PTKT TRÊN TTCKVN

US Market Overview

September 14, 2005 - Markets to start flat on weak retail sales


The pre-market bias is flat to higher Wednesday despite weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data.

August retail sales fell 2.1% in August, marking the biggest monthly decline in four years. The consensus estimate called for a 1.2% drop in August, after a 1.8% gain in July.

Early strength follows notable losses for U.S. stocks on Tuesday. The Dow Industrials dropped 85 points, the Nasdaq lost 11 points, and the S&P 500 slipped 9.3 points.









The S&P 500''''s hourly chart above serves as a detailed view of the past three weeks.

After topping out for two straight sessions just under four-year highs, the S&P consolidated its gains on Tuesday.

More specifically, the index touched an intraday high on Friday at 1,243.1 followed by Monday''''s high at 1,242.6.

After failing to break higher, it sold off Tuesday, violating support at 1,237 and observing that area as intraday resistance.

On further weakness, first support holds around 1,227 followed by the more important floor at 1,218.











The near-term picture on the Dow looks unusually similar to that of the S&P.

Again, the Dow stalled for two straight sessions at very well-defined resistance around 10,700. Recall it topped Friday at 10,696 and Monday at 10,701.

The failure to clear resistance led to Tuesday''''s sell off, in which the Dow violated support at 10,640 and subsequently observed that area as intraday resistance.

From current levels, next support holds around 10,570.









The Nasdaq also sold off Tuesday, gapping under its two-week uptrend as it closed with an 11-point loss.

Yet also note that on an intraday basis, the index closely observed the designated technical levels.

It touched an intraday high Tuesday at 2,185 and then observed an intraday low at 2,167.

Both areas have been in play since Thursday and have been revisited in each review since.










Widening the view to the daily time frame adds perspective to the Nasdaq''''s recent price activity.

Perhaps not surprisingly, Tuesday''''s losses look much less significant on this wider view. It takes more than one down day to alter a very strong intermediate-term uptrend.

Still, it''''s worth noting the Nasdaq''''s 50-day moving average now holds at 2,156, or just 15 points under Tuesday''''s close.

On a longer-term basis, the support spanning from 2,112 to 2,100 is still the most important area to track.










With Tuesday''''s losses, the Dow Industrials pulled back noticeably from the designated resistance around 10,700.

And with that pullback, it major moving averages are once again within view.

Based on the current picture, its 50-day moving average rests at 10,560, while its 200-day holds at 10,540.











The wider view on the S&P 500 remains distinctly bullish.

Since breaking out in early July, the index has successfully retested its neckline, before lifting within striking distance of new highs.

Even with Tuesday''''s losses, the S&P held 14 points under four-year highs.

The bigger picture

Tuesday''''s session was more technically driven than it might have appeared at first glance.

As the hourly charts illustrate, each index stalled Tuesday at obvious resistance before staging a noticeable pullback.

Specifically, the S&P turned two straight sessions just fractionally under its four-year high before selling off Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the Dow topped almost exactly at the 10,700 level before suffering Tuesday''''s 85-point loss.

And the Nasdaq stalled at less important, but still easily identifiable, resistance around 2,185, before pulling back to support Tuesday.

So again, each index observed well-defined resistance before selling off Tuesday -- nothing necessarily unusual there.

What was worth noting about Tuesday''''s session were the volume stats. Namely, Tuesday was a relatively strong-volume pullback, with 2.0 billion shares turned on the NYSE and 1.8 billion traded on the Nasdaq.

That''''s the first significant sell pressure the markets have experienced in weeks.

Nonetheless, the internals were less alarming. Advancing volume outpaced declining volume by just a 3-to-2 margin on the Nasdaq and by not quite 3 to 1 on the NYSE.

The other silver lining in Tuesday''''s pullback was the source of the weakness -- the justifiably maligned airlines, detailed in the next section. The Airline Index posted a 7.0% single-day loss, driven by the widely expected bankruptcy filings at Delta and Northwest.

Take everything together, and the S&P stalled just under obvious resistance, leading to not-so-surprising consolidation. Special circumstances in the airlines helped magnify the pullback, but the session adds little to the longer-term backdrop.











Được oanhoncodon sửa chữa / chuyển vào 06:44 ngày 15/09/2005

VN Market Overview

September 17, 2005 - ExitSignal (VN Technical Indicator review )

This is some Signal from VNINDEX and REE Chart:


VN Index chart (Lastupdate 09/16/2005 (C) Sirifin.com)







REE chart (Lastupdate 09/16/2005 (C) Sirifin.com)













Được oanhoncodon sửa chữa / chuyển vào 08:22 ngày 18/09/2005

US Market Overview

September 28, 2005 - Markets to rise on strong durable-goods data


The pre-market bias is higher Wednesday behind a stronger-than-expected increase in U.S. durable-goods orders.

August''s durable orders rose 3.3%, ahead of the consensus expectation calling for a 0.9% increase.

Early strength follows a third consecutive flat session for U.S. stocks on Tuesday. The Dow Industrials rose 12 points, the Nasdaq slipped 5 points, and the S&P 500 added just three hundredths of a point.









The S&P 500''s hourly chart above serves as a detailed view of the past three weeks.

After surviving a test of the 1,209 support last Wednesday, the index has been range-bound for a week now.

So after maintaining support, the subsequent rally attempt has been relatively flat. The index has yet to close above resistance at 1,218, and has failed to even reach its 50-day moving average.










The Dow Industrials has a similar look.

After holding support last week at 10,350, the subsequent lift has been limited.

From current levels, first resistance still holds at 10,520, a level that matches the Sept. 15 and Sept. 19 lows.











Not surprisingly, the Nasdaq looks a lot like the other two indexes.

As the chart illustrates, it has maintained support around the 2,100 level, technically bottoming last week at 2,093.

Yet like the other indexes, while the Nasdaq has maintained support, it has yet to lift convincingly from support.











Widening the view to the daily time frame adds perspective to the Nasdaq''s recent price activity.

Again, the index has survived a test of 2,100, lifting modestly from that area over the past week.

Also note this time frame illustrates two competing chart patterns -- namely, the descending triangle taking shape from the July high to the recent test of the 2,100 level vs. the bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that was resolved with the steep July breakout.

As suggested here repeatedly, the tension between those two patterns rests right in the 2,100 area. Under normal circumstances, a pullback to the 2,100 area would be viewed as a buying opportunity rather than a reason for concern.











The Dow Industrials also successfully tested support last week.

Again, it touched an intraday low Thursday at 10,350, precisely matching the designated floor.

With that rally, the Dow remains within a tight, 370-point range. Its 10-week range top technically rests at 10,719, while its range bottom holds at 10,349.











Like the other two indexes, the S&P also rallied last week from major support.

More specifically, it attracted buyers around the neckline of its inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, marking the second successful test of that area in a month.

The bigger picture

By this point, the successful tests of major support have been relatively well documented. Yet because this is what''s going on technically, the specific areas very quickly have fallen out as follows:

The Dow has lifted from support precisely at 10,350.
The S&P attracted buyers right around its neckline, maintaining a stance above the August low of 1,201.
The Nasdaq survived a second test of the 2,100 area.
So again, the markets have attracted buyers at obvious longer-term support, which is bullish.

Yet after three consecutive flat sessions, there''s another dynamic taking shape as well. Namely, the markets aren''t exactly screaming higher from support.

As the hourly charts above illustrate, the major averages have instead lifted reflexively, holding a tight one-week range.

Take everything together, and the near-term trend is again running contrary to the primary trend, similar to the backdrop in August.

And as the August pullback proved, there''s nothing wrong with a little near-term consolidation. Just because the markets pull back, you don''t abandon the long-term uptrend.

So for better or worse, the fallback position -- the point where you would reconsider the overall market outlook -- remains about the same.

That is, unless the S&P would break decisively under the 1,201 level -- the August low -- it will be difficult to get aggressively bearish. The corresponding level on the Nasdaq now holds in the 2,093 to 2,100 area.

To reiterate the point made last week, a break under those levels would mark a "lower low" against the August low, placing the primary uptrend in question. Absent that breakdown, the ongoing pullback still looks like garden-variety consolidation within the context of a longer-term uptrend.

VN Market Overview

September 28, 2005 - VN Index down thảm hại sau đợt lũ quét


He, VN Index sau thời gian lũ quét lại down, $$$ lại được đắp chăn đón mùa đông cho ấm !!!







Được oanhoncodon sửa chữa / chuyển vào 21:11 ngày 29/09/2005

US Market Overview

September 29, 2005 - Holding a tight range to end the third quarter







The pre-market bias is flat to lower Thursday following in-line data on U.S. GDP growth, which came in unrevised at 3.3%.

Early weakness follows a fourth straight flat session for U.S. stocks on Wednesday. The Dow Industrials rose 16 points, while the Nasdaq slipped one point, and the S&P 500 added a point.

















The S&P 500''s hourly chart above serves as a detailed view of the past three weeks.

After surviving a test of the 1,209 support last week, the index has been range-bound for six sessions.

In fact, the range has been so tight, the S&P has notched five consecutive closes within a narrow two-point band. It closed Thursday at 1,214, Friday at 1,215, Monday at 1,215, Tuesday at 1,215 and Wednesday at 1,216.

So again, the S&P has yet to close above resistance at 1,218, and to this point, hasn''t reached its 50-day moving average.








The Dow Industrials have a similar look.

After holding support last week at 10,350, the subsequent lift has been limited.

From current levels, first resistance still holds at 10,520, a level that matches the Sept. 15 and Sept. 19 lows.

The Dow topped intraday Wednesday at 10,512.











Not surprisingly, the Nasdaq looks a lot like the other two indexes.

As the chart illustrates, it has maintained support around the 2,100 level, technically bottoming last week at 2,093.

Yet like the other indexes, while the Nasdaq has maintained support, it has yet to lift convincingly from support.











Widening the view to the daily time frame adds perspective to the Nasdaq''s recent price activity.

Again, the index has survived a test of 2,100, lifting modestly from that area over the past week.

Also note this time frame illustrates two competing chart patterns -- namely, the descending triangle taking shape from the July high to the recent test of the 2,100 level vs. the bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that was resolved with the steep July breakout.

As suggested here repeatedly, the tension between those two patterns rests right in the 2,100 area. Under normal circumstances, a pullback to the 2,100 area would be viewed as a buying opportunity rather than a reason for concern.











The Dow Industrials also successfully tested support last week.

Again, it touched an intraday low last Thursday at 10,350, precisely matching the designated floor.

With that rally, the Dow remains within a narrow, 10-week, 370-point range.










Like the other two indexes, the S&P also rallied last week from major support.

More specifically, it attracted buyers around the neckline of its inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, marking the second successful test of that area in a month.

Yet also note that over the past four sessions, the S&P has carved four consecutive indecisive doji''s.

A doji is a single-candlestick pattern in which the opening and closing levels come in roughly the same.

From the standpoint of its interpretation, a doji is a hesitation pattern. Unfortunately, "hesitation" doesn''t necessarily translate to "reversal." The doji raises a flag as to the prospect of a reversal, but needs confirmation through future price action.

In this case, the extended hesitation is understandable, coming after the second successful test of the neckline.

The bigger picture

After four flat sessions, the overall technical backdrop is essentially unchanged.

Last week, each index successfully tested major support. That fact has been beaten into the ground.

Yet after successfully testing support, the subsequent lift has been lukewarm at best. In fact, the S&P 500 has notched five straight closes within a narrow two-point band.

And since the price action has been so range-bound this week, there''s an outside point tied to market sentiment that''s worth addressing.

Without getting overly technical, the Put/Call Ratio is a contrarian indicator that gauges market fear. More specifically, it measures the number of put options, or bets the market will go down, vs. the number of call options, which are bets the market will rise.

The put volume divided by the call volume yields the Put/Call Ratio.

From the standpoint of interpretation, high readings are a sign of market fear, which is a bullish indicator. Conversely, low readings suggest complacency, increasing the risk of a market downturn.

So again, high Put/Call Ratio readings are bullish, while low readings bearish.

Exactly a week ago, on September 22, the Put/Call Ratio registered 1.41, matching its highest levels this year.

In fact, the only other time this year the ratio exceeded 1.40 was in mid-April, or almost precisely when the markets touched their 2005 lows. (As a reference point, the ratio''s 200-day moving average holds much lower, at 0.90.)

From those mid-April levels, the U.S. markets embarked on a strong five-month rally which is still in play today.

So as recently as last week, the sentiment backdrop almost precisely matched the backdrop that triggered the strong five-month rally from the mid-April lows.

Perhaps even more intriguingly, the Put/Call Ratio''s 20-day moving average - which smoothes out extreme outliers - notched an even higher level last week than it did in mid-April.

When combined with the successful, though admittedly tenuous, recent test of support, the bullish sentiment backdrop furthers the case that the primary uptrend is intact. In fact, as recently as late last week, the sentiment backdrop was arguably as bullish as it''s been all year.

US Market Overview

September 30, 2005 - Markets finally clear first resistance



The pre-market bias is flat to lower Friday as investors position for the third quarter''s final session.

Early weakness follows notable gains for U.S. stocks Thursday. The Dow Industrials rose 79 points, the Nasdaq gained 25, and the S&P 500 added 10.8.










The S&P 500''s hourly chart above serves as a detailed view of the past three weeks.

After six sessions of range-bound consolidation, the index finally cleared first resistance Thursday.

And after breaking higher, the S&P also edged above the next technical level at 1,227, which closely matches its 50-day moving average of 1,226.2.

The S&P closed Thursday at 1,227.7.











Like the S&P, the Dow Industrials also staged a sharp rally Thursday.

With those gains, the index cleared resistance at 10,520, breaking cleanly from its six-session range.










Not surprisingly, the Nasdaq also cleared resistance Thursday.

And after breaking from resistance, the index moved straight to the next technical level ranging from 2,139 to 2,142 - an area well illustrated in the Sept. 16 review.

The Nasdaq closed Thursday at 2,141.

Take the three indexes together, and each successfully tested major support, held a tight one-week range, and then broke decisively above resistance on Thursday.











Widening the view to the daily time frame adds perspective to the Nasdaq''s recent price activity.

Again, with Thursday''s rally, the index has placed distance above major support around 2,100.

From current levels, next resistance holds at its 50-day moving average, currently at 2,155.

Recall that 50-day marked a sticking point across four straight sessions in mid-September, leading to the extended pullback into last week.











With Thursday''s rally the Dow Industrials are once again challenging their major moving averages.

Based on the current picture, the index''s 200-day moving average holds at 10,538, while its 50-day rests at 10,556.

The Dow closed Thursday at 10,552.













The wider view on the S&P 500 also remains bullish.

Since breaking out in early July, the index has twice retested its neckline, placing distance above that area Thursday.

With Thursday''s rally, the S&P has reclaimed resistance around the January high, also edging above its 50-day moving average.

The bigger picture

With Thursday''s gains, the major averages finally reclaimed first resistance.

More specifically, each index broke from a well-defined six-session range, trading to its best levels in almost two weeks.

So looking back, after maintaining major support last week, each index held a tight one-week range before finally placing distance above support Thursday. That''s bullish.

Yet even beyond the price action itself - clearing resistance - the underlying conviction Thursday was also notable.

Total volume was strong, with 2.17 billion shares turned on the NYSE and 1.85 billion shares traded on the Nasdaq.

At the same, the market internals were respectable Thursday, though not extreme. Advancing volume outpaced declining volume by nearly 3 to 1 on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq.

Take everything together, and after Thursday''s rally, the primary uptrend is that much more firmly entrenched. Remember, the recent sentiment backdrop, as described in the Thursday review, is as favorable as it''s been all year.

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