Lý do là đây : Vietnam Risks a Balance of Payments Crisis, Nomura Note Says

Lý do là đây : Vietnam Risks a Balance of Payments Crisis, Nomura Note Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aFoa9cVLt8qE



By Shelley Smith and Sarah McDonald

Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnam has the makings of a ?oclassic? emerging-market crisis and investors should buy protection against a sovereign default, according to Nomura Holdings Inc.

The South Asian nation?Ts consumer price index, overheating economy and falling foreign-exchange reserves are causing concern, Nomura analysts wrote in a note to clients yesterday.

?oMacro policies are too loose, which is resulting in too strong import absorption, rapid credit growth and rising CPI inflation,? the Tokyo-based bank?Ts note said. That?Ts ?oall pointing to overheating.?

Investors in emerging-market debt earned about 26 percent this year as the world recovered from the worst global recession since World War II, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co. index. Dubai World, a company owned by the Dubai emirate, roiled credit and stock markets last month after it sought to delay debt payments. That?Ts prompting concern the surge in emerging-market returns masks difficulties in specific nations.

?oIt is an exaggeration to say that Vietnam may have a balance of payments crisis,? Nguyen Ngoc Anh, deputy director general of banking and finance at Vietnam?Ts Ministry of Finance, said in a phone interview from Hanoi today. ?oWe are facing some difficulties with it, but they are just in the short term.?

The cost of insuring Vietnam?Ts debt from default may surge to 400 basis points if the balance of payments issue becomes more serious, Nomura said. Five-year contracts closed at 231 basis points yesterday, according to prices from CMA DataVision in New York.

Strive on Imports

?oDespite the sovereign having a low external debt repayment burden of only $2-$3 billion a year, risks of a balance of payments crisis remain,? Nomura said.

Vietnam?Ts central bank devalued its currency on Nov. 25 and raised interest rates to rein in inflation and a widening trade deficit that?Ts eroding confidence in the dong.

The trade deficit grew to $1.97 billion from $1.6 billion in October, while consumer prices climbed 4.4 percent in November from a year earlier -- the biggest increase since May. Inflation is likely to rise to ?odouble digits? by next year, the International Monetary Fund said on Dec. 3.

Vietnam risks a rating downgrade on its sovereign debt, Nomura said. The debt is rated Ba3 by Moody?Ts Investors Service and BB by Standard & Poor?Ts. That?Ts the third and second level below investment grade respectively.

The country will focus ?ofirst and foremost? on reducing macroeconomic imbalances in the economy, Prime Minister *************** said Dec. 3.

?oWe will strive to reduce imports and improve the international balance of payments,? Dung said. ?oWe will gradually reduce budget overspending and prevent the recurrence of high inflation.?

Vietnam has ?opromising potential? in the medium to longer term, Nomura said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Sarah McDonald in Sydney at smcdonald23@bloomberg.net.

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