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Trong báo cáo mới ra ngày hôm nay 30/05/2008, JP Morgan đã có những đánh giá lạc quan hơn về nền kinh tế Việt Nam.

Được sirifin sửa chữa / chuyển vào 21:19 ngày 30/05/2008

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ỉỉơ^ỉạ

Sao baèc laèÊi cho 'oaèÊn kinh Koran giaè?ng giaè?i vêè? ĐaèÊo 'ặèc cho cĂc con chiên cỏằĐa 'ỏƠng tiên tri Muhammad viỏt theo lỏằi dỏĂy cỏằĐa ThĂnh Allah vào 'Ây thỏ

ĐoỏĂn này 'Ănh giĂ kinh tỏ Viỏằ?t Nam bi quan quĂ, lỏĂi còn Ăm chỏằ? VN sỏẵ phỏÊi nhỏằ 'ỏn sỏằ hỏằ- trỏằÊ cỏằĐa Binladen hòng vỏằc dỏưy nỏằn KT

Chỏằ< này 'fng nhỏĐm rỏằ"i, 'Ây là sĂch dỏĂy làm tơnh cỏằĐa bỏằn Oman mà.

Lại thêm 1 con trym lợn đến từ Singapore (Ngân hàng Hoa kiều), nó bảo đồng VN sẽ hạ giá nhanh 30%, do thâm hụt thương mại (Nguồn: Bloomberg). Quả này bọn tài phiệt thế giới quyết tâm dìm VND rồi

Vietnam''''''''s Dong May Slump 30% in 12 Months on Deficit, OCBC Says

By Patricia Lui

June 2 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnam''''''''s dong may slump as much as 30 percent in a year and investors should sell the currency using 12-month offshore forward contracts, according to Oversea- Chinese Banking Corp.

The dong is set to extend losses from last week''''''''s nine- month low on accelerating inflation and a widening trade deficit, said Emmanuel Ng, OCBC''''''''s Singapore-based currency strategist. Fitch Ratings last week cut Vietnam''''''''s debt-rating outlook to negative and Morgan Stanley said the nation is headed for a ``currency crisis,'''''''''''''''' similar to that of Thailand''''''''s baht in 1997.

``We extrapolated the 1997 Thai baht scenario on a six-to- 12 month horizon and if the dong was granted more freedom, it could fall like the baht,'''''''''''''''' Ng said in an interview today. ``The stress on the dong may continue to build on the back of runaway inflation, the widening trade deficit and tight liquidity in the banking sector.''''''''''''''''

The dong has dropped 1.5 percent this year against the dollar and traded at 16,255 as of 1:05 p.m. in Hanoi, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Twelve-month offshore non-deliverable forward contracts indicate the U.S. dollar will buy 21,930 dong, a 26 percent slump from today''''''''s spot rate. Such contracts, settled in dollars, are used by traders to bet on currencies they can''''''''t freely convert.

Deficit, Inflation

The dong completed a fourth weekly loss as crude oil prices climbed to an all-time high last month, increasing import costs and demand for dollars. The trade deficit widened to $14.42 billion in the five months through May from $4.25 billion a year earlier. Consumer prices rose 25.2 percent last month, the most since at least 1992.

The benchmark stock index is the world''''''''s worst performer this year, dropping 56 percent.

The State Bank of Vietnam, the nation''''''''s central bank, allows the dong to trade 1 percent on either side of a reference rate it sets every day. Money changers exchanged the dollar for 17,200 dong in Hanoi on May 30, according to Phung Trung Kien, the Hanoi-based investment specialist at the securities unit of Vietnam Joint-Stock Commercial Bank for Private Enterprises, compared with today''''''''s reference rate of 16,094.

``The implied valuations for the dong are very much at odds with what they are trying to preach this year, which is a 2 percent decline at most,'''''''''''''''' OCBC''''''''s Ng said. ``Something has to give, and it''''''''s not going to be the trade account.''''''''''''''''

Ng said that taking a position on the dong may be difficult for foreign investors due to the country''''''''s capital controls and the lack of a developed offshore market. Prices are available in the longer tenors, he said, ``provided you can find a counterparty.''''''''''''''''



Được sirifin sửa chữa / chuyển vào 15:18 ngày 02/06/2008

Không biết thì đừng có nói nhiều không người ta lại bảo là n.g.u
OCBC mà lại bảo của TQ thì đúng là chả thèm nói. Trình còi quá

Sorry, Ngân hàng Hoa Kiều Singapore, em dịch nhầm, hế hế

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Ltd
Head Office
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Singapore 049513
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