Cuối tuần rảnh rỗi mổ xẻ bác cáo của Credit Suisse "Great expectations trimmed" 9 sep. 2008

Cuối tuần rảnh rỗi mổ xẻ bác cáo của Credit Suisse "Great expectations trimmed" 9 sep. 2008

9 September 2008
Asia Pacific/Vietnam
Equity Research
Investment Strategy (Strategy)



Vietnam Market Strategy
STRATEGY
Great expectations trimmed
-
Vietnam is decisively pulling back from the brink of crisis. We feel
confident that Vietnam can continue to stabilise prices and external
accounts, and believe that banking system asset quality problems are
manageable. A key risk appetite indicator points to a continued shortterm
bounce for the market.
-
We fear that investors, however, exaggerate Vietnam?Ts long-term
growth potential. We expect that, on a five to ten-year view, Vietnam?Ts
economic growth rates will average 6-7%, rather than 8-10%.
-
We also fear that Vietnam could remain East Asiâ?Ts highest-inflation
economy on a structural basis, with troublesome consequences for
competitiveness.
-
Investors should be aware of the challenges involved in trading
Vietnamese equities. The difficulty of opening trading accounts,
obstructive foreign ownership restrictions, de facto capital controls
and illiquidity could make direct investment for most investors
technically unfeasible for the foreseeable future. Access products are
readily available but illiquid.
-
Vietnam?Ts stock index is 55% off its March 2007 peak, but we believe
that the valuation premium over other markets deserves to contract
further.


Ngắn hạn thì nhiều rủi ro do lạm phát vẫn cao hàng dâud châu Á, bên cạnh 'ó PE của 10 cty có v'n hoá l>n nhất thi giá của các nỈ>c khác trong khu vực ....( VD :ttck thailand còn 600 pts).

Và nhỈ vậy VNi 450 là hợp lý ( khi 'ó PE của 10 cty l>n nhất khống 7 )