HTI- Ai nhanh tay gắp bằng tay em

--- Gộp bài viết, 25/01/2015, Bài cũ: 25/01/2015 ---

Note của ACBS

HTI – Opening the overpass at Huong Lo No.2 – National Route No.1A crossing.

The opening on the very first day of 2015 will eliminate one of the traffic bottlenecks near HTI’s An Suong – An Lac tollbooth, increasing traffic flow. Besides, HTI had increased toll fees by around 33%-100% for all vehicle types, approved by Ho Chi Minh People Committee last December, in order to recover the total initial investment of VND407bn (~$19m).

Earlier, HTI had opened other two overpasses at Provincial No.10 and No.10B crossings on National Route No.1A with total initial investment of more than VND700bn. For these all projects, HTI will continue holding the toll collection right at An Suong – An Lac booth until 2033, which is the company’s core business in the foreseeable future. The booth belongs to the North part of Ho Chi Minh Ring Road No.2 project and receives traffic flows from surrounding industrial parks, from Binh Duong to the West and vice versa. The South part of Ring Road No.2 has been adjusted temporarily and will have been finished by 2016, closing the whole project and receiving traffic flows from Dong Nai to the West and vice versa. So, the two parts may not affect each other significantly.

We forecast HTI’s sales may reach VND190bn (~$9m) in 2014, up 4.4% YoY, and will jump 50% to around VND280bn (~$13m) in 2015, of which one third will be used to recover the total investment of Huong Lo No.2 overpass. Toll collection will contribute mostly to total sales while other stuff may be negligible. The bottom line may be around VND37bn ($1.7m) in 2014 and jump 50% to VND55bn ($2.6m) in 2015, equivalent to VND2,200 per share or PER at 0.5x given HTI’s current market price of VND11,400 per share.

However, for such a BOT infrastructure project, cash earnings and dividend payment are more important than accounting earnings. Without any important project and thus significant CAPEX to be like the last three years, we estimate 2015 free cash flow at around VND110bn (~$7m), affording cash dividend around VND1.5k-2k per share in 2015 (HTI actually paid VND1.5k dividend in 2012), equivalent to dividend yield of 13%-18%. So HTI share looks quite good compared to banking 12M deposit rate of 6%.



Mr. Huy Hoang - huyh@acbs.com.vn

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--- Gộp bài viết, 27/01/2015, Bài cũ: 27/01/2015 ---

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