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China vacuums up global iron ore amid disquiet over price rally

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

* GRAPHIC - China's iron ore imports: tmsnrt.rs/2DusZtt

By Clyde Russell

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Aug 10 (Reuters) - It’s probably taken longer than expected, but finally there are signs of concern in China about the sustained rally in iron ore prices.

The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) last week fired a warning shot across the bows of investors in the main domestic exchange for iron ore, reminding clients to trade rationally amid market uncertainties.

The exchange also said in a statement that it would strengthen daily supervision and crack down on irregularities to maintain market order.

While such warnings have happened in the past, the DCE’s announcement was the first of its kind since China lifted its lockdowns aimed at halting the spread of the novel coronavirus and boosted efforts to restart its economy.

The DCE’s words did have some immediate impact, with the front-month iron ore contract slipping to 899.5 yuan ($127.62) a tonne at Friday’s close, down a modest 0.7% from a day earlier.

However, the contract still had its biggest weekly gain since May, and is up 74.5% since the closing low this year of 515.5 yuan a tonne on Feb. 4, hit at the time when Beijing was locking down much of the world’s second-largest economy.

Benchmark spot 62% iron ore for delivery to north China MT-IO-QIN62=ARG, as assessed by commodity price reporting agency Argus, also retreated a touch, ending at $119.35 a tonne on Aug. 7, down from $121.10 the previous day, its highest price in a year.


The question for the iron ore market is whether China can successfully jawbone prices lower, or whether the rally can continue as long as the fundamentals appear supportive.

It’s more likely that while Beijing will be displeased by having to pay so much for imported iron ore, it will deem keeping the economy’s V-shaped recovery on track a higher priority.

The next question is then whether the iron ore rally can be justified by supply and demand dynamics, or whether it’s looking stretched.

On the supply side, it does appear that China has been able to source ample volumes, notwithstanding concerns about the spread of the coronavirus in Brazil, the second-largest exporter behind Australia.

China’s imports were a record high 112.65 million tonnes in July, up 24% from a year earlier and taking the total for the first seven months to 659.9 million tonnes, up 11.8% from the corresponding period in 2019, according to official data.

Looking at the breakdown by supplier, Refinitiv vessel-tracking data showed that imports from Australia were 67.05 million tonnes in July, up from 66.31 million in June and the highest on record since Refinitiv starting assessing cargoes in 2015.

Imports from Brazil also showed some recovery in July, reaching 19.88 million tonnes, up from 13.84 million in June.

However, it’s worth noting that imports from Brazil are still below potential, having been above 20 million tonnes a month for four months from September to December last year.

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