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Iron Ore Provides Some Clues As Combined Trade Data Masks China Weakness

Official Chinese figures at the weekend showed that imports held up – sort of in January and February, but because of the government’s decision to combine both months (which they have done before in past years), it is hard to work out the real performance.

Imports dipped 4% overall, the Chinese Customs Administration said on Saturday – a good performance against the 17% slump in exports for both months.

Iron ore imports give a hint – they managed to rise 1.5% for the two months to 176.8 million tonnes compared to the 174.3 million tonne total for the same two months of 2019 (which were reported separately).

In 2019, Chinese iron ore imports topped 93 million tonnes in January and 81 million in February. Imports in December totalled more than 101 million tonnes which was one of the highest monthly totals on record.

Some of that was drag forward tonnage because of the late January start to the Lunar New year.

But analysis of ship movements into Chinese iron ore receiving ports, showed a sharp fall in February that could not be accounted for by the impact of the late Lunar New Year in January.

Analysts say the 1.5% rise would have been accounted for by the level of imports in January.

The fall in Brazilian exports in January and February and the impact of Cyclone Damien on Rio Tinto’s mine in the Pilbara saw around 10 million tonnes of ore off the market in both months, which helped account for the firmness of prices.

Reuters said that iron ore inventories at ports in China hit a three-month high of 131.1 million tonnes on February 7 but have fallen back again with the resumption of transport links.

Exports from Brazil continue to be weaker than expected and with the estimated 6 million tonne shortfall from Rio this year, it’s no wonder iron ore prices rebounded last week by 8% to $US90.19 a tonne for 62% Fe fines delivered to northern China.

That was after a 9% slide the week before on fears about the coronavirus’s impact on demand.

And there were two other signs of the damage the virus has done to Chinese business activity.

Saturday’s customs data also showed China exported 7.8 million tonnes of steel products in the first two months, down 27% from the first two months of 2019. That’s much larger than the overall 17% slide in exports.

And Reuters pointed out that exports of unwrought aluminium – including primary metal, alloy and semi-finished products – slumped 25.3% year-on-year to 669,208 tonnes in the first two months of this year.

In both cases all that would have happened in February, with only a small amount being associated with the early timing of the New Year break in late January.

Nhưng mà, em thấy kinh tế Việt Nam buồn nhở. Các doanh nghiệp gặp khó khăn vì corona thì đúng rồi, không ai bàn nữa, nhưng mà, sao lãi suất ở Việt Nam mình toàn cao ngất ngưởng, huy động 5-9%, cho vay 10-15% thì doanh nghiệp nào chịu nổi.

Có cảm giác như hiệu ứng của thị trường năm 2008 trở về thật.

Bác đan dẫn 2-0 roài, 2 tháng nữa em sẽ gỡ 2-2 nhé

tôi sẽ bỏ thép qua bột giặt bác ah. hehe

Vậy bao nhiêu tháng trời bác nghiên cứu HPG, nghiên cứu ròng tiền thuần từ hoạt động kinh doanh, nghiên cứu lợi thế cạnh tranh, nghiên cứu chiến lược, phân tích báo cáo tài chính…..v.v đổ xuống sông hết à? Ngã ở đầu thì phải đứng dậy ở đó chứ!

không có gì là vô ích cả bác.

Bác chơi con nào của bột giặt đấy?

em đang nhắm lix nhưng chưa mua đâu bác xem quý 1 ra sao đã. Giá dầu giảm==> giá Las ( 85% nguyên liệu) giảm ==> biên lợi nhuận cải thiện. roa 18%, roe 28%, dòng tiền tốt, định giá 63000, chia cổ tức tiền mặt hàng năm.

Vẫn duy trì quan điểm từ trước là HPG sẽ về đến 18 trong năm nay kể cả có dịch hay không có dịch!