Tây bảo : Tiền đang rời khỏi Việt Nam

http://dvt.vn/20101018121425875p0c69/financial-times-dong-tien-nong-dang-roi-khoi-viet-nam.htm

http://dvt.vn/20101018121425875p0c69/financial-times-dong-tien-nong-dang-roi-khoi-viet-nam.htm link ngay ở title mà các bác

bản chính bên dưới (bị mấy thằng củ chuối dịch lừa đả))

Vietnam: not hot money, but ‘what money?’ mà nó dịch là...Dòng tiền nóng đang rời khỏi VN

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Vietnam: not hot money, but ‘what money?’

October 15, 2010 8:09am by Ben Bland
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While Thailand and other southeast Asian economies are struggling to control “hot money” inflows, toppy equity markets and strengthening currencies, Vietnam rather looks like the odd one out.
Vietnamese stocks, as measured by the benchmark VN-Index, are down 12 per cent this year (in local currency terms) and economists are predicting further weakness in the sickly dong, which the central bank has devalued three times since last November.
Vietnam is certainly growing at a rate that ought to be impressive enough to attract cheap western money that is looking for good returns in emerging markets.
Most economists think that Vietnam is on course to meet the government’s GDP growth target of 6.5 per cent this year.
But concerns about macro-economic stability and the difficulties of finding attractive investment opportunities ensure that the hot money is heading elsewhere within the region.
The IMF warned last month that “inadequate clarity” on government policy had “undermined market confidence” and recommended that “transparency in government intentions, based on higher quality data published [in a] timely [manner], should be further advanced to provide market players predictability.”
Of the roadblocks facing portfolio investors, you can take your pick from the difficulties of repatriating your capital caused by the regular dollar shortages; relatively high asset valuations; or the lack of access to markets: there are just a few foreign-managed and listed funds and not many local brokerages that international investors would feel comfortable doing business with.
Most of the big investment banks are negative on Vietnam’s investment potential at the moment, with UBS summing up the mood with a rather sceptical recent note warning that Vietnam “is now in the midst of the largest credit expansion we [have] seen anywhere in the 80-plus emerging countries we cover in the past two decades years.”
Hong Kong-based economist Jonathan Anderson warned:

If the authorities get a handle on the situation and rein in credit growth more or less permanently from here, we could perhaps avoid a sharper outcome.
Otherwise, more dramatic risk scenarios involve either a collapse in the domestic banking system or an external currency crisis - with the emphasis, in our view, on the latter version given that (i) Vietnam runs extraordinarily high trade and current account deficits even by EM standards, (ii) official FX reserves have declined steadily to very low levels as a share of imports, and (ii) the currency has already been under steady weakening pressure throughout the past three years.
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In any case, UBS, like most of the other big investment banks, has no serious presence in Vietnam, automatically putting the country off the radar of many investors.
“Most of the big financial houses aren’t operating here and the macro situation just looks weird so they say screw it, let’s go to Indonesia, which has really improved its transparency since 1997,” says one Vietnam-based economist.
Related reading:
Vietnam hits back at IMF criticism, FT
Thai bond tax: bid to control hot money, beyondbrics
Hurdles litter path but Vietnam investment to rise, Reuters
Tags: investment, Vietnam
Comment

chủ thớt mù english thì có thể nhờ giáo sư english dịch giúp để rõ ràng hơn

Tây khác ta ở chỗ không lên F319 pốt bài, nó kiếm thằng chiên dza đăng hẳn lên FT, đỡ bị lốc níc.

Tin này thì a Thăng k đổ tiền định mua BP vào chứng khoán, chẳng lẽ lại đổ vào vàng: http://cafef.vn/20101018035826891CA3...p-viet-nam.chn
Đây cũng chính là lý do thanh khoản thị trường sụt giảm thời gian qua

1 năm qua gần 1 tỷ USD mua ròng trên TTCKVN, chưa kể đầu tư vào trái phiếu, cộng lại gần 2 tỷ USD, thế mà bảo dòng tiền nóng rút khỏi Việt Nam. Đúng là báo lá cải (chú ý : báo lá cải nước ngoài nhiều hơn VN), nói bừa vô bằng vô chứng.