Đầu tư vào HVG - DN Thủy sản VN có khát vọng tạo ra Doanh thu 1 tỷ USD 2015

Triển vọng ngành tốt & KQKD năm 2015 dự báo khả quan. EPS pha lõang > 4K

HVG (+29.52%): Expectation about export to Russian market  At present, only HVG and three other companies in Vietnam are permitted to sell pangasius to Russia. The country does not allow import from other companies due to hygienic standards.  Due to disputes between Russian and Western countries regarding the conflict in Ukraine, Russia has banned food imports from the US, EU, Norway, Australia and Canada. According to Reuters, in 2013, the countries under sanction exported USD 1.4 bn of fish products to Russia. As a result, Russia has to find a substitute supply of fish products. With export price of approximately USD 2.5/kg, pangasius is among the cheapest variety of fishes and will be preferred by Russian consumers. Source: VASEP Key highlights on the sector According to Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), Vietnam’s fishery export is estimated to reach USD 7.85 bn in 2014, a 16.7% YoY increase. Two major products are shrimp and pangasius.

Shrimp export attained high growth, however, the pangasius industry has not recovered Vietnam shrimp export attained high growth in 2014 because of global supply shortage, prompted by the shrimp early mortality syndrome (EMS) in Thailand, the largest shrimp exporting country. Vietnam shrimp export was estimated to reach USD 3.95 bn in 2014, a 29.2% YoY increase, prompted by an approximately 17.6% YoY increase in volume and 9.8% YoY increase in average export price. Contrary to shrimp export, pangasius export did not improve in 2014 due to fierce competition and low export price. Export was estimated to reach USD 1.75 bn in 2014, a 0.6% YoY increase, prompted by 1.1% increase in average export price and 0.5% decline in volume. High anti-dumping duty in the US imposed on both pangasius and shrimp Regarding pangasius export, as we mentioned above, most companies, except VHC and three other minor exporters, have to pay anti-dumping duty of USD 0.58-2.39/kg (preliminary results, POR10), and USD 0.42-2.11/kg (POR9) when selling pangasius fillets to the US. For anti-dumping duty on shrimp in POR8 (from 1 Feb 2012 to 31 Jan 2013), MPC, the largest shrimp exporter in Vietnam is subject to a duty of 4.98%, which is the lowest rate. Sao Ta Foods JSC (FMC: HOSE) and most other shrimp exporters are subject to a duty of 6.37%. There was no duty on POR7. Decree 36/2014/ND-CP regarding pangasius farming, processing and exporting

Decree 36/2014/ND-CP was promulgated by the Government on 29 Apr 2014 and took effect from 20 June 2014. Three months after that, on 29 July 2014, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) issued Circular No. 23/2014/TT-BNNPTNT, which provided guidelines for Decree No. 36/2014/ND-CP. The Circular took effect from 12 Sep 2014. Decree 36 and Circular 23 require more stringent quality control, registration of farming area and export. In general, we expect that the regulation over pangasius export quality (water content ≤ 83%, glazing ratio ≤ 10%, restrictions on usage of chemicals and additives) will create positive impacts on the industry. Vietnamese exporters can improve the product quality and sell at higher prices. Nevertheless, several pangasius exporters argue that some regulations are unreasonable. For example, customers usually order pangasius fillets with higher water content and glazing ratio than stipulated in the Decree. In addition, export registration with Vietnam

2015 Expectation Possible changes in fundamentals Pangasius farming cost will decline Soybean meal is the main material for producing pangasius feed. It accounts for 50% of feed production cost and 30% of pangasius fillet cost. Soybean meal price has declined by 17% since the beginning of 2014. Average price of soybean meal in 2H14 was 16% lower than in 1H14. A decline in soybean meal price will lower pangasius farming cost. Assuming soybean meal price declines by 15%, we estimate that cost of pangasius fillet will decline by 5%. It takes 8-9 months for a pangasius harvest, so we expect to see a positive impact of soybean meal price decline on business results of pangasius companies from 2Q15. VAT exemption on feeds According to the Amended Tax Law No. 71/2014/QH13, effective from 1 Jan 2015, the VAT imposed on feed will be reduced from 5% to zero. VAT exemption will not directly impact profit of fishery exporters as exports are entitled to VAT refund. Nevertheless, VAT exemption will reduce cost of pangasius and shrimps raised by farmers. Consequently, fishery companies can choose between purchasing fish/shrimp from farmers or raising fish/shrimp on its own farms, whichever is cheaper. Decree 36/2014/ND-CP may alleviate competition within the pangasius industry Pangasius export price has declined since early 2012 due to competition among pangasius exporters. As we have mentioned above, Decree 36 and Circular 23, which took effect from June and Sep 2014, require more stringent quality control and registration of farming area and export. The supervision of quality, farming area, number of processing plants can improve product quality and prevent supply surplus and unhealthy competition. As a result, we expect that the number of pangasius exporters will be reduced and export price can increase

The largest Vietnamese pangasius exporter, one of the few fully integrated fisheries company covering the entire value chain from hatchery, farming, manufacturing of fish feed, processing, production of frozen fish and cold storage warehousing.  With vertically integrated production, HVG will benefit the most from soybean meal price decline.  The company is expanding to shrimp business by increasing stake in Sao Ta Foods Processing from 39.3% to over 51% and cooperating with Faquimex in raising shrimp in Ben Tre province. In 2014, HVG earned VND 30 bn in profit from cooperated business with Faquimex.  Net income attributable to shareholders will increase: By the end of 2013, HVG held a 55.6% and 51.4% in Viet Thang Feeds (VTF: HOSE), Agifish (AGF: HOSE). At present, stake in VTF and AGF has been increased to 80.74% and 74.9%.  We expect 2015 revenue to reach VND 18,375 bn, a 28.7% YoY increase, and net income attributable to shareholders to reach VND 535 bn, a 12.1% YoY increase, translating to an EPS of VND 4,052. HVG is trading at 6.7x 2015 EPS, which is rather attractive.

http://www.vinanet.com.vn/tin-thi-truong-hang-hoa-viet-nam.gplist.289.gpopen.243216.gpside.1.gpnewtitle.gia-thuy-san-xuat-khau-tuan-15-–-20-1-2015.asmx

--- Gộp bài viết, 02/03/2015, Bài cũ: 02/03/2015 ---

Update: export price is increaser:

e thấy bác tài ghê ak. Chim lợi cho nhỏ lẻ yếu vía thoát hết hàng. Giờ chuyển sang bìm bịp

chẳng hiểu gì cả, dịch ra tiếng việt để em nghiên cứu, thấy đúng thì mới múc

Đồng ruble đã tăng 11,5% so với đồng bạc xanh trong tháng 2, lên mức 1 USD đổi được 61,7 ruble. Đây là mức tăng theo tháng mạnh nhất trong hơn 20 năm qua, tờ nhật báo Vedomosti (Nga) đưa tin. Cũng trong khoảng thời gian này, đồng ruble tăng giá 13,2% so với euro. Đà phục hồi diễn ra sau khi đồng ruble đã mất đến 40% giá trị so với đồng USD hồi năm ngoái, đỉnh điểm là tháng 12. Mức độ ổn định hóa đồng nội tệ Nga đã xóa tan những đồn đoán cho rằng kinh tế nước này đang trên đà sụp đổ.
--> Còn ai lo việc HVG đầu tư bên Nga nữa không ?

Còn em
Lo đầu tư giai đoạn vừa qua USD quy đổi Rup ngon quá nên Q1 lãi to quá anh em lại phải đua giá
Em fun tý!!!

FCN giá 22 cũng là lựa chọn tốt: Mục tiêu 26 -28 trước DHCD TN!!!

http://f319.com/threads/jvc-cvt-fcn-chon-co-phieu-nao-voi-t45.579161/page-9

Bạn chỉ cần quan tâm tới nội dung này : We expect 2015 revenue to reach VND 18,375 bn, a 28.7% YoY increase, and net income attributable to shareholders to reach VND 535 bn, a 12.1% YoY increase, translating to an EPS of VND 4,052. HVG is trading at 6.7x 2015 EPS, which is rather attractive.

Đây là lý do NN mua ròng từ khi SSI ra báo cáo cho tổ chức NN ngày 13.02.2015

cạn sạch hàng

Tên này chuyển từ vai trò chim lợn HVG sang bìm bịp rồi à

mai lsmf vòng mới được chưa? 22.5 nhé

--- Gộp bài viết, 02/03/2015, Bài cũ: 02/03/2015 ---

cứ ở chim lợn lại bốc hơn

--- Gộp bài viết, 02/03/2015 ---

CK ngoaì yếu tố kinh nghiệm , trình độ còn cả may rủi . mà tay đó đen lắm , mong sao hắn chuyển sang mã khác