Báo cáo nước ngoài - Cập nhật và bình luận (HOT)!

Goldman Sachs tương đối lạc quan về Việt Nam trong báo cáo trước đây mà giờ cũng nhận định thế này thì bó tay rồi

Vietnamese May Shun Dong Assets, Freezing Economy, Goldman Says

By Beth Thomas

June 3 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnamese may shun domestic assets and buy dollars and gold, freezing up the domestic economy on concern that the government won''''t be able to rein in spiraling inflation, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Policy makers plan to keep the benchmark interest rate at 12 percent this month after two increases this year, the central bank said in a statement posted on its Web site late yesterday. The government is trying to slow inflation from 25.2 percent, the fastest since at least 1992.

``It is crucial for the Vietnamese government to control inflation and engineer a soft landing for the economy,'''''''' Helen Qiao, an analyst at Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong, said in research published today. ``Vietnam would be subject to great risk if liquidity flees into U.S. dollars and gold, which would freeze up the domestic economy.''''''''

Soaring food and energy prices more than tripled the Southeast Asian nation''''s inflation from a year earlier in May. Morgan Stanley wrote in a report last week that Vietnam may be headed for a currency crisis similar to Thailand''''s in 1997, when the baht lost more than 50 percent of its value.

New York-based Goldman, the biggest U.S. securities firm, said in a report published on April 17 that accelerating inflation poses a threat to Vietnam''''s economic growth.

``Our current assessment is that the likelihood of the central bank being forced into taking an abrupt and sharp nominal devaluation in the near term remains small,'''''''' Qiao said. ``However, we believe it has become more likely for the monetary authority to consider the option of an accelerated pace of devaluation against the dollar, to prevent the dong from being excessively overvalued.''''''''

Buying Dollars

The increase in inflation from 21.4 percent in April may have prompted people to buy dollars last week, driving the free- market value of the dong lower, State Bank of Vietnam Governor Nguyen Van Giau said May 30.

The currency, which the government controls by setting a daily trading band, was at 16,257.50 against the dollar as of 10:30 a.m. in Hanoi. The dong has dropped 0.8 percent in the past three weeks. Money changers are buying dollars at 17,350 dong, according to state-run Vietnam Posts & Telecommunications.

Vietnam''''s benchmark stock index has tumbled 57 percent this year and the trade deficit has tripled. Fitch Ratings last week cut its outlook on Vietnam''''s debt to negative from stable because of a slow government response to fighting inflation.

Prime Minister *************** also needs to extend price controls and tighten restrictions on bank lending to slow inflation, Goldman said.

The Finance Ministry has proposed delaying increases in the prices of utilities and electricity, fuel, water, cement, coal, and steel by a month until July 1 to avoid quickening inflation further, Thoi Bao Kinh Te reported on May 20.