Chúng ta đang ở đâu trong lược đồ tâm lý này. Mời anh em vào bình luận

Phải chăng là từ 13- 14?

cso vẻ như mai là chính ngôi số 14.

có lẽ anh em tý bang nên chuẩn bị đạn dược. Chiến lược của Chính phủ đi bài nước đôi đầy mâu thuẫn ko phải là ko có ý đúng đâu. Hôm nay các bác ấy họp cũng đã tính đến mọi vấn đề rồi, nhưng đang phân vân nên mới đưa ra chính sách thiếu nhất quán như vậy. Tất cả cũng vì chuyện kinh tế Mỹ và đồng USD suy thoái làm khổ chúng ta thôi. Hôm qua ngồi nhìn cái band Đảng CSVN, chợt nhận ra vấn đề: mục đích chính vẫn là phấn đấu mục tiêu TĂNG TRƯỞNG BỀN VỮNG! Mọi người bắt đầu có thể yên tâm rồi: tăng trưởng (xuất khẩu, hút vốn đầu tư, tăng linh hoạt và thanh khoản cho TT tiền tệ) là mục tiêu số 1, bền vững (chống lạm phát,...) là mục tiêu số 2.

Thú thật chưa dám tự tin giải ngân, nhưng sau khi Bernanke và Paulson đứng ra bảo kê thì ngày mai bắt đầu tham gia vào môn dò đáy

As Goodyear Junk Bonds Slide, Shares Signal Recovery (Update2)

By Fabio Alves and Michael Tsang

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Goodyear Tire & Co.''s stock climbed 14 percent in the past six weeks, while U.S. Steel Corp. gained 7 percent. Both shares rallied as their junk-rated bonds dropped.

During the past decade, a retreat in high-yield debt has foreshadowed every decline of at least 10 percent in the Standard & Poor''s 500 Index. This time bonds may be wrong, and stocks may prove more prescient, signaling corporate profits can withstand $162 billion in banks'' credit writedowns and a slowing economy.

Shares of the 691 U.S. companies with non-investment grade bond ratings have climbed 5.3 percent in the past month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with a 5.2 percent increase in the yield investors demand to own high-yield bonds rather than U.S. Treasury notes, according to an index of 892 issuers compiled by Merrill Lynch & Co.


Today, shares of junk-rated U.S. companies rose 2.2 percent, more than the 1.4 percent gain in the Standard & Poor''s 500 Index, the benchmark of American equity. Goodyear and U.S. Steel shares are rising even after the prospect of the U.S. economy slipping into a recession eroded bond investors'' confidence that the least-creditworthy companies will repay their debts.

The yield premium for junk bonds, which stands at 7.35 percentage points, has tripled since falling to an all-time low of 2.41 percentage points on June 5, according to index data from New York-based Merrill, the world''s largest brokerage.

Junk bonds carry ratings below Baa3 from Moody''s Investors Service and BBB- from Standard & Poor''s.

High Risk, Low Return?

Lincoln Anderson, who oversees $271 billion as chief investment officer at LPL Financial Services in Boston, says the worst start to a year for junk bonds since 1990 isn''t warranted.

High-yield bonds in less than two months this year have lost 2.8 percent, including coupon payments, and trade at an average of 89.18 cents on the dollar, Merrill Lynch data show. During the nine-month long recession in 2001, junk bonds declined 2.4 percent. In 1990, they fell 4.4 percent.

While the market for junk bonds may be showing that a contraction is a foregone conclusion, Wall Street economists say otherwise. The economy may expand 1.8 percent this year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That''s more than the 1.6 percent growth rate in 2001 and compares with a contraction of 0.2 percent in 1990, according to Bloomberg data.

Lumped Together

``It''s indiscriminate selling and not particularly thoughtful analysis of underlying company fundamentals in credit markets,'''' said Anderson. ``Bond investors are just lumping everybody in together, which is a big mistake.''''

Credit-default swaps, or contracts used to hedge against the risk a company will be unable to repay its debts, indicate that 9 percent of junk-rated companies may default in the next 12 months, according to MFS''s Swanson, a former high-yield bond specialist who''s worked at the Boston-based firm for 22 years. That''s almost double the rate that Moody''s expects in 2008.

Wall Street firms reeling from losses on debt holdings are also dumping all but the highest-rated bonds and clamping down on lending to investors that use borrowed money to buy the riskiest bonds. That''s squeezing demand and making it impossible to value some securities, Oppenheimer Capital''s Colin Glinsman said.

``There''s more leverage in the fixed-income area, so the impact of de-leveraging is much greater from a financial market point of view,'''' said Glinsman, who oversees about $25 billion as chief investment officer at Oppenheimer Capital in New York. The stock market is ``more free to make a decision that the momentum of these things getting worse is finally being overruled by the fact that they''ve become so cheap.''''

`Correctly Focused''

The 50-year-old fund manager held shares of junk-rated Lennar Corp., the biggest U.S. homebuilder, at the end of last year. The Miami-based company, which lost 66 percent in 2007 and reported the biggest quarterly loss in its history on Jan. 24, has jumped 7.9 percent in the past month. Today, Lennar climbed 2.7 percent.

Still, the first decline in home prices since the Great Depression and higher financing costs for companies and households may cause defaults to accelerate and stifle economic growth. More than one in five high-yield bonds, including those of Lennar, are now considered distressed, meaning they yield at least 10 percentage points more than benchmark rates, Merrill said last week. That''s about the same ratio as before the recession of 2000.

``The high-yield bond market is correctly focused on the stresses in the financial system,'''' said Margaret Patel, fund manager at Evergreen Investment Management Co. in Boston, which oversees $274 billion. ``I don''t think we''re seeing any indication of more optimism.''''

The stock market tells a different story.

A Good Year

After Goodyear, the largest U.S. tiremaker, this month posted a better-than-forecast fourth-quarter profit of $52 million, shares of the Akron, Ohio-based company jumped the most since Oct. 30, when it last announced results.

Goodyear has beaten analysts'' profit estimates for three straight quarters. At the same time, the spread on its bond yield to Treasuries has risen more than 80 percent in the past year. In the past six weeks, the yield premium on Goodyear''s 9 percent notes due in 2015 has widened by 33 basis points to 488 basis points. They are rated Ba3 at Moody''s, three steps below investment grade. S&P ranks them at B, two rungs lower.

U.S. Steel, the second-largest U.S.-based steelmaker by market value, has gained 5.8 percent since the company reported an 88 percent drop in fourth-quarter profit.

Consensus estimates indicate the Pittsburgh-based company''s earnings per share will rise 49 percent in 2008, after falling 34 percent last year. Still, the yield premium on its $450 million 6.05 percent notes due in 2017 widened 125 basis points to 353 basis points since the first week of January, trading at 92.52 cents to the dollar. The debt is rated BB+ at S&P.

Today, shares of Goodyear advanced 2.9 percent, while those of U.S. steel climbed 4.2 percent.

``The stock market is correctly smelling out most of these cases, that these companies aren''t going to default,'''' said Swanson, 58. ``It''s just the bond market working where so many people need to sell at once that it''s driving the prices crazy low. It''s irrational from a fundamental point of view.''''

Các bác nghĩ là khoảng 13-14, tôi thì suy nghĩ như thế này, khoảng 12-14 là khoảng tượng trưng hay tóm lược, do đó không phải chỉ có 1 vài lần dò đáy mà có thể sẽ dập dềnh theo một số lần tìm xu thế. Về mặt vậy chất thì chưa đủ tin cậy để xác định xu hướng trong điều kiện kinh tế nước nhà có sự phát triển lệch. Bên cạnh đó thị trường trong nước hiệu nhiều ảnh hưởng từ nước ngoài - gián tiếp hoặc trực tiếp mà chính sách thì chưa thực sự rõ ràng để xác định niềm tin cho thị trường. Tôi vẫn chưa thấy đủ cơ sở để xác lập niềm tin.

``The stock market is acting more rationally,'''' said James Swanson, who helps oversee $200 billion as chief investment strategist at MFS Investment Management. ``It seems to be saying, `As bad as things are, we''re not in a recession.''''''

MAI MÀ THỊ TRƯỜNG KHÔNG XANH LÀ ĐỨT PHIM

có 2 tin tích cực quan trọng cho buổi chiều u ám này:
1. Các tổ chức cho repo cổ phiếu đã dừng khuyến nghị bán thu tiền về. Thống kê cho thấy tỉ lệ dư nợ cho vay chứng khoán đã sụt mạnh xuống dưới 2%. Như vậy là 1% của dư nợ đã được thu về đủ trang trải cho vấn đề tăng dự trữ bắt buộc.
2. Lãi suất liên ngân hàng sụt giảm mạnh trong ngày hôm nay, hiện chỉ còn trong biên độ 13-14%. Đó là lý do NN bán bớt trái phiếu

OK, nick bang chủ em add từ cả năm nay rồi