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Vietnam Inflation May Quicken Until Mid-Year, Fund Manager Says

By Jason Folkmanis

April 16 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnam''s inflation, already the highest in more than a decade, may accelerate further until the middle of the year, an investment fund focused on the country said in a monthly report.

Prices in the Southeast Asian nation jumped 19.4 percent in March from a year earlier, the most since 1995, according to figures from the General Statistics Office in Hanoi. JPMorgan Chase & Co. warned this week that a higher inflation rate may erode Vietnam''s export competitiveness.

Inflation in Vietnam has been driven by global food and oil prices, and by a surge in domestic credit, DWS Vietnam Fund Ltd. said in a note to investors sent yesterday. While government policy in 2008 has focused on slowing inflation, the impact of monetary tightening often takes six months to be felt, said DWS Vietnam Fund, which is managed by a Deutsche Bank AG unit.

``We should begin to see the effects of the State Bank of Vietnam''s policy initiatives in the middle of this year,'''' DWS Vietnam Fund said. ``Up to that point, we can expect to see the upward trend in the inflation figures.''''

The Asian Development Bank doesn''t expect to see a decline from current levels of inflation until at least July and expects the year-on-year rate to exceed 10 percent until the middle of next year, according to a chart presented by the lender last week at a conference in Ho Chi Minh City.

Credit Growth

Inflation in Vietnam was driven in part by credit growth that exceeded 50 percent last year, according to the ADB''s Vietnam Country Director Ayumi Konishi. A surge in foreign investment, limited exchange-rate flexibility, an expansionary fiscal policy, inefficient public projects, and rising global commodity prices were also factors, according to the ADB.

``Whatever the government does at this point, the year-on- year figure at the end of December will remain rather high,'''' Konishi told investors at the Ho Chi Minh City conference.

Vietnam''s efforts to slow inflation have hampered its ability to boost the country''s stock markets, DWS Vietnam Fund said. The Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange''s VN Index declined today for a third straight trading day, closing at the lowest level in almost two weeks and bringing its loss for the year to 43 percent.

Vietnam''s government has used restrictions on trading bands and given State Capital Investment Corp. a mandate to buy shares as tools to try to boost the nation''s stock markets, DWS Vietnam Fund said.

``Other monetary-policy measures are currently being directed at inflation,'''' the fund said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Folkmanis in Ho Chi Minh City at folkmanis@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: April 16, 2008 04:38 EDT