Chỉ vào hàng khi có tín hiệu tích cực thật sự

Này thì châu Mỹ

Này thì châu Á, tàn hoa, xác cành lá cũng mất

thế QNC có vào được không ???

Lại còn hút được 2000 tỉ trái phiếu thì tiền đâu để chứng khoán lên

Trái phiếu Chính phủ kỳ hạn 2 năm “đắt khách”

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▪ NGUYỆT ANH
17:42 (GMT+7) - Thứ Năm, 20/5/2010
HNX vừa thông báo kết quả đấu thầu trái phiếu Chính phủ do Kho bạc Nhà nước phát hành, được tổ chức vào ngày 20/5/2010


Sở Giao dịch Chứng khoán Hà Nội (HNX) thông báo kết quả đấu thầu trái phiếu Chính phủ do Kho bạc Nhà nước phát hành, được tổ chức vào ngày 20/5/2010.

Theo đó, tổng khối lượng gọi thầu kỳ hạn hai năm là 2.000 tỷ đồng, có 20 thành viên tham gia dự thầu với tổng số tiền đăng ký đấu thầu hợp lệ là 7.825 tỷ đồng. Lãi suất đăng ký cao nhất là 12%/năm, lãi suất đăng ký thấp nhất là 10,50%/năm và lãi suất trúng thầu là 10,90%/năm. Kết quả, khối lượng trúng thầu là 2.000 tỷ đồng.

Tổng số tiền thanh toán trái phiếu trúng thầu là 2.000 tỷ đồng. Trái phiếu được phát hành vào ngày 24/5/2010, đáo hạn ngày 24/5/2010 với mệnh giá 100.000 đồng/trái phiếu.

Thật lòng, nếu xét QNC và các cổ phiếu khác thì nên mua QNC, đà rơi chắc chắn rất ít.

Nếu có tiền mặt và QNC, em nghĩ nên giũ tiền mặt, ít nhất cũng có thể mua đc QNC với mức giá rẻ hơn bây h 3-5%

Dow Jones đã giảm > 200 điểm, em đã ko hiểu có chuyện gì để các bố nhà mình đánh lên sớm và mạnh như thế. Hóa ra đánh ra để thoát hàng, thị trường thế giới cực xấu.

Châu Âu có thể vỡ nợ. Đồng tiền chung châu âu mà biến mất, thì cả thế giới này rơi phải cuộc khủng hoảng tồi tệ nhất trong lịch sử loài người.

Chinese inflation might be out of control

By Daryl G. Jones, contributorMay 19, 2010: 1:40 PM ET


(FORTUNE) -- One of the most popular debates in global macro circles currently relates to China and whether its economy is in a bubble. On the side of the bubble callers is one of the more successful short sellers of our generation, James Chanos. Admittedly, Chanos is usually on the right side of these big calls and, for the time being, I'm not going to debate him. Great Chinese bubble debate aside for now, how does Chanos's theory hold up in light of the data we've been reviewing?
Data from various sources within China that we've seen over the past few weeks has pointed us directly toward one simple conclusion: China is experiencing serious inflation. Some of the keys for us include:

• Chinese CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) are up 2.8% and 6.8%, respectively, year-over-year. Combined, this is the largest spike in combined inflation in 18 months;

• Chinese property prices, based on a survey of 70 cities, were up 12.8% year-over-year in April, which is the largest spike since 2005;

• Chinese money supply growth was up 21.5% year-over-year in April;

• Chinese loan growth was up 51% sequentially from March to April at 774B Yuan; and

• Chinese industrial production was up 17.9% on a year-over-year basis in April.

While economists in the United States continue to argue over whether the U.S. is experiencing meaningful inflation, there's little room for debate when it comes to China.

The direction in China: up

Prices for consumers and producers are up, real estate prices are up double digits, and money supply is accelerating in a big way. The key factor is money supply. If it continues to grow, inflation will continue to accelerate.

The beauty of the Chinese system, being a command economy, is that the leadership of the country can make real time economic decisions to adjust to the data they're getting. And we are already seeing Chinese leadership implement policies in the hopes of tempering these inflationary tailwinds.

On the real estate front, the government has ordered 78 state-controlled companies to exit the real estate sector, banks are newly requiring a 50% down payment on second homes, and the Chinese government mandates 20% cash down at land auctions. Collectively, these actions should help slow the white-hot Chinese real estate market.

The other key policy that Chinese government is implementing relates to bank loans. After a period in 1998 where the Chinese banking system was in effect insolvent, Chinese officials are rightfully cautious about rampant loan growth, for more than inflationary reasons. To combat bad loans and hopefully stymie inflation, reserve requirement have been raised three times for Chinese banks. Currently they're at 17% for large banks and 15% for smaller banks -- just under the all time high for reserves. In effect the government is forcing banks to park some money, making loans for the booming property market harder to come by.
At risk of actually creating a bubble, Chinese officials cannot allow these inflationary factors to pick up speed. Therefore Chinese officials will likely continue to take policy actions to slow growth and cool inflation. These policies will have some predictable effects. But the most direct and knowable effect relate to commodities.

Chinese citizens have negative incentive to save: sound familiar?

China is the world's largest producer of steel, and also consumes almost one-third of all global steel. As construction slows in China, the demand for steel and specific commodities related to construction, copper in particular, will slow on the margin. Any slowdown in Chinese demand will create a negative headwind for the prices of many of the commodities related to construction, but will also affect other commodities, like oil.

As of now, the Chinese economy is signaling the need for more aggressive tightening based on the points above. But there is also the reality of negative real interest rates. Currently, the consumer price index is outpacing the one-year interest rate on savings of 2.25%, meaning the Chinese have no incentive to save any money. The two policies needed to offset inflation are an increase in interest rates and an upward revaluation of the Yuan. Both actions would help slow Chinese growth and commodity demand further in the coming months.

What worries Chinese economic planners considering these fixes is that rather than just slow down and control growth, they have the potential of "popping" the bubble, making Jim Chanos a happy man but also causing serious damage to China's export heavy economy. China would like to have it both ways right now: rapid growth and wealth creation, but also the safety of a properly valued, non-inflationary economy. That's a tough task: nearly every time we've seen this movie before, the ending is the same.

Daryl G. Jones is the Managing Director of Risk Management at Hedgeye, a research firm based in New Haven, Conn. His colleagues Darius Dale also contributed to this column.

Ôm xèng cuối tuần cho thanh thản. Thà đua trần trong uptren còn hơn mò đáy dowtren

Investor fear is back

By Alexandra Twin, senior writerMay 20, 2010: 8:25 AM ET


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- What a difference a month makes.
Roughly four weeks ago, the Dow (INDU) was at an 18-month high, Wall Street's fear gauge, the VIX (VIX), was at a three-year low and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was flirting with 4% as investors poured money into stocks.









Meanwhile, the euro was still falling apart on worries about Greece and the European debt crisis. Gold and other commodity prices were still rising. But investors weren't panicked. Strong corporate earnings and signs that the recovery was underway tempered worries about global markets, currencies and commodities.

One month later and investors have done a complete 180. A $1 trillion European aid package failed to assuage worries about Greece and other struggling European nations. Those fears sent the euro spiraling to a four-year low and set off all kinds of alarms for market participants.

Now, the yield on the benchmark 10-year note is closer to 3% than 4%. "Investors are flocking to bonds because they're scared," said Madeline Schnapp, Director of Macroeconomic research at mutual fund tracker Trim Tabs. And the recent record run on gold "is a vote of no confidence in the euro."
Fear factors

U.S. stocks are down: Markets were already wobbling ahead of the flash crash of May 6, when the Dow plunged nearly 1,000 points during its worst intraday session ever. Since then, stocks have zigzagged, with the Dow posting a series of triple-digit swings as investors struggle to find their footing.
Since peaking at 17-month highs in late April, the Dow has lost 6% and the broader S&P 500 has lost 8%. The Nasdaq reached a 22-month high in late April and has since fallen 9%.

European and Asian stocks are down: Global markets have had it even worse than markets in the United States. The British FTSE 100 is down 10% since late April, the French CAC 40 is down 12% and the German DAX is off 5%.
The Shanghai Composite index has lost nearly 15% in the last month, briefly entering bear territory, while the Japanese Nikkei has lost 10%. Asian markets have been hammered by the European crisis and the euro's weakness too, but the region has concerns of its own. Higher inflationary pressure in China is causing the government to slow down the pace of growth and some investors are worried they'll take it too far. Japan's economy grew in the first quarter, but less than expected, adding to the pressure.

Volatility is rising: After a relatively calm period following the 2008-early 2009 whiplash, volatility has returned.
Wall Street's fear factor, the CBOE Volatility index (the VIX), closed at a 13-month high of $40.95 two weeks ago and has seesawed since then. Currently it stands in the mid-30s, up 125% from the three-year low of $15.58 it hit in mid-April.

Bonds still buoyant: Investors are flocking to bonds, seen as a safe spot to park their cash in times of economic uncertainty. A month ago, the yield on the 10-year note was nearing 4%, sparking concerns that a period of higher rates would hurt the still-germinating housing market recovery. Not so now.
The yield on the 10-year currently stands at 3.35% and experts expect it to keep falling. (As bond prices rise, the corresponding yields fall).

0:00 /2:34Investing for long-term profits
Gold rising, oil slipping: Investors worldwide have been buying up gold as a safe-haven alternative to the battered euro but also as a hedge against inflation. Gold closed at a record $1,243.10 an ounce last week. It's backed off since then and some analysts think it could be in for a major plunge in the next two years.
Meanwhile, oil, copper and other commodity prices have been falling on worries about the global economy.

Other factors: Bank-to-bank lending rates have been on the rise, including Libor, the London Interbank offered rate. 3-month Libor edged up to 0.48% Wednesday from 0.31% a month ago. However, Libor rates remain far below the 10-year high of 3.77% hit in late September 2008 at the height of the crisis.

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