Ghét cái thằng JPMorgan. Hôm nọ vừa khen Chính phủ, hôm nay lại chê rồi

đúng đúng, có khi về 16200 ấy chứ chẳng chơi. Cứ cổ cánh mà múc thôi

Đúng là bọn JP Morgan hôm nay vừa ra 1 cái report phê phán VN như bác MartinStock nói:

Vietnam effectively devalues dong 2 pct, analysts

Reuters, Wednesday June 11 2008

HANOI, June 11 (Reuters) - Vietnam''s official dong rate fell 2 percent against the dollar on Wednesday to a record low in what analysts described as an effective devaluation of the currency as the economy struggles with double-digit inflation.
The black market and offshore forwards market both value the dong significantly lower than its official rate, reflecting the view that Vietnam''s authorities have moved too slowly to combat inflation currently running at more than 25 percent.
The State Bank of Vietnam set the official rate on Wednesday at 16,461, down 1.96 percent from 16,139 on Tuesday. Normally the official rate is moved daily in fractions of a percent.
Just last week the government said it had no plans to devalue the currency.
But analysts said a cut in the official dong rate on Wednesday was an effective devaluation but that it wouldn''t prevent continued pressure on the currency given signs that the balance of payments is deteriorating.
"We believe this will likely mark the beginning of more managed Vietnamese dong devaluations against the U.S. dollar," economists at Goldman Sachs said in a research note.
JPMorgan economist Matthew Hildebrandt in Singapore said the cut in the dong rate would send a negative signal.
"It will embolden the view that Vietnam is on the verge of a BoP (balance of payments) crisis and larger devaluation," Hildebrandt said in a client note.To prevent more pressure on the currency, the central bank would have to be willing to defend the dong by selling some of its foreign exchange reserves.
"This is necessary to fully re-assert the credibility of the FX regime and to stabilise the market," HSBC said.
ECONOMIC PRESSURES
The spot dong rate was quoted on the interbank market at 16,624/16,626 dong to a dollar, pushing to the lower limit of the daily trading band that allows the currency to trade 1 percent either side of the official rate.
Since hitting a 2008 high of 15,815 per dollar in the interbank market on March 25, the dong has dropped 4.9 percent. Three percent of that fall has come in the last day.
But unofficial markets suggest the dong should be a lot lower. Black market trading in the dong offered around 18,000 dong for one dollar late on Tuesday, JPMorgan said, more than 8 percent below Wednesday''s official rate.
Non deliverable forwards, which trade offshore, see the currency falling nearly 30 percent in the next year.
Macroeconomic stability has been taken for granted in Vietnam, which has grown on average by 7.5 percent a year since 2000, so seven consecutive months of double digit inflation has raised alarm.
The Communist Party government has warned speculators they would be "severely punished" as people have been found hoarding rice and petrol, gold shops sold dollars illegally and factory workers went on strike for higher wages.
Investment disbursement is lagging the sharp rise in the trade and current account deficits, analysts say, putting the country''s balance of payments under pressure.
Although the central bank has raised interest rates several times this year to fight inflation -- the latest hikes taking effect on Wednesday -- they remain below the rate of inflation, offering negative returns for depositors.
Fitch Ratings, which lowered its ratings outlook on Vietnam to negative from stable in May, said policy responses have been too slow and too small to deal with the economic pressures.
Reflecting waning investor confidence, the stock market has slumped 60 percent this year, the worst performing market in the world.
(Reporting by Grant McCool and Nguyen Nhat Lam; editing by Neil Fullick)

Tăng lãi suất thì mới hút tiền về, rồi lại cho vay với ls cao -> các đơn vị sx phải sử dung vốn sao cho hiệu quả -> lạm phát CÓ THỂ giảm. Tăng mạnh lãi suất, hút nhanh tiền về, rồi lại giảm lãi suất, đánh nhanh diệt gọn.

Không phải là xấu.

Quả bom tấn dầu, than, điện chưa nổ thì làm sao gọi là lạm phát lên tới đỉnh rồi nhỉ

Tới đỉnh thứ nhất còn đỉnh hai, ba , bốn nữa

Vietnam: mixed policy signals hurting confidence
We have argued over the last several weeks that a large devaluation of the dong is not imminent. Macroeconomic data has deteriorated sharply over the last nine months, but it is expected to stabilize and show modest improvement by the fourth quarter. Confidence is the main near term issue, and on this front, policy-makers need to take appropriate measures to shore it up until trade and inflation figures look better. We spoke to PM Dung on Thursday. The meeting was generally reassuring, and we were told that measures to restore confidence and address macroeconomic concerns would be taken.

Over the last several days we have seen action on several fronts. On Friday, the authorities publicly recognized the existence of a black market rate (previously they seemed to pretend that it did not exist) and began to enforce against speculation. This had brought the black market rate down from 18,300 last week to around 17,500 earlier today. The black market rate was still well above the official rate of 16,139 (old) but government efforts seemed to be narrowing the gap (this progress was negated however this afternoon, see below).

In addition, the authorities have increased communication with the market over the last week. The most important announcement has been the release of reserve levels (currently at US$ 22 billion) and a statement that the BoP position was in surplus of US$ 1 billion through the first five months of the year. In addition, the authorities have restated that inflation is their priority, that they have reduced their GDP growth target for 2008 and 2009 to help slow it, and that they are taking measures to slow public investment. Action on this latter point will be more reassuring than rhetoric, and confirmation that Vietnam has access to some type of bilateral swap agreement, whether they believe they need it or not, would provide a boost to confidence. Nonetheless, more effective official communication to reduce market uncertainty is undoubtedly a step in the right direction.

The message from today is mixed. The authorities raised domestic interest rates (by 2% points) as has been recommended. The interest rate hike should, all else being equal, entice more residents to hold dong-denominated deposits, as well as slow credit and GDP growth, import demand, and inflation. With the benchmark prime rate now at 14%, lending rates should be able to rise as high 21%, assuming the 150% band still remains. This development is positive, and further rate hikes would be beneficial.

The interest rate hike would have been more encouraging had they not shifted the band 2% weaker at the same time. The small devaluation sends a negative signal, and it has hurt local sentiment and accelerated shifting to US$ assets. Since the devaluation announcement this afternoon, the black market rate has retraced back to 18,000. This move has clearly negated some of the positive sentiment generated from other moves over the last week, and it will embolden the view that Vietnam is on the verge of a BoP crisis and larger devaluation. Indications last week were that a small, one-time move was being considered. Our view is that such a move does not have any material affect on the macroeconomy more broadly, and the only affect it can have is to send mixed signals about the government''s commitment to maintaining the peg. The mid point reference rate now stands at 16,461 from 16,139 previously.

Matt Hildebrandt
Asia Economic and Credit Research
Tel: +65 6882-2253
Fax: +65 6223-1602

Mấy thằng tây nó khích tướng CP thôi, có gì mới đâu.

Mọi chuyện sẽ sớm đi vào quĩ đạo thôi, 16850 là tỷ giá hợp lý của tháng 6/08.

Khẩn trương lên mấy bác SBV ...

http://viet-studies.info/kinhte/20080610_Vietnam_Policy_Moves.pdf [/url]

"We also change our USD/VND forecasts to 16870, 17280, and 18100 on 3, 6 and 12-month horizons respectively...implying 10% depreciation in 12 month''''s time." (Helen, GS.com)