Bác Ben phát biểu gi thế mà dầu giảm, mễ đang âm -100 gờ xanh lè rùi

Bác Ben phát biểu gi thế mà dầu giảm, mễ đang âm -100 gờ xanh lè rùi

July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said risks to both U.S. growth and inflation have increased, abandoning officials'' June assessment that threats to the expansion had ``diminished somewhat.''''

There are ``significant downside risks to the outlook for growth,'''' and ``upside risks to the inflation outlook have intensified,'''' Bernanke said in semiannual testimony on the economy to the Senate Banking Committee in Washington.

Bernanke''s shift reflects renewed turmoil in markets that forced the Treasury and Fed to mount a rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac this week. He said that stabilizing financial markets remains ``a top priority,''''

The Fed chief spoke less than two hours after government figures showed that the economic boost from U.S. tax rebates began to fade in June and inflation pressures increased. The dollar and stocks extended declines in the minutes after Bernanke''s remarks, before recouping some losses.

``Clearly, policy is on hold,'''' said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a former Fed economist. ``They are relatively concerned about the second half of the year.''''

Energy Impact

Bernanke cited higher energy prices, reduced access to credit and a further deepening in the housing recession as dangers to growth. At the same time, he said: ``We must be particularly alert to any indications, such as an erosion of longer-term inflation expectations, that the inflationary impulses from commodity prices are becoming embedded'''' in wages and prices.

The Standard & Poor''s 500 Index dropped to its lowest level since 2005, and was down 1.3 percent at 1,211.51 at 11 a.m. in New York. The U.S. currency was at 1.5970 per euro after reaching a record low earlier in the day.

Retail sales rose 0.1 percent from the previous month, the Commerce Department reported today, less than economists forecast. Producer prices jumped 1.8 percent, the most since November, the Labor Department said. From a year ago, prices climbed 9.2 percent, a surge unseen since 1981.

Bernanke''s comments today are his first on monetary policy and the economic outlook since the Federal Open Market Committee''s June 25 decision to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2 percent, pausing after seven cuts totaling 3.25 percentage points since September.

``Helping the financial markets return to more normal functioning will continue to be a top priority of the Federal Reserve,'''' the Fed chairman said.

Fannie, Freddie

The comments come two days after the Treasury and Fed moved to provide a backstop for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which have fallen more than 45 percent in six days.

Bernanke said consumer spending is ``likely to be restrained over coming quarters,'''' and businesses are ``likely to be cautious with their spending in the second half of the year.''''

Federal tax rebates provided ``timely support'''' for strained households, he said. That''s helped household spending hold up better than was forecast, he added.

Declines in home prices ``have contributed to the rising tide of foreclosures,'''' the Fed chairman said. ``Foreclosures have, in turn, intensified the downward pressure on home prices in some areas.''''

In new forecasts, Fed officials raised their projections for economic growth and inflation for this year, while reiterating their outlook for faster growth in 2009.

New Forecasts

Fed governors and district bank presidents now see the economy expanding 1 percent to 1.6 percent this year, up from 0.3 percent to 1.2 percent in their April outlook. Consumer prices will rise 3.8 percent to 4.2 percent this year compared with a projected range of 3.1 percent to 3.4 percent in April. The economy should expand at a 2 percent to 2.8 percent rate in 2009, identical to the April forecasts.

Risks to the economic outlook have risen after the Standard and Poor''s Financials Index dropped 17 percent and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest sources of U.S. home financing, slumped. Four days ago, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. took over IndyMac Bancorp Inc. as the California lender collapsed under soaring losses.

``Most participants viewed the risks to their projections for gross domestic product growth as weighted to the downside,'''' the Fed said in a section of its monetary policy report where it describes the forecasts. ``Most participants viewed the risks to their inflation projections as weighted to the upside.''''

Risks to Outlook

Uncertainty in the forecasts was ``higher than normal,'''' the Fed said, due to the ``duration and effects'''' of financial strains on growth and ``the extent of pass-through'''' of commodity prices to core inflation. Bernanke said that pass- through so far has been ``limited.''''

The economy grew at an annualized rate of 1 percent in the first quarter, capping the weakest six months in five years. Financial turbulence is crimping credit to housing markets and businesses, while a near doubling of oil prices in the past year has pushed consumer expectations of inflation higher.

``The effects of the housing contraction and of the financial headwinds on spending and economic activity have been compounded by rapid increases in the prices of energy and other commodities, which have sapped household purchasing power,'''' Bernanke said.

American households foresee average annual inflation of 3.4 percent over the next five years, the highest expectation since 1995, according to the Reuters/University of Michigan survey.

`Temporarily Higher''

``Inflation seems likely to move temporarily higher in the near term,'''' Bernanke said.

Bernanke''s hearing today will be ``brief'''' in order to accommodate a second gathering with him, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox. Democratic Senator Christopher Dodd of Connecticut, who chairs the committee, set the second hearing yesterday to address financial markets.

Tomorrow, Bernanke appears before the House Financial Services Committee for the second day of his semiannual testimony.

The Federal Open Market Committee next meets Aug. 5 in Washington. Investors expect the central bank to leave the overnight interbank lending rate unchanged at 2 percent again. Traders see a 59 percent chance of an increase to 2.25 percent or higher by the end of the year, based on futures prices.

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