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Comments this weekend by the SBV suggest that the central bank really isn’t keen to give in to pressure groups trying to delay the implementation of Circular 13 which would force banks to increase their CAR from 8% to 9%. Comments actually pointed to even tighter monetary policy for 2011.

We hear that several securities companies still have the intention to go ahead with margin calls even thought the market has risen last Friday. That being said, I have doubt over the strength of the calls and believe that if markets stabilize at this level, or even better, continue to rise, as they were at the time of writing, we may well avoid most of the calls the securities companies are planning to do.

Hard to say if markets are currently rallying because the bottom fishing on Friday quickly became a mini-rally extending into today, and whether the news that Circular 13 isn’t delayed will kick in and when. Then again, I still think that the real impact of Circular 13 isn’t so great that we should be worried (but whether the market believe that is another story), and margin calls, while happening, probably won’t be as strong as previously thought, at least, as long as markets don’t fall too much. In conclusion, I’m rather optimistic and from a technical standpoint, would see confirmation of the trend on day 3, i.e. tomorrow Tuesday, but optimists might want to jump in today.

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