BMI dự báo GDP 2.9%, có vẻ không như mong đợi nhỉ

để mai đọc tóm tăt vài dòng, nhưng nói chung là còn quá nhiều rủi ro phía trước

As expected, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) on January 23 effected another aggressive
interest rate cut, bringing the benchmark base rate down by 150bps to 7.00% on the back
of increasing downside risks to growth in 2009. This constitutes a halving of the policy
rate, which was raised to 14.00% in June 2008, as the SBV has, in line with other Asian
central banks, rapidly shifted its focus from curbing inflation to cushioning the effects of
the ongoing slowdown in growth. The central bank also lowered the refinancing rate from
9.50% to 8.00% and the discount rate from 7.50% to 6.00%.
While the threats to the highly export-dependent Vietnamese economy cannot be disputed,
we see a risk that aggressive monetary easing will result in inflation, which dropped from
19.9% y-o-y in December 2008 to 17.5% y-o-y in January 2009, remaining in elevated
territory for an extended period of time. Indeed, m-o-m inflation returned to positive territory
in January (+0.32%) after four months of falling prices, mildly allaying fears of a
continued period of deflation discouraging investment and consumption.
However, the return of price growth to positive territory can to a large extent be explained
by the Tet effect, in which prices are driven up by households stocking up on food and other
merchandise ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year, which fell between January 26 and 29
this year. Accordingly, the rise in prices was led by a 0.39% m-o-m rise in food and foodstuff
prices, which carries a 42.8% weighting in the overall index. However, this constituted a
considerably more moderate increase than in previous January readings suggesting that
Vietnamese consumers are tightening their belts ahead of a challenging year.
Indeed, an abysmal industrial production reading in January, which contracted by 4.4%
y-o-y (and a full 8.6% m-o-m), has only underscored the threats to growth in 2009. We
revised down our 2009 growth forecast to 5.0% in October 2008, and further to 2.9%
in February on the back of our prognoses of 2.3% and 3.1% contractions in the US and
Japan respectively.
The two G3 economies

giờ mà cứ nghe các thông tin dự báo này thì chỉ có ăn cám

BDS sụp đổ GDP sẽ âm nặng, dương vẫn còn quá cao

Chú biết thì nói, không biết thì ngồi nghe đi. Chú thử giở lại lịch sử kinh tế VN đi xem BĐS đóng góp cho GDP bao nhiêu phần trăm hay chủ yếu vẫn nhờ xuất khẩu. Ai chẳng biết kinh tế năm nay quá nhiều khó khăn nhưng với một nền kinh tế nhỏ như thế này thì tăng trưởng 5% không quá khó...

Chỉ có điều là VNI vẫn cứ tèo còn nếu muốn vẫn vớ đc hàng ngon. Thế thôi...