PTKT TRÊN TTCKVN

Cox Radio Inc(NYSE:CXR) - MEDIA - Broadcasting - Radio

2005-03-09-CXR has formed a bullish reversal pattern in the chart. The stock has started to make a turn and the formation suggests that CXR is ready to establish a new primary uptrend.

US Market Review and Analysis





Được oanhoncodon sửa chữa / chuyển vào 05:41 ngày 18/08/2005

US Market Overview

August 17, 2005 - Markets to start lower on strong inflation data


U.S. producer prices rose 1% in July, well ahead of the consensus forecast for a 0.5% rise. The core rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.4% vs. an expected increase of 0.1%.

Early strength quickly evaporated and follows on another down day for U.S. stocks Tuesday. The Dow Industrials dropped 120 points, the Nasdaq lost 29 points and the S&P 500 gave back 14.5 points.



The S&P 500''''s hourly chart above serves as a detailed view of the past three weeks.

As the chart above illustrates, the S&P finally moved to one-month lows Tuesday, testing the neckline of its inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.

Recall the January high holds at 1,218 while the June high rests at 1,219. The S&P closed Tuesday at 1,219.

An obvious longer-term support point like that neckline would normally be expected to hold on the first and second tests.




Like the S&P, the Dow Industrials also edged to one-month lows Tuesday.

After holding a tight 195-point range, the Dow edged just under that band, closing Tuesday at 10,513.




The Nasdaq also made one-month lows Tuesday, failing to hold well-defined support at the 2,145 level, an area that goes back several weeks.

As a result, it still holds within a well-defined nine-session downtrend.



Widening the view to the daily time frame adds perspective to the Nasdaq''''s recent price activity.

Again, this time frame illustrates its violation of support at 2,145.

Yet also note proximity of the Nasdaq''''s 50-day moving average.

Based on the current picture, that 50-day holds at 2,126, or just 11 points under Tuesday''''s close of 2,137.

Note that after that 50-day, the index still faces very well-defined support at the 2,100 level.





The Dow Industrials actually edged under its major moving averages Tuesday.

Based on the current picture, the Dow''''s 50-day moving average holds at 10,538 while its 200-day rests at 10,527. The index closed Tuesday at 10,513.

Still, in recent months its major moving averages haven''''t meant much from a broad market standpoint. Note the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 both maintained their uptrend even when the Dow violated its major moving averages in June.

So while the recent weakness is worth noting, it''''s probably not the most important technical development taking shape.




Unlike the Dow, the S&P 500''''s daily view illustrates several notable points.

To start, the S&P pulled back Tuesday to retest the neckline as support. It ended Tuesday at 1,219, notching its worst close since July 8.

Yet also note the S&P''''s 50-day moving average currently rests at 1,218. The index hasn''''t closed under that 50-day since the current leg higher got started on May 18.

The most recent test of the 50-day occurred on July 7, the day of the London explosions.

So the S&P has closed in on obvious longer-term support that most traders will be watching. Again, that 1,218 level matches the neckline of the S&P''''s inverse head-and-shoulders pattern as well as its 50-day moving average.





Được oanhoncodon sửa chữa / chuyển vào 05:50 ngày 18/08/2005

US Market Overview

August 18, 2005 - Markets lift from support without conviction

U.S. stocks are set to open lower Thursday behind modest weakness in overseas markets.

Early weakness follows a modest rally attempt Wednesday despite the much stronger-than-expected producer price inflation data. The Dow Industrials rose 37 points, the Nasdaq gained 8 points and the S&P 500 edged higher by less than a point.





The S&P 500''''s hourly chart above serves as a detailed view of the past three weeks.

As the chart above illustrates, the S&P did hold support Wednesday at 1,218 despite the bearish inflation data released before the session. That was the silver lining Wednesday.

Still, despite holding support, the S&P''''s subsequent lift didn''''t exactly stir overwhelming bullishness. The index staged a limp eight-point intraday rally, stalling at first resistance around 1,226, and closing with a one-point gain.



The near-term story on the Dow Industrials is similar to that on the S&P.

The Dow made fresh one-month lows Wednesday before closing with a modest 37-point gain.

Yet despite those gains, the index struggled with resistance around 10,575, ending Wednesday well within the lower half of its three-week range.



Not surprisingly, the Nasdaq also carved out a "good news/bad news" kind of session.

On the positive side, the index did attempt to rally despite the bearish inflation data.

Yet at the same time, the Nasdaq struggled with its two-week downtrend, ending the session precisely on resistance at 2,145.

To be specific, the index closed Wednesday at 2,145.1.



Widening the view to the daily time frame adds perspective to the Nasdaq''''s recent price activity.

Again, this time frame illustrates its ongoing test of the technical level at 2,145.

Yet also note the proximity of the Nasdaq''''s 50-day moving average.

Based on the current picture, that 50-day holds at 2,128, or just 17 points under Wednesday''''s close of 2,145.

After that 50-day, the index still faces very well-defined support at the 2,100 level.




The Dow Industrials reclaimed its major moving averages Wednesday, albeit by a narrow margin.

Based on the current picture, the Dow''''s 50-day moving average holds at 10,540 while its 200-day rests at 10,530. The index closed Wednesday at 10,550.

Yet to reiterate the point made Wednesday, the Dow''''s major moving averages haven''''t meant much in recent months from a broad market standpoint. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 both maintained their uptrend even when the Dow violated its major moving averages in June.

So while the recent weakness is worth noting, it''''s probably not the most important technical development taking shape.



The S&P 500 continues to hold uncomfortably close to that well-defined longer-term support.

Again, the January high holds at 1,218 and the June high rests at 1,219. At the same time, the S&P''''s 50-day moving average currently holds at 1,218.

On Wednesday, the index touched an intraday low at 1,218.1 before ending the session at 1,220.2.






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Được oanhoncodon sửa chữa / chuyển vào 23:31 ngày 18/08/2005

US Market Overview

August 19, 2005 - Markets hold support without lifting



The pre-market bias is higher Friday behind strength in European markets, and despite a $1 increase in crude-oil futures, placing the price back atop $64 a barrel.

Early strength follows a mixed session for U.S. stocks Thursday. The Dow Industrials rose 4 points, the Nasdaq lost 9 points and the S&P 500 edged one point lower





The S&P 500''s hourly chart above serves as a detailed view of the past three weeks.

As the chart above illustrates, the S&P continues to hold support around the January high of 1,218.

In fact, that level has come into play on each of the prior three sessions. The S&P bottomed Tuesday at 1,219, and touched an intraday low Wednesday at 1,218. It also closed Thursday at 1,219.

Still, despite holding support, the index hasn''t managed to lift from support. On each of the previous three sessions, it has touched a "lower high" and a "lower low."





The near-term story on the Dow Industrials is similar to that on the S&P.

For two straight sessions, the index has struggled with resistance around 10,575.

And with that level serving as a near-term cap, the Dow still holds within the lower half of its three-week range.






The Nasdaq''s near-term picture is arguably the most bearish.

The index has established a well-entrenched two-week downtrend, which over the past week, has been closely observed as resistance.

Note that Thursday, the Nasdaq touched an intraday high at 2,146, marking a close match with the 2,145 resistance and its well-defined downtrend.

Also note that if the Nasdaq would trade back above that two-week downtrend - currently around 2,140 to 2,145 - the near-term lift should be tradable.






Widening the view to the daily time frame adds perspective to the Nasdaq''s recent price activity.

With Thursday''s 9-point loss, the index has slipped within striking distance of its 50-day moving average.

Based on the current picture, that 50-day holds at 2,130, or just 3 points under Thursday''s low of 2,133.

After that 50-day, the index still faces very well-defined support at the 2,100 level.

Following the steep July rally immediately after the London attacks, that 2,100 level still probably represents the best marker as far as the longer-term bias.

That is, without a decisive break under the 2,100 area, it will be difficult to aggressively bearish on the Nasdaq.






The Dow Industrials continues to hold its major moving averages, albeit by a narrow margin.

Based on the current picture, the Dow''s 50-day moving average rests at 10,542 while its 200-day holds at 10,533. The index closed Thursday at 10,554.

Yet to reiterate the point made earlier this week, the Dow''s major moving averages haven''t meant much in recent months from a broad market standpoint. Note the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 both maintained their uptrend even when the Dow violated its major moving averages in June.

So while the Dow''s recent weakness is worth noting, it''s probably not the most important technical development taking shape.







At the risk of getting a little too technical, there''s an interesting development taking shape that ties to the S&P''s inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.

Over the past several weeks, the January high has been used as a proxy for the neckline of this pattern.

That''s because the initial breakout to the January high, at the time marked new three-year highs, and was followed by a false breakout in early March that even at that time looked like a false breakout.

In the case of a false breakout, the original resistance, in this case the January high, still carries significance.

The fact that the June high fell within a point of that level - at 1,219 - and that over the past three sessions, the S&P has closely observed that 1,218 level point to its significance.

So while the January high is still the predominant area to track, there is one interesting development taking shape if you draw in the "text-book" version of the neckline.

That neckline is drawn in orange, and connects the two highs of each shoulder.

Notice that where the neckline terminates, now matches the lower trendline of its ascending channel in red.

The end point being, that if you were looking to draw an absolute line in the sand - and give the S&P a little extra breathing room - you could drop your fallback position 7 or 8 points to the 1,210 area, where those two trendlines meet.

If the index would break decisively under that area, it has not only violated those less important trendlines, but it has also placed distance under the January and June highs, as well as its 50-day moving average.

So that decisive break lower - again, decisive meaning strong volume and bearish internals - would be the point where it becomes difficult to shrug off this pullback as technically meaningless.

The corresponding area on the Nasdaq holds at 2,100.

US Market Overview

August 22, 2005 - Different day, same support points


The pre-market bias is higher Monday after the Nikkei reached four-year highs overnight.

Early strength follows another flat session for U.S. stocks Friday. The Dow Industrials rose 4 points, the Nasdaq slipped less than a point, and the S&P 500 added less than a point





The S&P 500''s hourly chart above serves as a detailed view of the past three weeks.

As the chart above illustrates, the S&P continues to hold support around the January high of 1,218.

In fact, that level has come into play on each of the prior four sessions.

Still, despite holding support, the index hasn''t yet managed to lift from support. For three straight sessions, the S&P has failed to clear minor resistance at 1,226.





The near-term story on the Dow Industrials is similar to that on the S&P.

Note that on Friday, the Dow did temporarily clear resistance around 10,575. Yet it stalled early in the session, ultimately closing at 10,559, near its session lows.

So with five straight closes under that 10,575 level, the index still holds within the lower half of its three-week range.






Not surprisingly, the Nasdaq also favors three-week lows.

Yet note that over the past four sessions, the index has begun to compress between support at 2,133 and its two-week downtrend.

More specifically, the Nasdaq touched intraday lows at 2,136 on Tuesday, 2,137 on Wednesday, 2,133 on Thursday and 2,135 on Friday.

So from the standpoint of downside support, the near-term price action looks similar to the S&P''s ongoing test of support at 1,218.

Also note that if the Nasdaq would trade back above that two-week downtrend -- currently around 2,140 -- the near-term lift should be tradable.






Widening the view to the daily time frame adds perspective to the Nasdaq''s recent price activity.

Note that with last week''s pullback, the index has slipped within striking distance of its 50-day moving average.

Based on the current picture, that 50-day holds at 2,133, marking an exact match with last week''s low.

After that 50-day, the index still faces very well-defined support at the 2,100 level.

Following the steep July rally immediately after the London public-transit attacks, that 2,100 level still probably represents the best marker as far as the longer-term bias.

That is, without a decisive break under the 2,100 area, it will be difficult to aggressively bearish on the Nasdaq.




The Dow Industrials continues to hold its major moving averages, albeit by a narrow margin.

Based on the current picture, the Dow''s 50-day moving average rests at 10,542 while its 200-day holds at 10,535.

The index closed Friday at 10,559.






The S&P 500 continues to hold uncomfortably close to that well-defined longer-term support.

Again, the January high holds at 1,218 and the June high rests at 1,219. At the same time, the S&P''s 50-day moving average currently holds at 1,219.5.

On Friday, the index touched an intraday low at 1,219.0 before ending the session at 1,219.7.

The bigger picture

Looking back at last week, both the S&P and the Nasdaq have established well-defined support that''s relatively easy to identify.

On the S&P, the support point isn''t a big surprise. The index has closely observed support around 1,218, which falls within a point of the January high, the June high and its 50-day moving average.

From a technical standpoint, this level has been repeatedly in play going all the way back to mid-March, if not further.

The Nasdaq''s support point is also relatively easy to identify, even if it''s slightly less significant than the S&P''s floor.

Namely, the Nasdaq has established support at 2,133, a level that going into Monday, precisely matched its 50-day moving average. The index notched an intraday low within four points of that level over four straight sessions.

So to this point, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have survived a first test of their 50-day moving average. The question now is, how do they respond this week?

As a practical matter, the longer-term technical backdrop remains bullish. Despite the two-week pullback, recent weakness still hasn''t come behind any real volume, or with internals that register bearish extremes.

Again, looking at the Nasdaq, the steep July breakout should set the primary trend, while this flatter light-volume pullback looks like countertrend consolidation, adding little to the longer-term backdrop.

As noted on the Nasdaq''s hourly chart above, if the index would trade back above its two-week downtrend -- currently around 2,140 -- the near-term lift should be tradable.

US Market Overview

August 24, 2005 - Markets to start lower on weak durables data


The pre-market bias is lower Wednesday following weaker-than-expected U.S. durable-goods data.

Durable orders dropped 4.9% in July, much steeper than the expected 1.5% decline. Yet the report is among the more volatile economic releases, reducing the significance of any single data point. Durables orders in June rose 2.8%.

Early weakness follows another slightly down day for U.S. stocks. The Dow Industrials lost 50 points on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 each gave back 4 points.






The S&P 500''s hourly chart above serves as a detailed view of the past three weeks.

At this point, the near-term picture should be relatively familiar.

The S&P continues to hold support in the general area of 1,218, and at the same time, refuses to lift from that area.

The index closed Tuesday at 1,217.5.







The near-term story on the Dow Industrials is similar to that on the S&P.

With Tuesday''s 50-point loss, the Dow broke its string of five consecutive positive closes.

It also touched a new three-week low on an intraday basis, at 10,496, before closing at 10,519. With those losses, it still holds the lower half of its three-week range.





Not surprisingly, the Nasdaq also favors three-week lows.

The index has established a well-entrenched two-week downtrend, which over the past week has been closely observed as resistance.

Note that on Tuesday, the Nasdaq touched an intraday high at 2,145 before backing off to close at 2,137.

The index also lifted from an intraday low Tuesday at 2,131.






Widening the view to the daily time frame adds perspective to the Nasdaq''s recent price activity.

Over the past several sessions, the index has closed in on a test of its 50-day moving average. Based on the current picture, that 50-day holds at 2,135, or just 2 points under Tuesday''s close of 2,137.

After that 50-day, the index still faces very well-defined support at the 2,100 level.





With Tuesday''s 50-point loss, the Dow Industrials edged back under its major moving averages.

Based on the current picture, the Dow''s 50-day moving average rests at 10,544, while its 200-day holds at 10,538. The index closed Tuesday at 10,519.

Still, from a broad market standpoint, its recent weakness isn''t necessarily a big issue. Again, the Dow violated its major moving averages in June without affecting the other indexes.






The S&P 500 continues to hold uncomfortably close to that well-defined longer-term support.

Again, the January high holds at 1,218 and the June high rests at 1,219. At the same time, the S&P''s 50-day moving average currently holds at 1,220.

So with Tuesday''s close at 1,217.5, the index continues to challenge this longer-term floor.

The bigger picture

Over the past week, the major averages have pulled back to support -- and stuck there.

And after five straight flatline sessions, at some point there are only so many ways to say the same thing: The Nasdaq and the S&P have pulled back to support, and to this point, there''s nothing about the pullback that looks technically disturbing.

Note that on Tuesday, the Nasdaq turned its second straight session of 1.3 billion share volume. So total volume remains light, suggesting this ongoing consolidation phase is exactly that -- orderly consolidation.

And as suggested Tuesday, without volume, the chances of a technically significant break -- in either direction -- aren''t great. So it may be that this trendless market is forced to run its course until volume picks up in early September, after the U.S. Labor Day holiday.

As one final point, the weak durables data released pre-market may be a good measure of how the markets respond to a catalyst. If there were ever a market that had priced in a weak economic report, it''s this one.

Yet over the past several weeks, the markets haven''t sustained a move driven by data. As a rule, recent reports have resulted in trendless whipsaws that add little to the overall backdrop.

While the markets sort out Wednesday''s data, recent weakness still hasn''t come on any real volume, or with internals registering bearish extremes. Until proven otherwise, the ongoing pullback looks like orderly consolidation within the context of a primary uptrend.




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US Market Overview

August 25, 2005 - S&P testing important support



The pre-market bias is flat-to-higher Thursday even with crude oil holding record levels atop $67 a barrel.

Early strength follows another session of losses for U.S. stocks Wednesday. The Dow Industrials dropped 84 points, while the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 each gave back 8 points.





The S&P 500''s hourly chart above serves as a detailed view of the past three weeks.

As the chart illustrates, on Wednesday the S&P finally violated obvious longer-term support around 1,218.

Again, that 1,218 level matches the January high, the June high of 1,219, and its 50-day moving average, which current holds at 1,220. It was also closely observed as support in the six sessions preceding Wednesday''s breakdown.

On further weakness, next support holds around the 1,200 level, and is followed by another significant band spanning from 1,188 to the April high of 1,192.






Like the S&P, the Dow Industrials also broke sharply lower Wednesday.

It violated support at 10,500, sending the index to an 84-point loss, and a close near session lows.

On further weakness, next support holds at 10,425 and is followed by longer-term support around 10,360.




Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, the Nasdaq was the only index not to breakdown Wednesday.

It closed Wednesday at 2,128.9 marking a close match with the designated support at 2,129.

Still, the index remains mired in what has become a well-entrenched three-week downtrend.

After temporarily edging above that trendline Wednesday, it topped just under resistance at 2,157, before closing at session lows.







Widening the view to the daily time frame adds perspective to the Nasdaq''s recent price activity.

As the chart above illustrates, Wednesday marked the Nasdaq''s first close below its 50-day moving average since May 13.

Again, the index closed Wednesday at 2,128 or about eight points under its 50-day moving average of 2,136.

On further weakness, the 2,100 level is still the best area to track. Recall that area was closely observed as resistance for the five months spanning February to June.








With Wednesday''s losses, the Dow Industrials placed distance under its major moving averages.

Based on the current picture, the Dow''s 50-day moving average rests at 10,542, while its 200-day holds at 10,539. The index closed Wednesday at 10,434.

On further weakness, next support holds at 10,425 and is followed by longer-term support around 10,360.






As the chart above illustrates, the S&P 500 finally placed distance Wednesday under support at 1,218.

And with those losses, the index moved straight to the next important area.

Namely, the S&P closed Wednesday at 1,209.6 marking a close match with the neckline of its inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, and the lower band of its four-month ascending channel.

So at this point, the index is genuinely pushing the envelope on where you can maintain a bullish view.

On further weakness, next support holds around the 1,200 level, and is followed by another significant band spanning from 1,188 to the April high of 1,192.

The bigger picture

At this point, it probably doesn''t hurt to step back and revisit the prior four-month uptrend.

The rally initially started in mid-May after the major averages traded decisively back above their major moving averages. In the process, each index closed above the upper band of its 20-day Bollinger bands.

After consolidating its gains for about five weeks, the uptrend resumed on July 7, when the markets staged an unusual rally immediately following the London attacks. That move came on strong volume, and was again punctuated by three consecutive Nasdaq closes above its 20-day bands.

Since then, the S&P has pulled back 36 points, or 2.9%, from four-year highs. At the same time, the Nasdaq''s weakness has been slightly more pronounced, giving back 90 points, or 4.0%.

And while reviewing the past is always nice, this recent backdrop is included because the current pullback still doesn''t look that technically significant.

After breaking decisively to four-year highs, the markets have undertaken a mundane three-week pullback, that''s now rounding itself out in late August - when nobody''s around.

To be fair, volume did pick up Wednesday with the S&P''s violation of that 1,218 level. The NYSE turned 1.97 billion shares while the Nasdaq traded 1.77 billion shares.

Yet at the same time, the internals registered levels you might see on any regular down day. Declining volume outpaced advancing volume by roughly 1.5 to 1 on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq.

In the end, there are times when the markets clearly signal a shift in trend. The July 2004 breakdown was a clear shift in trend, the January 2005 key reversal was a definite red flag, and even the false breakout in March was easy to identify technically. And as mentioned previously, the mid-May breakout was also an inflection point.

Yet the fact is, this current move doesn''t carry the earmarks of those other moves. To this point, the pullback looks like relatively orderly consolidation following a break to four-year highs.

From the standpoint of technical analysis, you have to draw the line somewhere, and the S&P is more or less on that line. If it would break down much further, this will be a mixed market, with the S&P in need of repairs while the Nasdaq looks reasonably healthy.

Again, the area to track on the Nasdaq is the 2,100 level, an area that formerly marked its five-month range top. Barring a close under that 2,100 level, it will be difficult to get aggressively bearish on the Nasdaq.

US Market Overview

August 26, 2005 - Yet another flat lift from support




U.S. stocks are set to open slightly lower Friday ahead of Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan''''s remarks to an economic symposium later in the morning.

Early weakness follows modest gains Thursday. The Dow Industrials rose 15 points, the Nasdaq gained 5 points and the S&P 500 added 2 points.








The S&P 500''''s hourly chart above serves as a detailed view of the past three weeks.

Note that after violating support at 1,218 on Wednesday, the S&P stabilized Thursday around the next longer-term floor at 1,209.

And in a familiar pattern, the index maintained support Thursday, without lifting significantly from support.

In fact, over the entire Thursday session, the S&P held a tight four-point range







The Dow Industrials'''' near-term picture is similar to the S&P''''s.

After violating support around 10,500 on Wednesday, the Dow stabilized Thursday around the next identifiable support. In fact, it bottomed Thursday at 10,428, closely matching the support designated in Thursday''''s review at 10,425.

Still, despite holding support, the Dow has yet to attract any real buyers. It held a narrow, 37-point intraday range Thursday.




Over the past several sessions, the Nasdaq has held up better than the other two indexes.

After bottoming Monday at 2,129, the index has yet to make a meaningful new low this week.

Still, the Nasdaq also has yet to sustain a break from its three-week downtrend, holding support at 2,129 Wednesday

As the leading index over the past several months, the Nasdaq''''s compression between that downtrend and support is among the more interesting technical developments taking shape.

That is, does the Nasdaq resolve the divergence between it and the other indexes by following the S&P to a break lower? Or does its relative strength hold, leading to a break above its downtrend, consistent with the primary trend?




Widening the view to the daily time frame adds perspective to the Nasdaq''''s recent price activity.

As the chart above illustrates, Thursday marked the Nasdaq''''s second consecutive close below its 50-day moving average.

The index closed Thursday at 2,134.4 or about two points under its 50-day moving average of 2,137.

On further weakness, the 2,100 level is still the best area to track. Recall that area was closely observed as resistance for the five months spanning February to June.





Even with Thursday''''s narrow gain, the Dow Industrials still holds some distance under its major moving averages.

Based on the current picture, the Dow''''s 50-day moving average rests at 10,539, while its 200-day holds at 10,538. The index closed Thursday at 10,450.

From current levels, next support holds at 10,425 and is followed by longer-term support around 10,360.






As this next chart illustrates, the S&P 500 continues to test notable longer-term support.

Namely, the S&P has closed in on the cross section of the neckline and the lower band of its four-month ascending channel.

So as suggested Thursday, the index is genuinely pushing the envelope on where you would maintain a bullish view.

On further weakness, next support holds around the 1,200 level, and is followed by another significant band spanning from 1,188 to the April high of 1,192.

The bigger picture

To close out this week, the near-term competing interests remain about the same.

From the standpoint of market bulls, the current backdrop is anything but inspiring. The Nasdaq has established a three-week downtrend, and can''''t get out of its way to sustain a break higher.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has violated support at 1,218 and is now testing the neckline of its inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.

So these aren''''t the developments that stir giddy bullishness. In fact, the Volatility Index, the VIX, which measures investor fear, is holding its highest levels since May 18.

Yet while its difficult to get excited about the current market, it''''s also tough to get overly concerned about it.

For the most part, the current pullback has come on light volume, and completely pedestrian market internals.

At the same time, the Nasdaq has led the more recent broad market moves, and its longer-term backdrop still looks relatively bullish. While it has pulled back, the index has yet to show real signs of a technical breakdown.

So again, the predominant uptrend was established by the Nasdaq''''s two strong spikes in mid-May and early July. Following those strong rallies, periods of consolidation are to be expected.

Total volume remains light, and as suggested earlier this week, without volume, the chances of a technically significant break in either direction aren''''t great. So it may be that this trendless market is forced to run its course until volume picks up in early September, after the U.S. Labor Day holiday.



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Được oanhoncodon sửa chữa / chuyển vào 23:56 ngày 26/08/2005

US Market Overview

August 29, 2005 - Markets are mixed to start the week




The pre-market bias is lower Monday as the markets contend with uncertainty tied to Hurricane Katrina and spiking crude-oil futures challenging $70 a barrel.

Early weakness follows a down day for U.S. stocks Friday. The Dow Industrials lost 53 points, the Nasdaq dropped 13 points, and the S&P 500 slipped 7.2 points.






The S&P 500''s hourly chart above serves as a detailed view of the past three weeks.

As the chart illustrates, Friday was yet another light-volume down session for the S&P.

After violating support at 1,209, the index maintained a tight range, subsequently observing that 1,209 area as resistance.

Also note that Friday''s close at 1,205 marks the S&P''s first close under its neckline, better illustrated on the daily chart further down the page.




The Dow Industrials also extended its losses Friday.

With Friday''s 53-point loss, the index violated support at 10,425, notching its worst close since July 7.

Over the past five sessions, the Dow has given back about 255 points.





Like the other indexes, the Nasdaq also holds three-week lows.

Note that Friday, the index violated support at 2,129 and subsequently observed that area as resistance.

Also note the Nasdaq has yet to sustain a break from its three-week downtrend. Each lift to that trendline has been met with resistance.






Widening the view to the daily time frame adds perspective to the Nasdaq''s recent price activity.

As the chart above illustrates, the index for the first time placed distance Friday under its 50-day moving average.

More specifically, the Nasdaq closed Friday at 2,120, or about 17 points under its 50-day moving average of 2,137.

On further weakness, the 2,100 level is still the best area to track. Recall that area was closely observed as resistance for the five months spanning February to June.




With Friday''s losses, the Dow Industrials placed further distance under its major moving averages.

Based on the current picture, the Dow''s 50-day moving average rests at 10,536, while its 200-day holds at 10,539. The index closed Friday at 10,397.

From current levels, next support holds at a longer-term floor around 10,360. The January low technically came in at 10,368.






As this next chart illustrates, the S&P 500 has violated the neckline of its inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.

That means over the prior three sessions, the S&P has failed to hold support at the following obvious areas:

The January high of 1,218.
The June high of 1,219.
The 50-day moving average, currently at 1,220.
The neckline around 1,209.
Now it''s worth noting the S&P closely observed that 1,218 area for about six sessions before breaking lower. Yet on failing to attract buyers, the index has staged a completely unconvincing light-volume breakdown.

On further weakness, next support holds around the 1,200 level, and is followed by another significant band spanning from 1,188 to the April high of 1,192.

The bigger picture

With Friday''s losses, this is a mixed market.

That is, from a technical standpoint, it probably makes sense to take a more neutral view of the S&P 500 while the Nasdaq still looks reasonably healthy on a longer-term basis.

Note that this neutral view of the S&P isn''t introduced because the index appears to be breaking down.

In fact, Friday''s losses came on last week''s lightest volume. The Nasdaq turned just 1.23 billion shares, while the S&P registered 1.54 billion shares.

Nonetheless, the S&P continues to slip - even through relatively obvious support points - and at some point a line has to be drawn.

The entire point of technical analysis is to avoid carving out exceptions into oblivion. With Friday''s close under the neckline, it becomes more difficult to justify a strictly technical basis for maintaining an unqualified bullish view.

To reassert the uptrend, you''d like to see the S&P reclaim easily identified resistance.

Based on the current picture, the 1,218 level matches the January and June highs, as well as its two-week downtrend, well illustrated on the hourly chart. The S&P closed Friday at 1,205.

So when or if the index reclaims that 1,218 level, its longer-term technical backdrop would improve.

On the Nasdaq, the longer-term backdrop still looks relatively healthy. Again, the primary uptrend was established by the two strong spikes in mid-May and early July, and following those strong rallies, periods of consolidation are to be expected.

As suggested several times in recent weeks, the 2,100 level is probably the best bull/bear barometer on the Nasdaq. That area formerly marked a five-month range top, and it should represent solid support on the first pullback.