Tin kinh hoàng về thị trường MỸ!S&P 500

Tin kinh hoàng về thị trường MỸ!S&P 500

Chỉ số S&P 500 mới là thước đo chính cho nền KT U.S
?~Recession Cross?T May Lift S&P 500 to 1,065: Technical Analysis
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By Lu Wang

June 26 (Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor?Ts 500 Index formed a ?ogolden cross? this week, a sign that the U.S. stock benchmark may rally another 19 percent, Bank of America Corp. said, citing the stock market?Ts performance in past recessions.

The 50-day moving average for the S&P 500 on June 23 topped the average price for the prior 200 days for the first time since December 2007. A 50-day average moving higher than a 200- day average is called a ?ogolden cross? and considered a bullish signal by technical analysts, who study price charts to predict market moves.

Mary Ann Bartels, an analyst with Bank of America, said ?ogolden cross? signals during economic recessions tend to herald rallies that double the average gain following all such bullish signals.

When associated with recessions, ?othe golden cross is a strong signal that suggests significant upside potential,? Bartels wrote in a note to clients yesterday.

Since 1928, the S&P 500 has generated 15 ?ogolden cross? signals during recessions and these signals, on average, led to a 19 percent gain in the following 12 months, according to Bank of America. The current recession began in December 2007. Bartels predicted the benchmark, after generating the bullish signal, may climb the same amount to 1,065 over the next year. That would extend the S&P 500?Ts gain from a 12-year low to 57 percent.

The index had produced a total of 41 ?ogolden cross? signals in the past 80 years. On these occasions, the gauge?Ts average 12-month gain was 9.3 percent, Bartels said.

The S&P 500 has surged 35 percent since a March low as economic reports suggested the worst recession since World War II may be easing.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lu Wang in New York at lwang8@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: June 26, 2009 12:08 EDT