Giá dầu lần này bung nóc 60$ rôi - Dầu đá phiến đã bị thổi phồng quá mức

Giá dầu lần này bung nóc 60$ rôi - Dầu đá phiến đã bị thổi phồng quá mức
Kinh tế thế giới hồi phục, nhu cầu dầu tăng cao cho sản xuất vũ khí và chiến tranh.

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PVS = 4x
PVC = 3x
GAS = 100x

Oil prices end lower in volatile trading after supply, output reports

An earlier version of this report incorrectly characterized the settlement direction of oil prices. The story has been corrected.

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U.S. shale producers are undermining OPEC’s efforts to rebalance oil market, IEA says.
Oil settled higher Thursday as recent crude supply and production data fueled volatile trading in the energy market, with U.S. and global benchmark prices recouping most of what they lost a day earlier.

The International Energy Agency reported Thursday global oil supply has jumped to a one-year high as U.S. shale producers roar back to life, while data from the Energy Information Administration Wednesday showed a bigger-than-expected weekly drop in U.S. crude inventories, along with a climb in domestic production to its highest weekly level on record at the EIA.

Natural-gas prices, meanwhile, touched its lowest intraday levels since February as a weekly decline in U.S. supplies of the fuel was a lot smaller than the five-year average.

January West Texas Intermediate crude CLF8, +0.58% rose 44 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $57.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after losing about 1% on Wednesday. Brent oil for February LCOG8, +0.36% added 87 cents, or 1.4%, to $63.31 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, buoyed by the recent North Sea pipeline closure, after losing roughly that same amount a day earlier.




“Oil is typically quite messy in the last portion of the year,” Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service, told MarketWatch.


He believes that WTI “probably hit a multimonth top when it got around $59.50 [a barrel] on Black Friday, and the Brent market spiked earlier this week because of the Forties Pipeline issue and the lost barrels.”

On Thursday, multinational chemicals group Ineos said it is too early to say how long the repairs to the pipeline will take to complete, following the discovery of a leak last week.

Read: North Sea pipeline shutdown puts oil traders on edge

Both oil benchmarks had been climbing Thursday before the IEA in a monthly oil report said global oil supplies rose by 170,000 barrels a day in November to 97.8 million barrels a day—the highest in a year—undermining the OPEC-led cuts to rebalance the market. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and a group of non-cartel countries led by Russia two weeks ago agreed to extend their output cuts until the end of 2018.

The IEA said OPEC production declined for a fourth straight month, but also warned that “2018 might not be quite so happy for OPEC producers” as supply growth could exceed demand growth by 200,000 barrels a day in the first half.

“There is no doubt that shale oil producers will produce more next year, but the question really is how much more,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. “Many in the oil industry feel very strongly that agencies are overestimating current and future shale output. That’s why the knee-jerk reaction to these big picture reports are short lived.”

Natural-gas prices, meanwhile, declined after the EIA said supplies of the fuel fell by 69 billion cubic feet for the week ended Dec. 8—bigger than the 63 billion cubic foot decline forecast by analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts, but smaller than the five-year average withdrawal is 78 billion.

January natural gas NGF18, +1.04% lost 3.1 cents, or 1.1%, to $2.684 per million British thermal units. It fell to as low as $2.643, the lowest intraday level since the second half of February.

In other energy products on Thursday, January gasoline RBF8, +0.82% rose 1.5% to $1.671 a gallon, while January heating oil HOF8, +0.30% rose 0.3% to $1.91 a gallon.

Kloza said “gasoline will be extremely bipolar in the next 100-120 days,” as refiners “struggle to make any profit on gasoline in the seven bulk markets where it commonly trades”—including New York and the Gulf Coast.

Retail gasoline prices “will soon dip to where they were in mid-August before hurricanes changed the playing field,” he said.