Chứng Khoán Chấu Á tăng điểm ba phiên tiên tiếp

Mình mới sưu tầm dược một cuốn sách rất có ích cho các bạn làm môi giới và đầu tư tài chính bản nào cần thì PM cho noname


TABLE OF CONTENTS

PART ONE GETTING STARTED 1

Chapter 1 The Analysis Process 3

Finding Candidates 4
Analyzing Stocks 4
Quick Prequalify 4
Detailed Analysis 7

When to Sell 11
Summary 11

F ir e Your Stock Analyst!

Chapter 2 Evaluating Risk 13

Market Valuation 15
Market Direction 18
Spotting Strong Industries in a Weak Market 19
Company-Specific Risks 19
Company-Specific Risks Described in Subsequent
Chapters 23
Summary 24

Chapter 3 Screening 27

Quicken Growth Screen 28
Quicken Value Screen 32
?oMSN Money? Down & Out Value Stock Finder 34
Multex Investor Bulletproof Stocks 37
The Zen of Screening 40
Premade Screens 40
Summary 41

PART TWO ANALYSIS TOOLS 43

Chapter 4 Analysis Tool #1: Analyzing Analysts?T Data 45

Who Are the Analysts? 46
Analysts?T Ratings 47
?oSell? Is a Four-Letter Word 47
Consensus Ratings 49
Do Strong Buys Outperform Sells? 50
Number of Analysts 52
Sentiment Index 53
Analysts?T Estimates 56


Forecast EPS Trend 58
Earnings Surprise 61
Sales Forecasts 62
Regulation FD 64
Research Reports 64
Summary 65

Chapter 5 Analysis Tool #2: Valuation 67

Implied Growth 68
Growth at a Reasonable Price 73
Dividends 77
Summary 77


Chapter 6 Analysis Tool #3: Establishing Target Prices 79

The Process 80
Cisco Systems 88
Summary 93
The Business 95


Chapter 7 Analysis Tool #4: Industry Analysis 95

Industry Growth Outlook 96
Industry Concentration 99
Picking Winners in an Emerging Fragmented Industry
101
Industry Scuttlebutt 107
Summary 107


Chapter 8 Analysis Tool #5: Business Plan Analysis 109

Introduction 110
Overblown Competitive Advantages 118
Business Plan Score Scorecard 120
Summary 120
Key Executive and Board Quality 123

Chapter 9 Analysis Tool # 6: Management Quality 123

Clean Accounting 125
Earnings Growth Stability 127
Stock Ownership 127
Summary 128
Financial Fitness Counts 129


Chapter 10 Analysis Tool #7: Financial
Fitness Evaluator 129

Pinpointing Financially Challenged Companies 130
Simplify the Problem 131
Low Debt 131
Detecting Potential Busted Cash Burners 133
Detailed Fiscal Fitness Exam 139
Bond Ratings 159
Use Bond Risk Premiums to Identify Risky Debtors 162
Summary 166

Chapter 11 Analysis Tool #8: Profitability Analysis 169

Where Do Earnings Come From? 170
Analyzing Sales (Revenue) History 171
Analyzing Margins 178
Gross Margin 178
Operating Margin 179
Net Profit Margin 180
Comparing Margins 180
Gross Margins 180
Operating Margins 182
Analyzing Margins 184
High vs. Low Margins 186
Analyzing Overhead Expenses 188
Profitability Ratios 189
Return on Equity 189


Return on Capital 194
Return on Assets 195
Marginal Return on Assets 198
Cash Flow Analysis 199
Working Capital Changes 200
Cash Tells the Story 200
Dubious Allocations 201
Using Operating Cash Flow 202
Free Cash Flow 203
Quarterly Cash Flow Reports 205
EBITDA vs. Operating Cash Flow 206
Free EBITDA 208
Summary 209


Chapter 12 Analysis Tool #9: Detecting Red Flags 211

Sales Growth Trends 213
Accounts Receivables & Inventories 217
Inventory Analysis 221
Statement of Cash Flows 225
Pension Plan Income 228
Yellow Flags 229
Summary 232
Institutional Ownership 235
Institutional Percentage of Shares Outstanding 235


Chapter 13 Step 10: Ownership Considerations 235

Insider Ownership 237
Float 237
Insider Holdings 238
Summary 240
Trends 241

Chapter 14 Tool # 11: Price Charts 241

Moving Averages 243
Avoid Downtrends 245
The Risk Zone 246
Chart Types 246
Trading Volume 247
Summary 248

PART THREE THE ANALYSIS PROCESS 249

Chapter 15 Quick Prequalify 251

Company Overview 252
Snapshot Report 253
Valuation Ratios 254
Highlights Report 257
Ratio Comparison 257
Check the Buzz 259
Summary 260

Chapter 16 Value Investing: The Process 261

Cycles 262
Normalizing 263
Value Analysis Process 263
Step 1: Analysts?T Ratings & Forecasts 264
Step 2: Valuation 266
Step 3: Target Price Ranges 270
Step 4: Industry Analysis 275
Step 5: Business Plan Analysis 276
Step 6: Management Quality 278
Step 7: Financial Health 279
Step 8: Profitability Analysis 280
Step 9: Red Flags 283

Step 10: Ownership 284
Step 11: Charts 284
When to Sell 284
Summary 286

Chapter 17 Growth Investing: The Process 287

Growth Candidates 288
The Process 289
Step 1: Analysts?T Ratings & Forecasts 290
Step 2: Valuation 294
Step 3: Target Prices 296
Step 4: Industry Analysis 300
Step 5: Business Plan Analysis 302
Step 6: Management Quality 303
Step 7: Financial Health 305
Step 8: Profitability 307
Step 9: Red Flags 311
Step 10: Ownership 315
Step 11: Price Chart 316
Summary 317
When to Sell 317
Summary 319



PART FOUR MORE TOOLS 321


Chapter 18 Earnings Reports & Conference Calls 323

Reported Earnings 324
Summary 326

Chapter 19 Detecting Scams, Frauds, and Pump & Dump 327

Opportunity Knocks 328


Được noname123 sửa chữa / chuyển vào 17:22 ngày 25/01/2008

Được noname123 sửa chữa / chuyển vào 17:31 ngày 25/01/2008

chả bít tuần sau có lên ko,chả có tín hiệu gì khả quan

30 năm nay châu Á tăng liên tiếp, VN có tăng mấy đâu, ba ngày ăn thua gì bác. TT VN là không vội
=============================
offline: hợp tác xã đầu tư? Tại sao không?

Thị trường Châu Á đảo chiều ngoạn mục .Chỉ số CK tăng mạnh ở hầu hết các nước( ngoại trừ VN đang bị nhà đất lôi cuốn), Với những tín hiệu tín cực như Mỹ cắt giảm lãi suất và các công ty Châu Á báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh tăng trường cao đã kéo thị trường đi lên bất chấp thị trường Mỹ. Đó là những đấu hiệu cho thấy thị trường sẽ đi lên. Còn quá sớm để nói thị trường có tăng bền vững hay không nhưng trong ngắn hạn xu thế tăng là thấy rõ. Thị trường VN tăng điểm trong một tuần là các nhà đầu tư nhà đất sẽ quay lại sàn ngay .


Asian Stocks Climb on U.S. Economic Stimulus Plan; Banks Gain

By Chen Shiyin and Patrick Rial
Enlarge Image/Details

Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose, driving the region''s benchmark to its biggest gain in six years, after South Korea''s economy expanded faster than estimated and the U.S. moved closer to approving tax rebates.

Bank of Communications Ltd. surged after Morgan Stanley recommended investors buy shares of HSBC Holdings Plc''s Chinese affiliate. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world''s largest mining company, and PetroChina Co. advanced as copper, gold and crude oil prices rose. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is set for a 0.8 percent drop this week, even after a 10 percent, three-day rally spurred by the U.S. Federal Reserve''s emergency interest-rate cut.

``While stimulative policies aren''t going to have an immediate economic impact, they are bringing us close to the conclusion of recent turmoil,'''' said Koshi Kumagai, a Tokyo-based fund manager at BNP Paribas Asset Management, which manages about $438 billion in assets worldwide.

The MSCI''s Asian index climbed 4.4 percent to 145.59 at 5:03 p.m. in Tokyo, poised for its steepest gain since March 4, 2002, and adding to a two-day, 5.6 percent advance. Hong Kong''s Hang Seng Index surged 6.7 percent, the region''s biggest increase.

Japan''s Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 4.1 percent to 13,629.16, the biggest advance since March 2002. South Korea''s Kospi index climbed for a third day. Australia''s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose the most in a decade. The Philippine Stock Exchange Index surged after Moody''s Investors Service raised the debt rating outlook on the country to positive. All other Asian benchmarks gained.

Esprit Holdings Ltd. jumped in Hong Kong after business confidence unexpectedly rose in Germany, where the fashion retailer makes about half its sales. Wipro Ltd. paced gains by technology shares after Microsoft Corp., the world''s largest software maker, reported net income that topped analyst estimates.

Stimulus Plan

U.S. stocks rose yesterday, helping the Standard & Poor''s 500 Index to its biggest two-day rally since November, after lawmakers announced an agreement on an economic stimulus plan that will give tax rebates to 117 million families. In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index surged 5.2 percent, its biggest gain since March 2003.

Bank of Communications advanced 12 percent to HK$9.89 in Hong Kong. Morgan Stanley raised its rating to ``overweight'''' from ``equal weight.'''' The bank said on Jan. 22 higher income from lending and fee-based services boosted its 2007 profit by more than 60 percent.

HSBC, Europe''s No. 1 bank by market value, added 4.4 percent to HK$120.50 in Hong Kong. Macquarie Group Ltd., Australia''s biggest securities firm, jumped 7.8 percent to A$69.02. Mizuho Financial Group Inc., the third-largest publicly traded bank by market value in Japan, surged 11 percent to 509,000 yen.

Rebound

Stocks are rebounding from losses earlier this week after the Fed held an emergency meeting and cut its benchmark interest rate by the most in 23 years and New York regulators met with U.S. banks to consider bailing out bond insurers.

Posco, Asia''s third-biggest steelmaker, added 4.5 percent to 510,000 won in South Korea. Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., the world''s biggest shipbuilder, rose 4.8 percent to 358,000 won.

South Korea''s fourth-quarter economic growth of 1.5 percent accelerated from the previous quarter''s 1.3 percent, the central bank said in Seoul today. That beat the median estimate of 1.3 percent in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

The report comes after China said yesterday its economy expanded more than 11 percent for the fourth straight quarter, supporting global growth amid a U.S. slowdown.

Excited About Asia

``We''re trying to remind people that the growth story in Asia is still there,'''' said Kathryn Matthews, regional chief investment officer at Fidelity Investments, the world''s largest mutual-fund company. ``All the fund managers here are excited about the prospects for Asia.''''

BHP jumped 5.7 percent to A$36.80, extending a two-day, 12 percent surge. Rio Tinto Group, the world''s third-biggest mining company, gained 9.3 percent to A$118.50, its largest increase since Nov. 9.

The gains helped Australia''s benchmark gain 5 percent, rounding out a three-day, 13 percent rally. That''s the biggest three-day increase in its history, which dates back to 1992.

A gauge of six metals traded on the London Metal Exchange, including copper and nickel, jumped 2 percent yesterday, while crude oil prices surged 2.8 percent. Gold for immediate delivery yesterday rose 2.5 percent to $912.85 an ounce.

``Demand for commodities is going to stay very high, even if the U.S. slides into recession,'''' said Gabriel Gondard, who helps manage $10 billion at Societe Generale SA''s China fund venture. ``China''s economic growth alone is sufficient to keep prices at high levels.''''

Oil Companies

PetroChina, the nation''s largest oil producer, surged 8.6 percent to HK$11.88 in Hong Kong.

Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co., the nation''s largest company by market value, rose 4.9 percent to 2,800 pesos, its steepest gain since Aug. 23. Manila Electric Co., the country''s biggest power distributor, surged 6.8 percent to 79 pesos.

Moody''s cited the improving Philippine economy and a narrowing budget deficit for the outlook upgrade from stable. Moody''s B1 rating on the nation is four levels below investment grade, the same as Cambodia, Pakistan and Uruguay, and one level below Indonesia.

Esprit jumped 14 percent to HK$97.50 in Hong Kong. The Munich-based Ifo research institute said yesterday its business- climate index increased to 103.4 this month. Economists forecast a drop to 102.3, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Wipro, India''s third-largest software services provider, advanced 2.1 percent to 420 rupees. High Tech Computer Corp., the largest maker of handsets using Microsoft''s Windows operating system, jumped 6.8 percent to NT$594. Lenovo Group Ltd., Asia''s biggest personal-computer maker, surged 15 percent to HK$4.75.

Topped Estimates

Microsoft said yesterday that net income climbed 79 percent to 50 cents a share, topping the 46-cent average of estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Chief Executive Officer Steve Ballmer increased the annual sales forecast to as much as $60.5 billion, signaling Microsoft can withstand a slowdown in the U.S. economy.

Centro Properties Group, the Australian owner of 700 U.S. malls, surged 30 percent to 62.5 Australian cents, extending yesterday''s 35 percent gain. New Chief Executive Officer Glenn Rufrano yesterday ruled out a fire sale of assets as he seeks to refinance A$3.9 billion ($3.4 billion) of the company''s debt.

Được noname123 sửa chữa / chuyển vào 17:14 ngày 25/01/2008

có 3 ý:
1. Chính sách hỗ trợ của CP có độ trễ
2. TT Thế giới đã tăng nhưng chưa ổn đinh, nên 1 thời gian nữa tây mới mua ở các thị trường phụ của phụ như Việt nam
3. Còn SABECO, nên nội địa chắc ko còn nhiều tiền nữa
tóm lại chắc sau tết âm lịch mới lên ổn định
giờ chỉ nên giành cho NĐT lướt sóng T1,2
Tôi thì hết xèng từ lâu rồi, đành nhì mà thèm vậy