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Fed?Ts Yellen Sees ?~First Solid Signs?T of End to U.S. Recession
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By Vivien Lou Chen

July 28 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said the U.S. economy is showing the ?ofirst solid signs? of emerging from the recession and should resume growth later this year.

?oThat recovery is likely to be painfully slow? as consumers spend less and save more, Yellen also said in the text of a speech today in Coeur d?TAlene, Idaho. ?oA gradual recovery means that things won?Tt feel very good for some time to come.?

Yellen?Ts remarks echo the view of Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who told Congress last week the economy is showing ?otentative signs of stabilization.? Those indications include a rising stock market, slowing declines in housing prices and a waning pace of job losses, the regional bank president said.

?oThe interaction between the economy and the credit crunch, often described as an adverse feedback loop, led to what could become the most severe recession since the Great Depression,? the 62-year-old bank chief, who votes on monetary policy this year, said in the speech to a convention of the Oregon Bankers Association and Idaho Bankers Association.

?oWe glimpse the first solid signs since the recession started more than a year and a half ago that economic growth may be poised to resume,? Yellen said. ?oIndeed, I expect that to happen sometime this year,? she said, while adding that risks to the outlook remain, with the commercial property slump the biggest threat.

Fed Forecasts

Fed officials anticipate the U.S. economy will contract less this year than they had projected in April, even as unemployment climbs to as high as 10 percent, according to their latest forecasts released on July 15.

Consumer prices are now forecast to rise by 1 percent to 1.4 percent this year, compared with April projections of 0.6 percent to 0.9 percent. Excluding food and energy, prices are expected to increase 1.3 percent to 1.6 percent, up from a range of 1 percent to 1.5 percent three months earlier. The figures reflect the central tendency of projections, which exclude the three highest and three lowest forecasts.

Core inflation will probably remain below 2 percent ?ofor several years,? Yellen said.

?oThe Fed is keenly awarê? of the need to tighten policy in time to avert higher inflation, Yellen said. ?oWhen the economy does come back, I can assure you that we will act decisively and appropriately to tighten the stance of policy and maintain price stability.?

?~Quite Weak?T

Most Fed officials last month considered the economy ?ostill quite weak and vulnerable to further adverse shocks,? even as they rejected an expansion in asset purchases, according to minutes of their June 23-24 meeting in Washington.

Yellen today said ?othere remains some chance that economic conditions could turn out worse than what I?Tve sketched.?

?oHigh on my worry list is the possibility of another shock to the still-fragile financial system,? particularly in commercial real estate, she said. ?oOur biggest concern now is with maturing loans on depreciated commercial properties.?

Employers reduced payrolls by 467,000 last month and the unemployment rate rose to the highest in almost 26 years. The world?Ts largest economy has lost about 6.5 million jobs since December 2007.

Payrolls have shrunk at a ?odreadful pacê? and unemployment is poised to go higher, Yellen said.

The Fed lowered its main interest rate almost to zero in December, switching to asset purchases and credit programs as the main policy tools. Bernanke is leading plans to buy as much as $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities and $200 billion of federal agency debt, and $300 billion of long-term Treasuries.

The central bank?Ts actions have ?oserved to ease the funding pressures facing a broad range of banks and to stabilize the financial system,? Yellen said. ?oFor most banks, funding has stabilized since last fall, but remains quite fragile.?

To contact the reporter on this story: Vivien Lou Chen in San Francisco at vchen1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: July 28, 2009 12:35 EDT

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aaWJRspXIplA

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July 28 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said the U.S. economy is showing the ?ofirst solid signs? of emerging from the recession and should resume growth later this year.

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