Bloomberg: PXP nhan dinh VNI co the dat 300 diem thang sau

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Vietnam Index May Rally 19% as Sentiment Improves, PXP Says
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By Jason Folkmanis

March 10 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnam?Ts benchmark stock market index may rally as much as 19 percent to reach the 300 mark in the next month, as investors focus on earnings rather than the global economy, PXP Vietnam Asset Management said.

The Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange?Ts VN Index has gained in seven of the last 10 trading days, adding 7 percent over the period. Today, the VN Index jumped 1.6 percent, its biggest gain since Feb. 25, to close at 251.88, the highest level since Feb. 20. The last time the index closed above 300 was Jan. 23, the last trading day before Vietnam?Ts Tet Lunar New Year holiday.

Some stocks are trading at about five times their earnings and have a good chance of delivering profit growth, PXP Vietnam Fund Ltd. said last month. Coupled with a recent improvement in investor sentiment, the VN Index, which has lost about a fifth of its value in the year to date, may be due for a rebound, PXP said in a note sent yesterday.

?oInvestors are beginning to seek reasons to be more positive,? wrote Kevin Snowball, Ho Chi Minh City-based chief executive officer of PXP Vietnam Asset Management. ?oWe expect the VN Index, notwithstanding apparent technical resistance at the 250-point level, to stage a rally toward 300.?

Today?Ts gain came after a decline in major American markets yesterday. Still, any rally past the 300 mark would be dependent on global sentiment and the impact on Vietnam of prospects for any recovery in the world economy, Snowball wrote.

Global Correlation

?oVietnam?Ts correlation to global markets in a mathematical sense is not too strong, but the VN Index does react to sharp movements in the Dow in either direction sometimes,? Snowball said in e-mailed comments.

DWS Vietnam Fund Ltd. told investors in its latest monthly note that Vietnam?Ts macroeconomic landscape is improving, and that recession in many parts of the globe will probably result in a ?osubdued economic scenario for Vietnam, not a bleak and dire one.?

Some Vietnamese companies posted ?oimpressive results? last year, HSBC Holdings Plc said in a note last week that cited two companies that are among the 10 biggest holdings of PXP Vietnam Fund: Vietnam Dairy Products Joint-Stock Co. and PetroVietnam Drilling & Well Services Joint-Stock Co.

While many companies in Vietnam recorded strong sales growth last year, write-offs on property and equity investments pushed down overall profits, wrote Garry Evans, a Hong Kong-based HSBC strategist.
?oSome quality companies produced decent results and now look attractively valued,? Evans wrote, in a note dated March 4.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Folkmanis in Ho Chi Minh City at folkmanis@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: March 10, 2009 00:52 EDT