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HSBC Says Rate Outlook, Politics to Weigh on Malaysian Bonds

By David Yong

Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Malaysia''s government bonds may hand investors a quarterly loss on speculation the central bank will increase interest-rates and because of political turmoil in the country, according to HSBC Holdings Plc.

An expanding Malaysian economy and inflation peaking only in the first half of 2009 won''t prevent Bank Negara Malaysia from raising borrowing costs this year, Virgil Esguerra, a Hong Kong- based fixed-income strategist at Europe''s largest bank, said in an interview today. Heightened political risk may also spark bond redemptions by overseas investors, he said.

Malaysia''s growth remains resilient at 6.7 percent in the second quarter, versus 7.1 percent in the first, HSBC forecast. A widening budget deficit in 2008, disclosed by Second Finance Minister Nor Mohamed Yakcop on Aug. 4, may require higher borrowing, boosting debt supply, Esguerra said.

``Malaysian rates still pose upside risks,'''' Esguerra said. There''s more risk than reward in Malaysian bonds and foreign investors are still ``overbought.''''

HSBC upgraded its recommendation on Vietnam''s government bonds to `overweight'' from `market-weight.''

The central bank in Malaysia on July 25 kept its overnight policy rate at 3.5 percent, unchanged in 18 straight meetings since April 2006, citing risk to growth. Consumer prices in the $147 billion economy, Southeast Asia''s third-largest, rose 7.7 percent in June, the most since January 1982.

Yield Peak

An index of Malaysian government bonds rose 0.8 percent in July, after losses in April through June, the worst quarter since at least 2001, according to local-currency debt indexes compiled by HSBC.

``We view the rally in July as an opportunity to sell,'''' Esguerra said. Yields may peak by September, he said. ``Further clarity remains on the fiscal and bond supply front.''''

The yield on the three-year 3.833 percent Malaysian government bond maturing in September 2011 was 3.87 percent as of 1 p.m. in Kuala Lumpur, according to Bursa Malaysia Bhd.''s electronic bond exchange. The rate may reach 4.2 percent next month, Esguerra forecasts.

Yields on five-year notes may climb to 4.4 percent and the 10-year rate to 5 percent, he predicted. The five-year maturity last yielded 4.04 percent and the 10-year 4.74 percent.

The risk of bond redemptions by offshore investors remains high as opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim faces a trial on sodomy allegations on Sept. 10 and kept his Sept. 16 deadline for toppling the ruling government, Esguerra said.

Vietnam Attractive

Global funds pared their holdings of government and central bank debt by 11 percent to 112.5 billion ringgit ($33.9 billion) in May from an all-time high in April, according to data published by Bank Negara Malaysia. Investors turned net sellers for the first time since August 2007.

Vietnam bonds should outperform as offshore demand increases, because yields are attractive and rising onshore bank liquidity could fuel demand, HSBC said in a research note on Aug. 7.

The government on Aug. 5 auctioned 540 billion dong ($32.8 million) of two-year notes and 660 billion dong of three-year bonds, all taken up by foreigners, according to HSBC.

Vietnam''s bank deposits grew 14 percent in the first half of this year, compared with only 5 percent during the first five months, HSBC said, while bank lending has come to a standstill.

Surplus onshore liquidity is increasingly being channeled into government bonds because local banks are avoiding counter- party risk and the lending business remains unprofitable, the bank said in the report.

HSBC also likes Singapore''s 15- and 20-year bonds as yields are attractive, it said. Bond valuations in Indonesia are looking stretched and the market is being complacent on inflation risks, the bank said.