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I've heard Warren say since very early in his life that the defference between a good bussiness and a bad one is that a good bussiness throws up one easy decision after another, whereas a bed one gives you horrible choices! (from THE REAL WARREN BUFFETT)

HSBC in Talks to Buy Control of Old Mutual’s Nedbank


Old Mutual Plc chief executive officer Julian Roberts

Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s largest bank, is in talks to buy a controlling stake in Old Mutual Plc’s Nedbank Group Ltd. that’s valued at about $7 billion to benefit from growing business ties between Asia and Africa.

HSBC may acquire as much as 70 percent of the Johannesburg- based bank, London-based Old Mutual said today. HSBC and Old Mutual are in exclusive talks and have eight weeks to reach an agreement for Nedbank, which has a market value of 71.5 billion rand ($9.8 billion).

HSBC said last month it was looking to expand in Africa as more companies in Asia, where the bank gets more than half of its profit, trade with the continent. The International Monetary Fund forecast 5 percent economic growth for Africa this year, five times the pace of the European Union, amid demand for the continent’s natural resources and an expansion of infrastructure. Old Mutual, Africa’s biggest insurer, wants to build its South African business while concentrating on insurance and paying down debt of as much as 1.5 billion pounds ($2.33 billion).


Nedbank Group Ltd chief executive officer Mike Brown

“Over time, the value of this deal would lie in leveraging off HSBC’s strengths in Asia and the growing Asia-Africa trade links,” said JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts, including Carla Antunes da Silva, in a note today.

Nedbank jumped as much as 7.4 percent in Johannesburg trading, the most since March, and ended the day 6 percent higher at 139.01 rand. Old Mutual gained 3.3 percent to 125 pence in London, while HSBC rose 0.7 percent to 638.9 pence.

HSBC ‘Pedigree’

Under the proposed transaction, HSBC may offer all Nedbank shareholders the opportunity to sell 70 of every 100 shares in the lender, according to Mike Brown, Nedbank’s chief executive officer. Nedbank would remain listed in South Africa and follow disclosure rules, Brown said.

“We believe a strong international banking partner” could accelerate Nedbank’s growth ambitions, Brown said. HSBC came through the global financial crisis with “a pedigree that speaks for itself,” and its possible acquisition of Nedbank may carry less risk than Old Mutual remaining the parent, Brown said. There haven’t been discussions about whether he would keep his job if the deal goes ahead, Brown said.


HSBC in Talks to Buy Controlling Stake in Nedbank

Old Mutual owns about 52 percent of Nedbank.

Africa, China

HSBC emerged ahead of Standard Chartered Plc as the favorite to purchase the controlling stake. London-based Standard Chartered, which gets three-quarters of its profit from Asia, was also considering a bid for Nedbank, a person familiar with the situation said in May. Tim Baxter, a London-based spokesman for Standard Chartered, declined to comment.

Nedbank, South Africa’s No. 4 bank by market value, would be HSBC’s first major takeover since the start of the global financial crisis. Nedbank, which traces its origins to the 1830s, provides banking services primarily to companies. Through an alliance with Ecobank Transnational Inc., which is listed in Nigeria and Ghana, Nedbank has a presence in 33 African countries.

“With 30 percent of exports destined for Asia, and China now its largest trading partner, South Africa’s prospects are brighter than ever,” Paul Harris, a spokesman for HSBC, said from Johannesburg today. HSBC, which entered South Africa in 1995, has five branches in the country.


Old Mutual Plc London HQ

‘Power Their Way’

Africa’s economy has a population that has just surpassed 1 billion. While the World Economic Forum on Africa in Tanzania this year dubbed corruption on the continent the “elephant in the room,” a McKinsey Global Institute report, published in June, said the region’s collective gross domestic product may reach $2.6 trillion by 2020, with consumer spending likely to reach $1.4 trillion in the next decade.

Nedbank accounted for 12 percent of Old Mutual’s revenue in 2009 and was the second-biggest earner for the group after the insurance business. Old Mutual would use some of the sale proceeds to boost operations in South Africa, said CEO Julian Roberts, adding that he hopes Nedbank and the insurer will keep close ties.

“This is great for the local banking industry,” Chris Gilmour, a Johannesburg-based analyst at Absa Investments, said in an e-mailed response to questions. “HSBC and Nedbank will be able to power their way into the rest of Africa, mainly concentrating on Chinese development deals involving multinational banks and companies.”

HSBC Brand

Africa’s largest bank, Standard Bank Group Ltd., sold a 20 percent stake to Industrial & Commercial Bank of China in 2008 as both lenders sought to capture financing opportunities between the two continents. FirstRand Ltd., South Africa’s second-largest banking group, signed a cooperation agreement with China Construction Bank Corp. last year. The shares advanced 3.2 percent today.

If HSBC succeeds in acquiring control of Nedbank, it “will surely make a massive, concerted effort to flex its muscles on the continent,” Gilmour said. “The HSBC brand will probably prevail over the Nedbank brand.”

HSBC, which has African operations in Egypt, Mauritius and Nigeria, was advised by Lazard Ltd. Old Mutual was advised by Lexicon Partners, Rothschild and Bank of America Corp., while Nedbank was advised by Credit Suisse Group AG.

On Aug. 6, Old Mutual said it has agreed to sell its U.S. life operations to Harbinger Capital Partners for $350 million to pay off debt and reduce assets in the U.S.

To contact the reporter on this story: Renee Bonorchis in Johannesburg at rbonorchis@bloomberg.net

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