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Dong A Securities'' Wolfe Says Central Bank Shows Its Confidence

By Van Nguyen

June 27 (Bloomberg) -- Lawrence Wolfe, director of business development of Ho Chi Minh City-based Dong A Securities Co., comments on the Vietnam central bank''s doubling the daily trading limit to 2 percent. Wolfe made the comment via e-mail.

Vietnam''s inflation rate accelerated to 26.8 percent in June from the same month a year earlier, the highest in 16 years, the General Statistics Office in Hanoi reported.

``The State Bank of Vietnam''s widening of the trading band is to narrow the gap between the open market rate and the official ceiling rate. When the gap is so big, it is very difficult for banks to trade.

``It is another step in trying to stabilize the market gradually rather than allow a big devaluation. It also indicates that the central bank is confident that it can defend the dong if necessary.''''

On inflation:

``Actually the June inflation on a month-to-month basis was only around 2 percent which is a substantial improvement versus May, when inflation grew by about 4 percent.

``This shows that the government''s policies are beginning to have a positive effect. It also demonstrates that inflation is beginning to slow down and brings the expectation of further slowing in the months ahead.

``Investor sentiment will certainly revive once it becomes clear that consumer prices have peaked and then begin to decline. The government must continue with its current course of action and we will see more positive developments in the coming months.''''

To contact the reporter on this story: Van Nguyen in Ho Chi Minh City at vnguyen23@bloomberg.net.

Vietnam Inflation Likely to Slow, JPMorgan, HSBC Say (Update1)

By Jason Folkmanis

June 27 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnamese inflation is likely to ease, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and HSBC Holdings Plc said, as food prices moderate and economic growth slows.

The annual inflation rate in Vietnam jumped to 26.8 percent in June, according to government figures released yesterday, up from 25.2 percent in May. The figure has not declined since January 2007. Prices rose 2.1 percent in June from the previous month after increasing 3.9 percent in May from April.

``The monthly rise was more subdued than the previous month, largely reflecting lower rice prices,'''' Matthew Hildebrandt, an economist at JPMorgan Chase in Singapore, said in a note dated yesterday. ``Month-on-month increases in inflation should be more moderate, paving the way for stabilization and then modest reduction in over-year-ago inflation later this year.''''

The monthly inflation figure should be lower in July than in June, wrote Pieter van der Schaft, head of Asian rates strategy at HSBC in Hong Kong.

``We expect a further improvement in headline inflation, potentially to a flat month-on-month reading,'''' wrote van der Schaft, in a report dated today. There are ``clear signs of a slowdown in headline inflation,'''' according to HSBC.

The inflation rate will decline to below 10 percent by 2010, Prime Minister *************** said in an interview this week. Slower inflation as well as evidence of a declining trend in Vietnam''s trade deficit may ease investor concerns about an overheating economy, Standard & Poor''s said last week.

Rice Harvest

Vietnam''s trade gap expanded at a slower rate through June than through May, according to figures released yesterday by the General Statistics Office in Hanoi. The trade deficit will probably show more improvement in July, according to van der Schaft of HSBC, who cited a lifting of restrictions on rice exports amid expectations of a possible record harvest.

Vietnamese rice exports rose 6 percent by volume through June to 2.51 million tons, and surged 99 percent by value to $1.51 billion, according to government figures released yesterday.

The June economic figures were ``modestly positive,'''' and sentiment toward Vietnamese markets was also buoyed by the government''s decision yesterday to widen the daily trading band for the nation''s currency to 2 percent on either side of a daily reference rate, said Hildebrandt in his note.

The widening of the dong band ``suggests increased confidence by the authorities in their official rate,'''' Hildebrandt wrote.

The so-called black-market exchange rate of the dong was about 17,000 per dollar as of yesterday afternoon, down from as high as 19,000 dong previously, the Vietnam News reported today.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Folkmanis in Hanoi at folkmanis@bloomberg.net