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Vietnam upbeat on pangasius exports to US, China as trade war looms large


Vietnam’s pangasius industry is continuing to perform well this year, driven by rising demand from key markets – most prominently, China.

And its potential is even greater given the opportunities it sees as China and the United States continue to face off in an escalating trade war.

Pangasius is Vietnam’s second-biggest seafood export in terms of value, following shrimp. But the country’s dominance in production of the species makes pangasius the core issue of any strategic discussion in Vietnam’s seafood industry.

And the hot topic in the country these days is the escalating trade war between China and the U.S., which is being watched closely in the Southeast Asia nation.

“We have not been able to immediately assess all possible impacts from the trade war. But our initial thinking is that China and Vietnam are not direct competitors in exporting seafood to the U.S., as they import more than export,” Truong Dinh Hoe, general secretary of Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), told SeafoodSource on the sidelines of the Vietfish conference and expo in Ho Chi Minh City during 22 to 24 August.

The country is on track to get more than USD 2 billion (EUR 1.72 billion) from pangasius exports this year, Vietnamese Agriculture Minister Nguyen Xuan Cuong said in a statement on 21 August.

Even with shipments to the United States dropping after the U.S. imposed high antidumping rates in March 2018, Vietnam actually improved its year-over-year gains from pangasius exports by 19.3 percent in the first seven months of this year, with the total value of those shipments reaching USD 1.2 billion (EUR 1 billion)

In July, the U.S. overthrew China to once again become the biggest pangasius buyer, as it spent USD 58.5 million (EUR 50.4 million) on pangasius – higher than China’s USD 38.4 million (EUR 33.1 million), data from VASEP showed.

The value that Vietnam got from sales to the U.S. from January to July was USD 255.3 million (EUR 219.9 million), rising 15.6 percent from the same period in 2017.

For Vinh Hoan, the world’s biggest pangasius exporter, the trade war is of no current concern, at least as it impacts the company’s sales to the U.S.

“We have not seen any clear impacts from the trade war to our pangasius products in the U.S.,” a representative from Vinh Hoan told SeafoodSource during Vietfish. “It remains our largest market despite strict rules that we have to follow.”

Vinh Hoan is enjoying much lower antidumping duties for exports to the U.S. than most of its rivals and has long been the biggest pangasius supplier to the U.S. The company’s exports to the U.S. were worth USD 91.5 million (EUR 78.5 million) in the first half of 2018, up 44 percent year-on-year, according to the latest data from Vinh Hoan.

But long-term, Vinh Hoan sees more opportunites in China’s fast-growing market than in U.S., especially as the trade war escalates, the representative said. Prices of U.S. seafood products in China will rise due to higher tariffs. Pangasius is not an alternative to U.S. seafood products, but if prices for U.S. seafood get too high, then pangasius may become the choice of Chinese consumers who prefer paying less for a high-quality product, the Vinh Hoan representative said.

Last year, for the first time in history, China toppled the U.S. to become the biggest market for Vietnamese pangasius products, and China’s taste for pangasius is growing rapidly. In the first seven months of 2018, Vietnam shipped pangasius worth USD 289.8 million (EUR 249.4 million) to China, up 40.6 percent from a year earlier, according to VASEP.

Chinese love river fish and whole fish, so it is a good opportunity for Vietnam to market pangasius, which is farmed near rivers in Mekong Delta, in the most populous country in the world, Nguyen Tien Thong, a research associate with analytics firm Syntesa, told an industry conference in Vietfish.

But while Chinese consumers are willing to pay more for a product like Vietnam’s pangasius, which has been qualified in U.S. and European Union markets, Thong said despite several technical and commercial hurdles it is facing, Vietnam’s pangasius industry should always view the U.S. and the E.U. as its most important markets, as it will inspire the industry to push for innovations and increase production standards.

There’s another reason to prioritize the U.S. market: Buyers there pay much higher prices than other countries, a sales executive from a Vietnamese pangasius company said. While his firm has not been able to export pangasius to the U.S. due to the current high antidumping duties the U.S. imposed during the POR 13 [13th administrative review] earlier this year, the executive is hoping that the situation is temporary. Indeed, assessments under POR 14 are under way and many Vietnamese companies are hoping the duties will be low enough for them to return to the U.S., VASEP’s Hoe said.

And as the trade war continues, Vietnam’s pangasius may hit a soft spot in the U.S. market. China sells catfish to the U.S., though it has a different market positioning than pangasius, and Chinese tilapia has seen its demand falling in the U.S. over the past two years. As a result, many in Vietnam’s pangasius industry believe pangasius can nab a much firmer position in the U.S. market, the Vinh Hoan representative added.

By Toan Dao -SeafoodSource

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Vietnam pangasius prices rising as fingerling issues persist
The market price for Vietnamese pangasius on the European market may be relatively stable for now, but sources note rising ex-farm prices and a lack of quality fingerlings for stocking mean the short and long-term future is unclear.
Early in September prices are around $2.80 per kilogram freight-on-board for standard, treated fillets delivered to the EU, one Vietnam packer told Undercurrent News. This equates to around $3.20 CIF (cost, insurance and freight).
Premium, chemical-free product, 100% white meat, is in high demand and going at high prices, he added; $4.20-$4.55/kg.
A second source, also based in Vietnam, put prices to Europe at $2.25-$2.50 for individually quick-frozen fillets.
“Prices are on the rise again, big time. Farm-gate prices were at VND 24,000/kg, it's back at VND 31,000/kg now, two weeks later,” he said, on Sept. 7.

“The market price is less clear though; it looks a bit cheaper than the past couple of months,” he added.
Undercurrent's prices portal shows that through spring 2018 prices surged, from a level already at a five-year high.

Markets are seeing stable demand, both sources said; “China's still strong, Europe is still where it is, and the US is dominated by a few players,” said the first source.

The second source agreed, warning a dependence on the Chinese market was, in his view, risky. “If China gets picky about something, or decides it wants to pay less, then they just stop buying and prices will dive.”

“25% of the pangasius from Vietnam is going to China now, and that's only the official numbers, and does not account for border trade.”

Meanwhile Don Kelley -- vice president of US importer Western Edge Seafood – told Undercurrent pangasius costs from Vietnam had been stable for two months or so.

“USA price has also been stable, but with some 'give' on the 7-9 size. Vietnam shipped more of this size in August than the other sizes. 3-5 and 5-7 are still slow to leave Vietnam.”

Every week his firm continues to get inquiries from importers and continues to make inquiries, and it has made some spot purchases itself, he said. “Companies seem to be trying to balance sizes within their programs. Still, no one is getting everything they want when they want it from Vietnam.”

Prices for pangasius into the US were put at $3.10-$3.20 per pound by various other sources.

Fingerling fears
Undercurrent's first source, an executive with a Vietnamese packer, warned that an expected improvement in fingerling availability for grow out hasn't actually come to pass.

“There's still probably not enough in the market, I would say. The weather's been bad for fry, and there's been a lot of fingerling mortality too when they're still under 20 grams.”

The lack of availability is affecting prices now, he confirmed. “A lot of people without strong relationships, or ownership in hatcheries, are having trouble getting fingerlings, then the ones they do get are C quality, rather than B or A. So a good number die.”

Not only is there a lack of availability on grown fish now, but the ongoing lack of fingerings is going to impact supply in six months' time, he said – echoing comments made by the CEO of Vietnam's largest pangasius exporter, Vinh Hoan, at August's Vietfish expo.

“We [the Vietnamese industry] have horrendous mortalities,” continued the source. “All the fish that go in at 20g, 40% are dead before harvest. So at 0-20g stages, that's the problem. We could sell more if we had more.”

The second unnamed source also agreed that the current unit price of fingerlings would “surely have an impact on the price of the final product”, though the “bigger headache” for processors is knowing whether the fingerling supply is sufficient for them to ensure commercial-sized fish six months later.

Vinh Hoan's CEO, Vi Tam, and the first source mentioned above both said the current state of Vietnam's fingerling production needs investment and work as a priority.

All sources agreed that solutions are on the horizon, and at Vietfish Undercurrent spoke with R&D and consultancy firm Fresh Studio, which is working with Danish recirculating aquaculture system supplier Alpha Aqua to help bring the technology to Vietnam for precisely this reason.

By Neil Ramsden- undercurrentnews

Mệt nhỉ, cụ nào đã bán thì mua vào bây giờ thì run mà không mua thì tiếc, còn tiếc dài lắm các cụ

Export value (excl. VDTG) broke its own record in July, reaching USD 41m in August, an 85% yoy surge. Volume picked up by 27% thanks to the abundant supply during harvesting season, and average selling price remained at high level. 287 283 149 120 57 45 36 35 31 27 The US China EU ASEAN Mexico Brazil UAE Colombia Canada Hong Kong Top 10 exporting markets of Vietnam pangasius (USDm), Jan-Aug 15 2018 Source: VASEP Total export value (Jan - Aug 15 2018): USD 1,298m Of all products, pangasius fillet nearly doubled in export value. Other products also saw strong growth, such as fish meal and fish oil (73%), collagen and gelatin (174%).

New high record

Chi tiết:
http://vinhhoan.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Aug-IR-news.pdf