Tháng 5 - Giải pháp cho 6 tháng cuối năm 2012

Cheap valuation, monthly revisions to ASPs could provide earnings upside

We reiterate a BUY recommendation on PGS and raise target price from VND20,600 to VND30,300. Net earnings increased 20.7% YoY on a 50.4% jump in sales in the first quarter and looks to be on pace to beat our previous estimates of a 15.6% increase in revenue and 1.2% increase in net income for the full year. PGS is trading at an undemanding PER of 3.8x our expected 2012 earnings of VND6,341 per share.

Trading at 26% discount to intrinsic value and is cheap versus peers. While we are aware that EPS growth appears weak (due mainly to a depreciation accounting change), our DCF-derived target price is underpinned by strong cash flows through a 5-year forecast period. For 2012, we expect depreciation expense to increase by 73.2% from VND191bn in 2011 to VND331bn in 2012 due to the company migrating from a 6-year depreciation period to 4. Among its domestic peers, PGS offers one of the highest ROE of 30%, while still trading at a relatively low PER.

Monthly price revisions to provide upside to earnings on rising oil prices. From 2Q2012 onwards PGS will be free from the annual contracts signed with clients that prevented the company from benefiting from rising oil prices and pass-through increased input costs. The company will be able to adjust its contracts monthly going forward. By the end of April, world oil prices have reached USD119/barrel, a 10.8% increase from the end of 2011. Domestic FO (Mazut) price, after two hikes on 07 March and 20 April to VND19,200 per litre, increased by 14.3% compared to late 2011. Free from the lock-up, PGS has already raised ASPs 16.6% to USD17.60/MMBtu.

Downside risk is limited with compressed natural gas prices indexed to FO prices. Although oil prices have weakened, our view is that the government will not lower domestic FO prices to which compressed natural gas prices are indexed. The government will use the extra revenue to replenish the price stabilisation fund or raise the import tax which is currently at 0% providing support for domestic FO prices.

Figure 1: Domestic FO prices vs. Crude oil prices
Please refer to tables/charts in PDF here

1Q2012 performance. PGS announced its unconsolidated 1Q2012 financial results with revenue of VND1,563bn (+50.4% YoY) and net income of VND29.1bn (+20.7% YoY). Strong revenue came from an 18.5% increase in ASP and 36.3% increase in volume of LPG product compared to 1Q2012. Net income increased by 20.7% compared to Q12011. Gross profit margin decreased from 9.8% in 1Q11 to 7% in 1Q2012, due to the cost of CNG product increased. For CNG, input gas price increased by 30% in 4Q2011 but PGS was not able to pass through the increase since ASPs were locked-in for one year since 2Q2011. As mentioned before, we expect earnings upside going forward starting in 2Q2012 since ASPs can now be revised monthly.

Hiện tượng này là các bạn Sọc chuẩn bị chui vào hòm rồi

SBT Bác nào quang phát một 153k thía ạ ???

Vãi nhái với MSN.[]

Tầm này thì không nên hô hào càng không nên vuốt đuôi vì cả nhà đều biết 2 sàn sẽ CE rồi. Em thì cho dù là dự cùng bác VNtienlen nhưng thú thực là cũng biết trước cỡ 1 tuần nên tích cực gop góp lương thảo đánh quả trước ngày lễ 1/5. Vấn đề là đến 16/5 thằng nào chạy được xa hơn và 23/5 ai nhảy tàu khéo hơn kìa.

Lên mịa nó rùi. Không đu kịp lại. Chốt lãi non cũng không hay lắm thật. may là còn nhiều tàu để đu. Hihi PHR nỗi đau lần 1 !

PGS bác KQ25 ra tin chậm quá. Tầm này khó vào rồi. Thôi đành vào SSI và VND cho full cổ.

Họ shot cũng là có lý do đấy, LN hợp nhất khá thấp 1xx tỏi. Nhưng sự lên xuống của SSI đâu chỉ phụ thuộc vào cái này

Mấy hôm rồi nhiều đội nhớn hỏi thăm thông tin SSI là biết có chiện roài, thêm vào nữa các thông tin vĩ mô lượn ra như bươm b.ướm, trong úp chén mà đi sọc là điều k nên chút nào

KSB chốt lãi luôn hay sao bác? Bác vui lòng cho e tư vấn ah! cám ơn bác![};-