Mễ quá quan tâm chứng khoán Việt Nam

Mễ quá quan tâm chứng khoán Việt Nam

Thằng Merrill Lynch và Bloomberg nói gì về chứng vậy các bác, dịch dùm em cái

Vietnamese Stocks May Not Rebound From 58% Plunge, Merrill Says

By Ian Sayson

June 6 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnamese stocks may extend this year''s worst slump among global markets as the government raises interest rates to quell inflation, Merrill Lynch & Co. said.

Higher borrowing costs will restrain earnings growth and prevent a ``huge bounce'''' in Vietnam''s equities, Mark Matthews, Asia Pacific head of equity strategy at Merrill Lynch & Co. in Hong Kong, said in an interview yesterday.

The Ho Chi Minh Stock Index extended a record losing streak to 21 days on concern a widening trade deficit and inflation at a 16-year high will prompt overseas funds to sell local holdings. The benchmark index, at its lowest in 27 months, has lost 58 percent this year.

``It won''t increase 30 percent in the next month or 50 percent in the next two months,'''' Matthews said. ``Investors can take the time they need to find the companies they want in Vietnam. I''d wait for some more clarity from the government on how it''s going to handle the issues facing the economy.''''

The Vietnamese dong is headed for a fifth weekly loss as Standard & Poor''s, Moody''s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings lowered their outlook for the nation''s debt to negative, citing a slow government response to inflation. Deutsche Bank AG, the world''s largest currency trader, and Morgan Stanley are predicting a devaluation of the dong as inflation accelerated to the fastest since 1992.

Taking Action

The government will take action on the economy ``soon'''' to stem the plunge, he said. ``The problem is once that bottom is in place there''s no real reason why stocks should immediately go up.''''

Central bankers raised Vietnam''s base rate from 8.75 percent to 12 percent on May 19. They have no current plans to increase it further, Nguyen Dong Tien, a deputy governor of the State Bank of Vietnam, said June 2.

The government this week cut its growth forecast for 2008 to 7 percent from 9 percent, and said curbing inflation is its top priority.

Consumer prices in the Southeast Asian nation gained 25.2 percent in May, according to the Hanoi-based General Statistics Office. The trade deficit tripled in the first five months of the year to $14.42 billion from $4.25 billion a year earlier.

``There are so many things to deal with in Vietnam,'''' Matthews said. ``The current account deficit is very high, inflation is very high and credit growth is extremely high, so there are going to be non-performing loans, probably. How do they deal with this requires a delicate balance.''''

The speed of the government''s response may determine whether Vietnam avoids a replay of Thailand''s economic collapse in the 1990s that slashed the benchmark SET index by 85 percent from January 1996 through August 1998, Matthews said.

``There''s no reason why Vietnam couldn''t fall another 70 percent'''' if there''s a repeat of the errors in Thailand, where the policy response ``was extremely slow,'''' he said. ``We will not see Vietnam rebounding, at least this year.''''