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U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Rose to 73.3 in May


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By Shobhana Chandra




May 14 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. consumers increased in May, a sign the biggest part of the economy is helping strengthen the expansion.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment rose to 73.3 from 72.2 in April. The gauge was projected to rise to 73.5, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.
Employers last month added the most workers in four years, indicating an improving job market may keep bolstering spending that accounts for 70 percent of the economy. Another report today showed retail sales rose in April for the seventh consecutive month, helped by companies such as Macy’s Inc., as the recovery broadened.
“The labor market is becoming an increasing point of optimism for the consumer,” Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia, said before the report. “A decrease in unemployment will be beneficial to growth, though the process will be slow.”
Estimates for the Reuters/University of Michigan measure ranged from 70 to 80, according to the Bloomberg survey of 72 economists.
The gauge of current conditions, which reflects Americans’ perceptions of their financial situation and whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items like cars, rose to 81.1 in May from 81 the prior month.
The index of consumer expectations for six months from now, which more closely projects the direction of consumer spending, increased to 68.3, the highest in three months, from 66.5.
Consumers in the survey said they expect an inflation rate of 3.1 percent over the next 12 months, compared with 2.9 percent in the previous report.
Over the next five years, the figures tracked by Federal Reserve policy makers, Americans expected a 2.9 percent rate of inflation, up from 2.7 percent in the previous month.
Retail Sales
Retail sales climbed in April for a seventh straight month, the Commerce Department said today. The 0.4 percent gain followed a 2.1 percent jump in March and was led by automobile dealers and building-material stores.
Macy’s, the second-biggest U.S. department-store chain, reported a profit in the quarter ended May 1 after sales accelerated. The Cincinnati-based retailer maintained its earnings forecast for the year, citing economic uncertainty.
“We just don’t want to get ahead of ourselves,” Chief Financial Officer Karen Hoguet said on a conference call with analysts and investors on May 12. “While the economy is getting stronger, it is unclear how strong it really is. We do expect to have more visibility in the back half of the year.”
Employment Gains
Payrolls jumped 290,000 in April after a 230,000 gain the prior month, Labor Department figures showed on May 7. The jobless rate rose to 9.9 percent, the highest level this year.
Unemployment will end the year at 9.4 percent, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey taken from April 29 to May 10. Economists surveyed raised their forecasts for consumer spending and economic growth as the U.S. becomes less dependent on government stimulus.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index last week had its biggest weekly retreat since the start of the bull market in March 2009 on concern that the debt crisis in Europe may intensify. Markets have recovered on optimism the turmoil will ease after European leaders announced an almost $1 trillion financial aid package.
To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: May 14, 2010 10:06 EDT

chủ top bị tẩu hoả nhập ma rồi

Industrial Production in U.S. Rose 0.8% in April (Update2)


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By Courtney Schlisserman




May 14 (Bloomberg) -- Industrial production in the U.S. rose in April by the most in three months, indicating factories keep powering an economic recovery that’s becoming broad-based.
Output at factories, mines and utilities increased 0.8 percent last month after a 0.2 percent gain, figures from the Federal Reserve showed today. Production at manufacturers rose 1 percent for a second month.
Spending by companies and consumers is spurring production at the same time factories are scrambling to replenish inventories. The combination of manufacturing growth and a pickup in Americans’ purchases is helping sustain the economy’s expansion.
“The manufacturing sector continues to sort of lead the way in the recovery,” said Julia Coronado, a senior economist at BNP Paribas in New York. Factories are “benefitting from the upswing in the inventory cycle, recovering global trade and the upswing in consumer spending,” she said.
Retail sales climbed in April for a seventh straight month, the Commerce Department said today. The 0.4 percent gain followed a 2.1 percent jump in March and was led by automobile dealers and building-material stores.
Consumer confidence increased in May, a sign the biggest part of the economy is helping strengthen the expansion. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment rose to 73.3 from 72.2 in April. The gauge was projected to rise to 73.5, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.
Stocks Decline
Stocks dropped as concern about the impact of Europe’s debt crisis overshadowed signs of improvement in the world’s largest economy. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 1.6 percent to 1,138.99 at 11 a.m. in New York.
Economists forecast industrial production would increase 0.7 percent in April, according to the median of 81 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from gains of 0.4 percent to 1.1 percent. The April increase was the biggest since a 1.2 percent jump in January.
The Fed’s report showed capacity utilization, which measures the amount of a plant that is in use, rose to 73.7 percent last month, the highest since November 2008, from 73.1 percent in March. The gauge averaged 80 over the past 20 years and suggests inflation remains low.
Utility output decreased 1.3 percent in April, while mining production, which includes oil drilling, rose 1.4 percent.
Business Equipment
Production of business equipment increased 1 percent after a 1.1 percent gain in March. Output of computers, electrical equipment and appliances increased last month.
Consumer goods production rose 0.2 percent in April. Motor vehicle and parts production declined 2.2 percent last month after a 1.9 percent rise.
Manufacturers, which make up about 12 percent of the economy, are benefiting from gains in business spending and expanding global economies. The U.S. grew at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the first quarter, helped by the biggest increase in consumer spending in three years and a 13 percent rise in business investment in new equipment.
Cisco Systems Inc., the world’s biggest provider of networking equipment, this week forecast a 25 percent to 28 percent increase in fourth-quarter revenue. Sales in the fiscal third quarter, which ended May 1, rose 27 percent.
The economic recovery is “accelerating,” Chief Executive Officer John Chambers said on a May 12 conference call. “I’d say now almost without exception, most people are beginning to slowly turn cautiously optimistic.”
Construction Gear
Caterpillar Inc., the world’s biggest construction equipment maker, expects sales to increase this year as exports rebound, Chief Executive Officer Jim Owens said May 5. The company said last month it has added about 1,500 jobs since year-end because of higher production volume, including 600 in the U.S.
“We’re seeing a very sharp recovery in 2010,” Owens said in an interview in Washington. “Exports by the end of the year will be close to record levels.”
U.S. exports have risen 10 of the last 11 months, helped by surging growth in emerging Asian and Latin American countries.
This year is “looking more promising and we have sequential improvement quarter over quarter, month over month,” Tim Mahoney, chief executive officer of Honeywell International Inc.’s aerospace business, said at an investor conference May 12.
To contact the reporter on this story: Courtney Schlisserman in Washington cschlisserma@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: May 14, 2010 11:06 EDT

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