HPG - Vươn cao tầm vóc mới

Quote lại bài viết từ 12/7, ròng rã gần 1 tháng tây bán, ta bán... HPG nổ vol khủng.

Với các cổ rác, coin rác... thì mới phải cần hô hào nhau nắm giữ... chứ với HPG thì tự soi vào tài khoản của mình xem có mấy đồng, hô hào làm gì cho mệt

Hpg hiện nay lại quay lại giống thời covid.

Mình nghĩ anh em nên thận trọng hơn là vui mừng với những phiên vol to bất thường của HPG như hqua đấy

ai cũng sợ mỗi tây ko sợ, dự tháng 9-10 giá hrc tiếp tục tăng trên toàn thế giới nhé.

HERE WE GO Well, it has been about 3 weeks since my last long ass flood so as promised; here I am with a new one. I will try to be as brief as I can, please do ask your questions by mentions or a direct message. As usual, I will do my best to answer to each one of them. Meanwhile, my client list remains full right now and I will need another couple of months to accept a new client. CHINA I am not going to write a long analysis on China. it is pretty much the same old story. After intense volatility we have seen during the past 2 weeks, things have started to go a little crazy all around the globe. I personally hate this type of situation because major market players tend to stop and observe what the hell is going on at times like this and they are absolutely spot on to do so. When you have an increase of $25/t in a week and a $20/t decline the other week, it is time to chill. The volatility is not over yet. Fortunately, coke futures are about to close today with a limit up again and steel features showing stronger momentum after last week’s losses. Please note that, once again the movement is based on expectations and talks of production cuts. It is not like we are seeing the improvement due to better consumption. Real estate market continues to perform poorly compared to last year although a little improvement is seen in July for major cities. Furthermore, the extent of output cuts is not strong and is debatable. Mills margins have improved during the last price increase so they rightfully want to benefit from the situation while they can. Trade talks with the US area taken positively by the market but I do not believe the outcome will be very efficient. So far, we are just having pause after pause and this might be the case for the next few months. A win-win situation for both parties looks unlikely to me and one of the sides will have to compromise. I also have concerns about the next measures Trump will take against Russia as it can indirectly cause further problems with China. Whatever the outcome is, in my opinion Beijing intervention is still independently needed in order to boost domestic consumption. Lately, they have started to take measures such as child support money and small business support but these will not be enough. I think we are approaching to the time of LPR cuts and stronger stimulus looks likely by October, that is when the next 5-year plan will be announced but the date is unclear for now. One positive development for the steel market is that after deciding to go up from an 8 year low, recent $20 - $25/t increase on Chinese export prices has made Chinese offers become unattractive for many regions and that did cause market sentiment to be a little positive for some markets. Regardless, global steel market fundamentals are not strong for now and the first half of August should be pretty weak. I have better thoughts about September and October though. As you know, I have been anticipating a strong last quarter for some time now and I am still holding on to that view of mine. INDIA This is a complex market right now due to many factors. Recent trade situation with the US is not helping at all. Rupee’s depreciation against the USD is to an extent which the Central Bank will need to intervene. Thankfully, India has strong reserves and can cope with the economic impact but the longer the trade dispute goes, market confidence will struggle to improve. Right now, confidence is the main problem of all global steel markets and it is important if we are to see improved demand. Anyways, recent hikes on domestic raw material in India such as sponge iron had an influence on domestic scrap prices as well. As a result, production costs have increased. Although monsoon season is not over and heavy rains are still seen in many cities, major steel mills increased their longs and flats prices by $10 - $30/t for the month of August. I personally want to see how India will perform over the next 3 weeks because I am not really sure about current situation. First of all, July steel imports are very strong again. According to data I have seen (Source: BigMint) almost 485.000 tonnes (+%50 compared to June) of HRC was imported while exports were only at 128.000 tonnes. This does technically make India a net steel importer despite all the newly imposed ‘’import regulations’’. They are clearly not working. Furthermore, Indian EAF and IF furnaces continue to stay out of import scrap market due to price idea differences of $10 - $15/t. However, usually this time of the year would be ideal for them to start procuring and prepare for the next couple of months. I am still not seeing them back to the market and now that Rupee has depreciated, imports are going to be costlier. Unfortunately, India and Turkey shares a similar faith. Now that European Union has been struggling with HRC prices during the past couple of months (started to move up since the middle of last week) exports to the region have been weaker compared to regular times. In India’s case, they have also lost their GCC market share to Asian imports. Tough times. In my opinion, Indian market will have to get more active whether they want it or not sometime in September. With the end of seasonal factors and higher steel prices in the EU, along with possibly stronger scrap levels, India will need to say ‘’**** it, I am back’’. This looks like the only possible scenario for me because when you are the world’s 2nd largest steel producer, you cant play dead for 6 months. You are running on low scrap stocks and cant continue relying on domestic material because a sudden spike on demand will leave your hands tied. You have to take some action anticipating a recovery before the recovery actually happens. This is how things are looking at from a production point of view. The only thing which scares me is Trump’s potential actions towards India. The guy is unpredictable. SCRAP This is another tough cookie lately. Well, we are summer time and Europeans will go on their lovely vacation. Collection shall be lower for the month of August. Scrap suppliers are comfortable with their stocks and there are cargoes available for export while domestic market has not been doing very well. Many EU mills will start pressuring domestic scrap prices downwards during this first week of August and it shall be around €5 - €15/t decline on bids depending on the grade. Regardless, it is possible that suppliers may resist this push because of improved expectations for September and October. I am not a believer in features markets but the expectation is to see a €15 - €40/t hike on HRC levels from now on to end of October. It does sound realistic and is probable. Major EU mills have already announced several price hikes for October delivery material as well. However, as I always say it is the demand which matters. We have seen many attempts last year to increase prices but they have mostly failed. The positive thing right now is that the gaps between Asian origin and domestic material have narrowed down. Also, now that quotas are going to be problematic, it is possible for buyers to have stronger appetite for domestic material. Regardless, economic and tariff related developments will need to be positive if these expectations are to be realized. Anyways, if I were a European scrap supplier who does not have any financial concerns; I would not hurry too much to get rid of my stock. Obviously, holding to inventory costs serious money under today’s market circumstances but I also do not see any reason to off-load my material at a cheap level. my reasoning is simple: US domestic scrap market will remain strong and US exporters will have no reason to reduce their offers € - $ exchange rate remains strong at around 1.1550 which puts breakeven to around $340 cif TR features expectations for September – October look positive for now alternative target market appearance (India and Egypt) is quite likely Turkish mills will need to keep procuring scrap while semis cant be acceptable at today’s rates. domestic mills are likely to have improved scrap demand in a few weeks’ time and shall bid higher Basically, we will have to follow all these variables on weekly basis but I do agree that first half of August will be challenging. Regarding to short sea scrap situation, it is not having a good time. Sellers are trying to increase their offers to Turkey as they had to increase their dockside bids on Friday and even today. Romanian market is trying to measure new effects of the recently increased tax rate on any waste including scrap. Now that sellers will be directly taxed at %12, some observation might be needed. For most short sea suppliers though, selling to regional mills have been more profitable during the last 2 months. To conclude, as the world’s top ferrous scrap buyer; Turkey will need keep buying scrap because semis prices increased significantly, lead times are too long and Turkey’s domestic scrap supply is not enough to cover its needs, also bids are similar to EU origin anyway. As in the case for Asian scrap markets, it is a similar situation. As weather conditions improve countries like Taiwan will start preparing for the January and February which means they will have to improve their scrap intake. This week major producers have increased their bids for both domestic and import scrap. Obviously, cheaper semis supplied within Asia and East of Russia built a lot of pressure on Asian scrap as buyers preferred to replace their scrap needs with semis but now scrap is the primary option again. As long as China does not have a collapse, we shall see some improvement. Well, at least West Coast US offers should see some hikes, current levels are sucky sucky. TURKEY Turkish market had a decent bounce which was directly related to China’s improvement 2 weeks ago. Many buyers decided to restock as they were on low supply and prices have improved by $12 - $20/t in one week. Last week’s poor performance in China did not cause prices to decline as mills were already on negative margins. Turkish market will continue to have a tough time in terms of finances. Although TCMB will continue to reduce rates in September – October – December (unless a surprising political and economic development occurs), it takes time for rates to come down as banks take their time revising their interest rates. Meanwhile, strict policies on loans continue to be the case and it is remains difficult to access money. Cash remains very precious. In my honest opinion, I think Turkish steel market is about to leave the darkest times behind but challenging times will not be over. Market still heavily depends on improvement of global markets as mills capacities are far too large to be satisfied with only supplying to domestic market. Turkey will need to export material if we are to talk about a much stronger performance. Otherwise, capacities will continue to be operated at a low level and in terms of costs its just not sustainable. I do not expect Turkish rebar or HRC prices to decline significantly unless a Chinese crash occurs. Record numbers of imports have been seen lately with semis reaching over 500.000 tonnes a month and the first half of 2025 has been just too poor and damaged a lot. There is nothing which can hurt a steel market more than a lot of cheap imports. It is surprising that Turkish authorities do not act on this problem. Anyways, now that prices in Asia have increased and imports from Asian suppliers will clearly decrease, mills will not feel the pressure as much. It shall give them hope of some recovery although in terms of margins, they are still not out of the danger zone. Meanwhile, mills would obviously love to procure European origin scrap at $330 - $335 cif and US origin at $340 cif but that is unlikely to happen. I think they will have to accept $342 - $350 cif range for the time being and hope that domestic demand will be active. Europe’s potential improvement in September can be crucial for the Turkish market though. I am looking forward to next month because I don’t expect much from this one. Wishing you a good week.

27 rồi kìa các cụ.

nào 36 cụ gọi e với nhé

Nhân quả vô thường mà xoắn gì nhỉ, cứ sống như hôm nay là ngày cuối cùng của cuộc đời này ... trả hết nghiệp phước sẽ tự tìm đến, chúc thắng lớn nhé

Tuần sau nha , thấy cuộc gọi nhỡ thì gọi lại dùm.