câu không minh bạch lấy ngay con số -10% cho năm 2009.
DCM thằng này bốc thuốc.
Các bác thử điện hỏi nó xem nó lấy số -10% ở đâu mà sao nó ngu thế.

Email và số điện thoại của thằng Garry Evans viết phần Thị trường chứng khoán đây:
garryevans@hsbc.com.hk
+852 2996 6916