Dow Average May Be Poised to Fall to 7,000: Chart of the Day

thienthanthom · 11/10/2008, 08:29

Dow Average May Be Poised to Fall to 7,000: Chart of the Day

By David Wilson

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Dow Jones Industrial Average would have to fall about 18 percent more to reach its ``trend line'''' since August 1982, when the 1980s bull market started, according to Peter Boockvar, an equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York.

As the CHART OF THE DAY shows, the average is closer to the reading indicated by the trend line than it was in October 2002, when the last bear market hit bottom.

Yesterday''s close of 8,579.19 was about 23 percent higher than the level indicated by its past performance -- about 7,000, Boockvar wrote in an e-mail today. The Dow average''s earlier low was about 35 percent above the trend line.

The Nasdaq Composite Index fell to its post-August 1982 line ``almost to the penny'''' after the 1990s Internet bubble burst, he wrote. The index plummeted 78 percent between March 2000 and October 2002, when it reached a six-year low.

Since Sept. 29, the Dow industrials have fallen 23 percent. The retreat started with a 777.68-point plunge, the biggest one- day drop in history.

The Standard & Poor''s 500 Index would have to lose only about 6.5 percent more to hit its trend line, according to Boockvar. The reading suggested by the index''s swings in the last 26 years is 850. Yesterday''s close was 909.92.

Stocks may hit bottom before the benchmarks drop to these levels, Boockvar wrote. ``We certainly don''t need to get there in order to create a bottom,'''' the e-mail said.

To contact the reporter on this story: David Wilson in New York at dwilson@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: October 10, 2008 09:24 EDT

Thuyf Linh day
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=amX076XhpyXk&refer=home

tranhung911 · 11/10/2008, 08:34

Tin thế nào được;
Lúc VNI 1000, nó bảo không thể xuống dưới 700, lúc 700 nó bảo không xuống dưới 500, lúc 500 nó bảo là đáy rồi, nó tụt cho phát xuống 366. Lần này nó bảo VNI không xưống dưới 420, nó tụt cho phát về 379. Mấy bữa nữa nó về 200 cũng là thường. Vấn đề mua cổ phiếu là mua của tương lai, mà tương lai thì quá ư là mờ mịt. Khuyến cáo, giảm tỷ trọng cổ phiếu xuống mức thấp nhất trong những ngày có bull hoặc hồi phục đôi chút, cơ hội thóat ra đấy.

thienthanthom · 11/10/2008, 09:18

http://www10.ttvnol.com/uploaded2/thienthanthom/my.jpg

hic hic....đợi lâu quá....

THống kê qua cái:

Khủng hoảng 1929: TT mất 90% trong vòng 36 tháng tìm được đáy
Tương tự:
1987: 36% và 2 tháng ^_^ nhẹ nhàng
2000-2001: 30% và 20 tháng

Source: Barclay Capitals

Lần này quy mô lớn hơn nhìu, khả năng xuống 7000 tức là mất 50% trong vòng 12 tháng.

Hy vọng là đáy.
Ko post ảnh lên được,...chán quá

thienthanthom · 11/10/2008, 09:22

G7 update:

Berlusconi Says Markets May Be Shut; G-7 Seeks United Remedy

By Simon Kennedy and Steve Scherer

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said governments may shut financial markets as the credit freeze pummels stocks and threatens a global recession.

Lại có chú sắp đóng cửa Thị trường roài...hờ hờ...

thienthanthom · 11/10/2008, 09:24

U.S. Has No Plan to Close Its Financial Markets (Update1)

By Holly Rosenkrantz

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. has no plans to close its financial markets, White House spokesman Tony Fratto said.

Mẽo thì không thế....^_^

thienthanthom · 11/10/2008, 09:26

G-7 May Not Adopt Loan Guarantee Proposal Today, Official Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a9SScNHMF2io

Thằng banks nào ngu thằng đáy phải chiu....no guarantee he he

indonesia · 11/10/2008, 09:42

thienthanthom;1 đã viết:

Dow Average May Be Poised to Fall to 7,000: Chart of the Day

By David Wilson

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Dow Jones Industrial Average would have to fall about 18 percent more to reach its ``trend line'''''''' since August 1982, when the 1980s bull market started, according to Peter Boockvar, an equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York.

As the CHART OF THE DAY shows, the average is closer to the reading indicated by the trend line than it was in October 2002, when the last bear market hit bottom.

Yesterday''''s close of 8,579.19 was about 23 percent higher than the level indicated by its past performance -- about 7,000, Boockvar wrote in an e-mail today. The Dow average''''s earlier low was about 35 percent above the trend line.

The Nasdaq Composite Index fell to its post-August 1982 line ``almost to the penny'''''''' after the 1990s Internet bubble burst, he wrote. The index plummeted 78 percent between March 2000 and October 2002, when it reached a six-year low.

Since Sept. 29, the Dow industrials have fallen 23 percent. The retreat started with a 777.68-point plunge, the biggest one- day drop in history.

The Standard & Poor''''s 500 Index would have to lose only about 6.5 percent more to hit its trend line, according to Boockvar. The reading suggested by the index''''s swings in the last 26 years is 850. Yesterday''''s close was 909.92.

Stocks may hit bottom before the benchmarks drop to these levels, Boockvar wrote. ``We certainly don''''t need to get there in order to create a bottom,'''''''' the e-mail said.

To contact the reporter on this story: David Wilson in New York at dwilson@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: October 10, 2008 09:24 EDT

Thuyf Linh day
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=amX076XhpyXk&refer=home
Xem tất cả

DJ công nghiệp về 7000 là chuyện thường. Vì thực tế CP Mỹ hiện nay chưa có một biện pháp thực sự tích cực và hiệu quả nào để cứu vãn TTTC. Lô 700 tỷ $ kia vẫn chỉ trên bàn giấy mà thoai...

VNI thì cứ đầu 2xx mà nhảy vào đầu tư lâu dài, kiểu gì cũng thắng....

Dow Average May Be Poised to Fall to 7,000: Chart of the Day

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