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Odds Favor Correction Over New Bear


Published: Friday, 21 May 2010 | 12:23 PM ET

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By: John Melloy
Executive Producer, Fast Money





Based on 24 declines greater than 10 percent occurring during existing bull markets since 1962, the odds that this latest correction is actually the start of a new bear market are about 38 percent, according to Birinyi Associates. And if it is just a correction, then this is a great buying opportunity, history shows.
Nine of those times, the S&P 500 [.SPX 1087.69 16.10 (+1.5%) ] continued lower to form an official bear market, with declines of more than 20 percent. But the other 15 times the stock market rebounded sharply, gaining on average 5 percent, 17 percent and 21 percent in the one month, six month and 12 month periods following.
“The decline in risk assets has been, in our opinion, a bit overdone,” wrote Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for Miller Tabak & Co., in a note that cited the historical rapid price appreciation that follows corrections as well. “With respect to US companies, we would simply note that a relatively small portion of S&P 500 earnings are generated from the euro zone.”
The S&P 500 bounced today, following a 12 percent drop from its 2010 closing high in late April. Investors stepped in following three straight days of declines after Germany’s parliament approved their end of the European bailout, strengthening the euro [EUR=X 1.257 --- UNCH (0) ].
“The US decoupling from Europe is a myth,” said Brian Kelly, founder of Kanundrum Capital, who believes we are in for a new bear market. “We’re all globally linked. And China is slowing down too.”

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Past US corrections that ended shortly after a 10 percent decline have involved foreign forces, such as the Russian debt default of 1998 and the Asian currency crisis in 1997, according to Birinyi Associates. Whereas the last two full-blown bear markets here have involved US-centric forces, such as the housing collapse and the tech bubble.
For what it’s worth, the folks at Birniyi are bullish because of this historical data. “We remain bullish and target double-digit gains in the S&P 500 by year-end,” wrote Kevin Pleines, an analyst with the firm.
Regardless of how you feel, we should find out which way we’re headed in short order. The CBOE Options Volatility Index [VIX 40.1 -5.69 (-12.43%) ], a measure of fear in the marketplace, surged to 45 yesterday. The ratio, which measures the amount of bearish put activity vs. bullish call activity on the S&P 500 in the options pits, is at such an extreme that it is corresponding to future moves of almost 3 percent in the stock market every single day, according to calculations by MKM Partners.

Ko biết cái thông tin này có chuẩn ko? Mourinho đưa ra đội hình thiên về tấn công với 3 tiền đạo:

Jose Mourinho has done it again! He was accused of playing negative football prior to the big game and he has responded in typical Mourinho style by going with an all-attacking line-up which includes an attacking threesome of Eto'o-Pandev-Milito.

Inter Milan Starting Line-up: Julio Cesar, Javier Zanetti, Lucio, Samuel Eto'o, Wesley Sneijder, Maicon, Esteban Cambiasso, Diego Milito, Walter Samuel, Cristian Chivu, Goran Pandev.
Substitutes: Francesco Toldo, Ivan Cordoba, Dejan Stankovic, Sulley Muntari, Mariga, Marco Materazzi, Mario Balotelli

Bayern Munich Starting Line-up: Hans Jorg Butt, Daniel Van Buyten, Martin Demichelis, Hamil Altintop, Arjen Robben, Ivica Olic, Mark Van Bommel, Phillip Lahm, Thomas Muller, Holger Badstuber, Bastian Schweinsteiger.
Substitutes: Michael Rensing, Andreas Gorlitz, Miroslav Klose, Danijel Pranjic, Diego Contento, Mario Gomez, Anatoliy Tymoshchuk

Dđội hình thiên vê tấn công cho cả 2 đội, sẽ có nhiều bàn thắng cả 2 hiệp và vui mắt.

Tẩn cật lực, có được vốn rồi thì thủ ...

Hy vọng thế. Ivica Olic có thể là sự khác biệt

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