Trở về " Eden " , bình loạn BMC liệu có lấy lại những gì đã mất ???

Hihi, lúc post mấy câu đấy là chị nghĩ đến em chước tiên đấy vì biết ông em mình lăm lăm BMC chờ xả

Đề nghị bà con cảnh giác, trong lúc sàn giảm mạnh mà nó tăng liên tục là BBs muốn gài bẫy NBs xả hàng vào đầu, không nên mua bình quân giá giảm, tốt nhất là bán hết đi, kể cả lỗ tí, chuyển em khác chỉ số đang đẹp cho đỡ bị phạt vì đụng trái cấm.

Oái Oái , hóa ra có nhiều bác muốn trở về Eden quá nhỉ ???

Vni hiện tại mọi người biết rõ roài E cũng chả bình lựng nữa cho thêm rầu , E xem cả đống Chart thấy có bé này Quốc sắc thiên hương đó ( Quyên cô nương không biết có nổi xung không , hì hì ) , nên mới đem ra mời các bác bình lựng cho xôm trò , nếu mọi người bảo E bi-a pi iếc gì đó E cũng đành chịu thoai .

Dưng mà quả thật em nó xinh wá , mà E lại háo ...

Như bác Việt Hà có thú tội trước bình minh , và 1 số bác khác có khi đang đi quá xa bờ roài , giấc mộng trở về Eden nghe chừng còn xa phết ( không ngờ tên Tô píc của E lại trùng với tâm trạng nhiều bác ) , nhưng nhắc lại chuyện cũ 1 chút :

- Các bác không thấy sau khi BMC ở đỉnh , Chart có mô hình 2 đỉnh rõ như ban ngày thía kia thì việc nó giảm 2 chục phiên cũng đâu có gì là lạ , nhưng hoàn cảnh bi giờ có khác roài :

- Nếu phóng to cái Chart ra 1 chút thì nó lại hoàn thành xong cái mô hình 2 đáy cách đây mấy bữa ( tuy thời gian tạo mô hình này quá siêu tốc nhưng E cứ giả vờ nhắm mắt nói bừa nhé ) và Price đã breakout cái vòng cổ mấy bữa trước và đang thẳng tiến lên .

- Lấy giá ngày hôm nay so với đỉnh cũ ( Chart của E là đã điều chỉnh giá sau chia tách rồi ) thì cần phải tăng khoảng 150% nữa cơ đấy ( Xa wá nhỉ ??? )

- Thôi thì E mượn tạm câu nói của anh Trương Gia Bình : " Ai mà trả lời được câu hỏi này thì giàu lắm đấy " , thật là 1 câu nói bất hủ và hợp với suy nghĩ của E lúc này .

" Trà dư tửu hậu " hầu chuyện các bác chút , lát E về nhà minh họa lại cái Chart cho rõ hơn , lại :

Wellcome các bác






Được vnindexstock sửa chữa / chuyển vào 20:26 ngày 13/08/2007

Vâng đây ạ :
 

 
 Ở vòng tròn to : Sau khi đường giá down xuống dưới đường fibo 61,8 % ( neckline ) thì cái double top đã rõ nét quá rồi , việc nó down sâu đâu có gì là lạ :
 
Double Top (Reversal)

The double top is a major reversal pattern that forms after an extended uptrend. As its name implies, the pattern is made up of two consecutive peaks that are roughly equal, with a moderate trough in-between.

Although there can be variations, the classic double top marks at least an intermediate change, if not long-term change, in trend from bullish to bearish. Many potential double tops can form along the way up, but until key support is broken, a reversal cannot be confirmed. To help clarify, we will look at the key points in the formation and then walk through an example.



Prior Trend: With any reversal pattern, there must be an existing trend to reverse. In the case of the double top, a significant uptrend of several months should be in place.


First Peak: The first peak should mark the highest point of the current trend. As such, the first peak is fairly normal and the uptrend is not in jeopardy (or in question) at this time.


Trough: After the first peak, a decline takes place that typically ranges from 10 to 20%. Volume on the decline from the first peak is usually inconsequential. The lows are sometimes rounded or drawn out a bit, which can be a sign of tepid demand.


Second Peak: The advance off the lows usually occurs with low volume and meets resistance from the previous high. Resistance from the previous high should be expected. Even after meeting resistance, only the possibility of a double top exists. The pattern still needs to be confirmed. The time period between peaks can vary from a few weeks to many months, with the norm being 1-3 months. While exact peaks are preferable, there is some leeway. Usually a peak within 3% of the previous high is adequate.


Decline from Peak: The subsequent decline from the second peak should witness an expansion in volume and/or an accelerated descent, perhaps marked with a gap or two. Such a decline shows that the forces of demand are weaker than supply and a support test is imminent.


Support Break: Even after trading down to support, the double top and trend reversal are still not complete. Breaking support from the lowest point between the peaks completes the double top. This too should occur with an increase in volume and/or an accelerated descent.


Support Turned Resistance: Broken support becomes potential resistance and there is sometimes a test of this newfound resistance level with a reaction rally. Such a test can offer a second chance to exit a position or initiate a short.


Price Target: The distance from support break to peak can be subtracted from the support break for a price target. This would infer that the bigger the formation is, the larger the potential decline.
While the double top formation may seem straightforward, technicians should take proper steps to avoid deceptive double tops. The peaks should be separated by about a month. If the peaks are too close, they could just represent normal resistance rather than a lasting change in the supply/demand picture. Ensure that the low between the peaks declines at least 10%. Declines less than 10% may not be indicative of a significant increase in selling pressure. After the decline, analyze the trough for clues on the strength of demand. If the trough drags on a bit and has trouble moving back up, demand could be drying up. When the security does advance, look for a contraction in volume as a further indication of weakening demand.
Perhaps the most important aspect of a double top is to avoid jumping the gun. Wait for support to be broken in a convincing manner, and usually with an expansion of volume. A price or time filter can be applied to differentiate between valid and false support breaks. A price filter might require a 3% support break before validation. A time filter might require the support break to hold for 3 days before considering it valid. The trend is in force until proven otherwise. This applies to the double top as well. Until support is broken in a convincing manner, the trend remains up.

The double top in Ford took about 5 months to form. Even after the support break, there was another test of newfound resistance almost 4 months later.



From a low near 10 in Mar-97, Ford advanced to 36 by Dec-98. The trend line extending up from Mar-97 is an internal trend line and Ford held above it until the break in May-99.


From the first peak, the stock declined around 15% to form the trough.


After reaching a low near 30 1/2 in early February, the trough formed over the next 2 months, and there wasn''t a rally until early April. This long-drawn-out low suggested tepid demand.


The decline from 36.80 occurred with two gaps down and increased volume. Furthermore, Chaikin Money Flow promptly moved below -10%. The speed with which money flows deteriorated indicated a serious increase in selling pressure.


In late May and early June, the stock traded for about 3 weeks at support from the previous low. During this time, money flows declined below -20%. Even though the situation looked ominous, the double formation would not be complete until support was broken.


Support was broken in early June when the stock fell below 28 1/2, which was more than 3% below support at 30 1/2. After this sharp drop, there was an equally sharp advance back above the newfound resistance level. While a test of broken support can be expected, it is usually not quite this early. The advance to 32 in late June may have triggered some unpleasant short covering for those who jumped in on the first support break. The stock fell to 25, and then began the retracement advance that would ultimately test support.

On the second chart, 30 3/4 marked the support turned resistance level, and 31 marked a 50% retracement of the decline from 36.80 to 25. Combined with the price action in early June and early July, a resistance zone could probably be established between 31 and 32. The stock subsequently formed a lower high at 30 in Jan-00, and declined to around 22 by mid-March.
 
Còn ở cái vòng tròn nhỏ , sau khi đường giá breakout cái neckline thì cái double bottom lại hoàn thiện , việc giá có Up 1 chút đến hôm nay chứ có thêm nữa cũng đâu có gì cá biệt :
 
Double Bottom (Reversal)
The double bottom is a major reversal pattern that forms after an extended downtrend. As its name implies, the pattern is made up of two consecutive troughs that are roughly equal, with a moderate peak in-between.

Although there can be variations, the classic double bottom usually marks an intermediate or long-term change in trend. Many potential double bottoms can form along the way down, but until key resistance is broken, a reversal cannot be confirmed. To help clarify, we will look at the key points in the formation and then walk through an example.




Prior Trend: With any reversal pattern, there must be an existing trend to reverse. In the case of the double bottom, a significant downtrend of several months should be in place.


First Trough: The first trough should mark the lowest point of the current trend. As such, the first trough is fairly normal in appearance and the downtrend remains firmly in place.


Peak: After the first trough, an advance takes place that typically ranges from 10 to 20%. Volume on the advance from the first trough is usually inconsequential, but an increase could signal early accumulation. The high of the peak is sometimes rounded or drawn out a bit from the hesitation to go back down. This hesitation indicates that demand is increasing, but still not strong enough for a breakout.


Second Trough: The decline off the reaction high usually occurs with low volume and meets support from the previous low. Support from the previous low should be expected. Even after establishing support, only the possibility of a double bottom exists, it still needs to be confirmed. The time period between troughs can vary from a few weeks to many months, with the norm being 1-3 months. While exact troughs are preferable, there is some room to maneuver and usually a trough within 3% of the previous is considered valid.


Advance from Trough: Volume is more important for the double bottom than the double top. There should clear evidence that volume and buying pressure are accelerating during the advance off of the second trough. An accelerated ascent, perhaps marked with a gap or two, also indicates a potential change in sentiment.


Resistance Break: Even after trading up to resistance, the double top and trend reversal are still not complete. Breaking resistance from the highest point between the troughs completes the double bottom. This too should occur with an increase in volume and/or an accelerated ascent.


Resistance Turned Support: Broken resistance becomes potential support and there is sometimes a test of this newfound support level with the first correction. Such a test can offer a second chance to close a short position or initiate a long.


Price Target: The distance from the resistance breakout to trough lows can be added on top of the resistance break to estimate a target. This would imply that the bigger the formation is, the larger the potential advance.
It is important to remember that the double bottom is an intermediate to long-term reversal pattern that will not form in a few days. Even though formation in a few weeks is possible, it is preferable to have at least 4 weeks between lows. Bottoms usually take longer than tops to form and patience can often be a virtue. Give the pattern time to develop and look for the proper clues. The advance off of the first trough should be 10-20%. The second trough should form a low within 3% of the previous low and volume on the ensuing advance should increase. Volume indicators such as Chaikin Money Flow, OBV and Accumulation/Distribution can be used to look for signs of buying pressure. Just as with the double top, it is paramount to wait for the resistance breakout. The formation is not complete until the previous reaction high is taken out.

After trending lower for almost a year, PFE formed a double bottom and broke resistance with an expansion in volume.



From a high near 50 in April-99, PFE declined to 30 in November-99, which was a new 52-week low.


The stock advanced over 20% off of its low and formed a reaction high around 37 1/2. Volume expanded and the 13-Jan advance (green arrow) occurred on the highest volume since 5-Nov.


After a short pullback, there was another attempt to break above resistance, but this failed. Even so, volume on advancing days was generally higher than on declining days. The ability of the stock to remain in the mid-thirties for an extended period of time indicated some strengthening in demand.


The decline from 37 1/2 back to 30 was sharp, but downside volume did not expand materially. There were two days when volume on a decline exceeded the 60-day SMA and Chaikin Money Flow dipped near -10% twice. However, money flows indicated accumulation throughout the decline by remaining mostly above zero with periodic movements above +10%.


The second trough formed with a low exactly equal to the previous low (30) and a little over 2 months separated the lows.


The advance off of the second low witnessed an accelerated move with an expansion of volume. After the second low at 30, 5 of the next 6 advancing days saw volume well above the 60-day SMA. Chaikin Money Flow, which never really weakened, moved above +20% within 6 days of the low.


Resistance at 37 1/2 was broken with a gap up on the open and another volume expansion. After running from 30 to 40 in a few weeks, the stock pulled back to the resistance break at 37 1/2, which now turned into support. There was a brief chance to get in on the pullback and the stock quickly advanced past 45.


 
 
 
 
 

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