Tin nóng Reuters: Bộ trưởng Bộ Công thương Vũ Huy Hoàng: lạm phát năm nay ở mức dưới 7% là hoàn toàn

Tin nóng Reuters: Thứ trưởng Bộ Công thương Vũ Huy Hoàng: lạm phát năm nay ở mức dưới 7% là hoàn toàn khả thi

Các bác chú ý phần bôi xanh và đỏ nhé! Tại sao chúng nó vẫn khăng định CPI tháng 9 vẫn chỉ trong khoảng 0,3-0,4% nhỉ??? Toàn dẫn lời từ các Bộ mới kinh chứ



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Rate cuts difficult despite soft inflation

http://www.vietfinancenews.com/2010/09/rate-cuts-difficult-despite-soft.html

September 20, 2010

VietFinanceNews.com - Inflationary pressures are likely to stay relatively subdued in September before a seasonal pick-up in the last quarter, but that doesn't mean banks will find it any easier to cut double-digit interest rates.



The government statistics office is expected to release its estimate for September's consumer prices this week, following five months of deceleration in the annual inflation rate.


"Inflation is unlikely to increase sharply in September despite some factors likely to exert upward pressure on the index," said VinaSecurities, quoting a Ministry of Industry and Trade forecast that September inflation would rise by 0.3-0.4 percent from August.


Earlier this month, Minister of Industry and Trade Vu Huy Hoang said that keeping annual inflation below 7 percent this year was "fully feasible". The government's official target is 8 percent.


Banks in Vietnam have less than two weeks to go to meet an end-September deadline to lower dong deposit rates to 10 percent and lending rates to 12 percent as part of a commitment to the Vietnam Banks Association to comply with a government request to support economic growth.


Lenders offered dong deposit rates at 11-11.2 percent while loan rates ranged from 13 percent to 15.5 percent, the central bank said in a report for the week to Sept. 9.


"It is not feasible to keep the inflation rate below 7 percent this year, given that in the last quarter, as seen every year, prices go up at a faster pace than in previous months," said Vu Dinh Anh, deputy director of the Finance Ministry's Price and Market Research Institute.


"I think the annual rate will be around 8 percent."


Still, annual inflation of around 8 percent would give banks a 200 basis point spread on deposits, which Tran Hai Yen, an economist at Bao Viet Securities Company, said would be acceptable to depositors.


The problem now, however, was that regular central bank open market operations at favourable rates were not spurring lending.


Most of the cash was going to a handful of big banks that were investing it in government bonds and then using those bonds as collateral to take out more loans from the central bank.


"The cash flow, therefore, circulates between the central bank and the major lenders, and little of it comes to businesses", she said.


Banks face other problems in cutting rates, related to their need to meet higher capital adequacy requirements from Oct. 1.


Since they are not able to raise dong rates to attract more deposits, they have been trying to attract more dollar and gold deposits. But that may ultimately put upward pressure on dong rates if depositors start pulling out and need to be lured back.


Consequently, Yen said, it seemed the central bank's goals of supporting economic growth by lowering interest rates while enhancing the safety of the banking system were in conflict. (Reuters)