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Diversion of cane to ethanol to drag India’s sugar output, export
BL Bengaluru Bureau Updated on: May 27, 2022

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India’s sugar production and exports for the 2022-23 season starting October are set to decline on likely higher diversion of sugarcane to ethanol production.

The Foreign Agriculture Service, US Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its latest report, has forecast the country’s sugar production at 35.8 million tonnes (mt) for 2022-23 against 36.88 mt in the current sugar season ending September.

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“India’s production is forecast to decline three per cent to 35.8 mt as less sugarcane is processed for sugar. Consumption is anticipated at a record high with the expectation of continued favourable retail and institutional sugar demand. Imports are unchanged while exports are expected to decline by over 40 per cent given the expected return to normal trade volumes. Record exports are estimated for 2021-22 following global supply shortfalls,” the USDA said.

It expects India’s sugar consumption to increase to 29.5 mt in 2022-23 from current year’s 29 mt.

According to trade sources, Indian exporters have already shipped out 7.1 mt of sugar till April end and have signed contracts for over 8.5 mt.

Export curbs
Recently, the Centre has amended the sugar export policy by placing the commodity under the ‘restricted’ category. Amid overseas sales, India issued a notification curbing exports of sugar to check domestic inflation and to channel more sugar cane into ethanol production, the USDA said. The Government has set ethanol blending target of 20 per cent with petrol by 2023-24.

The exports occurring after June 1 will require special permission from the Directorate of Sugar, Food Ministry. However, the sugar exports destined for the United States and the European Union under its tariff-rate quota and Schedule CXL quotas, respectively, are exempted from this directive. As a result of lower exports, theending stocks are forecast to increase by almost 15 per cent.

Global scenario
Global output of sugar is expected to increase by 1.7 mt to 182.9 mt in 2022-23 on higher output in Brazil, China, and Russia, which is expected to more than offset declines in India and Ukraine, the USDA said.

Global consumption in 2022-23 is anticipated to rise to a new record due to growth in markets including China, India, Indonesia, and Russia. Exports are projected down as the drop in India more than offsets higher exports from Brazil and Thailand. The year-ending stocks are forecast lower as growth in global consumption exceeds the rise in production.

The USDA said China is forecast to import less in favour of drawing down stocks for its consumption. Thailand is expected to draw down stocks in the face of strong global demand.

European sugar export premium hits record high on low supply, high demand

16 hours ago


The Platts White Sugar Containers EU 45IC FAS Antwerp Premium for April shipment reached a record high of $155/mt to the underlying May London No. 5 futures contract on May 25 on high domestic demand and lower supply, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.

“The main concern now is how to get sugar delivered at the right time and be exported, especially with freight rates being very high out of Europe,” a source said.

There was no volume available for exports, with stock levels just enough to meet domestic needs, the source added.

“People [had been] looking more at India and Brazil for sourcing sugar with the new crop production in Brazil beginning in June, especially now that the EU is out of the picture,” a second source said.

However, India, the world’s biggest producer of sugar and the second largest exporter behind Brazil, earlier in the week said it will limit sugar exports to 10 million tons for the marketing season that runs till September. This will mostly affect white sugar exports.
The move had an effect on the underlying ICE Sugar London futures front-month contract that were trading 1.3% higher at $563.9/mt on May 25. The futures have gained 13.4% since January and were 3.3% less than a five-and-a-half year high, S&P Global data showed.

The White Sugar Containers EU 45IC outright price was also assessed at an record high of $717.7/mt on March 25, up 5.4% on the day, according to S&P Global data.

“Availability for export is very low, prices within Europe are [very] high, and there are no plans for producers to reduce prices in the coming months. So big exports coming out of Europe look unlikely,” a third source said.

On May 20, Platts Western Europe White Sugar Delivered hit an all-time high of Eur920/mt, Platts Mediterranean Europe White Sugar Delivered hit 870/mt, 0.3% lower than the all-time high recorded the previous week, and Platts UK White Sugar Delivered hit an all-time high of Eur875/mt.

Corn, wheat, and barley prices have increased across the EU, resulting in sugar growers considering these crops as alternatives.

Meanwhile, the cost to produce sugar from beets has increased because of rising input costs, such as fertilizer prices, as well as oil and gas costs because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Tight sugar availability and rising logistical costs have also contributed to rallying spot sugar prices across the Mediterranean and Western Europe regions.

However, if domestic prices continue to rise and become too high compared with the export premium, this gives no incentive for EU producers to export sugar.

A fourth source said: “Even at a premium of $200 to the August contract, spot prices are now hitting such high levels in the region of Eur900/mt so producers would not export at this discount.”

The number of clients still under covered was unclear, with participants trying to avoid buying on relatively high levels, a fifth source said.

There was still demand for sugar in the traditional destinations covered by European exports, according to sources. On the other hand, supply had tightened from regions such as the EU, Ukraine, Algeria as well as India due to export bans, and Morocco was sold out.

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--- Gộp bài viết, 29/05/2022, Bài cũ: 29/05/2022 ---

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Ukraine war: China on alert as sugar shortage signals new front in global food crisis


By ORANGE WANG

• CHINA
• Sunday, 29 May 2022
  
  9:35 AM MYT

Anxiety about a looming global food crisis has ratcheted up a notch as spillovers from the Ukraine war spread from grain to sugar, while export restrictions imposed by many countries are expected to keep driving up prices.

Though the world’s least developed countries are likely to be hit hardest by higher sugar prices, China’s sugar output is tipped to be lower than expected this year, meaning more imports will be needed to meet domestic demand.

There are signs, however, that Chinese consumption of sugar is already falling amid rising import costs and strict coronavirus controls.

Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.

Several nations have moved to limit exports of key commodities since the war in Ukraine started in late February, fearful food security is under threat with agricultural prices rising.

5 major concerns for China’s food security
Kazakhstan started a six-month-long ban on white and cane sugar exports on Monday.

Pakistan imposed a “complete ban” on sugar exports earlier this month, worried about high inflation. Russia in March also banned sugar exports until the end of August following Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine.

Various sugar cane mills in Brazil, the world’s top producer and exporter, are reported to be cancelling some export contracts and shifting production to ethanol to cash in on high energy prices, which have also been pushed up by the war in Ukraine.

“For sugar, it’s relatively easy for Brazilian mills to switch production to ethanol production if the economics make sense, and this can push global sugar markets higher,” said Darin Friedrichs, a founder and market research director at Sitonia Consulting, a Shanghai-based commodities analysis firm.

With food prices rising rapidly, there have been more countries looking to cool domestic inflation by limiting exports
Darin Friedrichs
“With food prices rising rapidly, there have been more countries looking to cool domestic inflation by limiting exports, but this can disrupt supply chains and lead to higher prices on the global markets.

“In particular, as both food and energy prices are rising, there is increased focus on the use of food for the production of fuel.”

Sugar is regarded as a strategic resource by many countries, since it can be used not only in food, but for producing ethanol that can have a wide range of applications, from medicine to explosives.

Global commodities trader Louis Dreyfus said earlier this month Brazilian mills would divert a larger-than-expected amount of sugar cane to ethanol production, warning that could prompt “a shortage of sugar”.

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