Thặng dư thương mại Việt Nam với Hoa Kỳ tăng 45%

BlackHoleVN · 25/05/2019, 11:36

Vietnamese exports to the US are surging as the south-east Asian country emerges as potentially the biggest winner from President Donald Trump’s trade war with China.

The nominally communist country saw its trade surplus with the US jump 45.5 per cent year-on-year to $13.5bn in the first quarter of 2019.

The rise was particularly sharp for exports of goods covered by President Trump’s tariff regime, making it easier for Vietnamese manufacturers to undercut their Chinese rivals, according to analysis of data from the US International Trade Commission,

The analysis comes as stake purchases and pledges for new foreign direct investment rose 81 per cent to $14.6bn in the calendar year to April 20, compared with the same period in 2018, according to Vietnam’s ministry of planning and investment.

US imports of Chinese goods already covered by tariffs fell 27.6 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter, compared to an 8.9 per cent decline for unaffected goods, according to analysis of the top 250 imported products by Thomas Costerg, senior economist at Pictet Wealth Management.

In contrast, US imports of Vietnamese goods in the tariffed categories jumped 34 per cent year-on-year over the same period, well ahead of the 11 per cent rise for non-tariffed goods (stripping out mobile phones, exports of which have been driven by Samsung making Vietnam its global manufacturing hub, distorting the overall data), as shown in the first chart.

“You have a complete mirror image in terms of US imports. There has been an acceleration of the goods that are hit by tariffs in Vietnamese exports,” said Mr Costerg.

“The Vietnamese exports are taking up the baton and they have done that quite quickly, or there has been some rerouting through Vietnam of Chinese goods. For a small country like that it’s pretty impressive,” he added.

Analysis of the US ITC data shows Vietnamese exports of modems to the US surged 780 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019, with sales of lead acid storage batteries up 608 per cent, hearing aids up 311 per cent, washing machines up 256 per cent and plastic blinds up 216 per cent.

Other product lines covered by Mr Trump’s China tariffs include computers, where Vietnam has raised its US-bound exports by 85 per cent, headphones and earphones, where the increase has been 79 per cent, and wooden furniture, which has witnessed a 26 per cent rise, as well as various items of clothing and footwear.

Vietnam’s $13.5bn Q1 goods trade surplus with the US puts it on course to comfortably outstrip last year’s record 12-month tally of $39.5bn.

It now has the fifth-largest surplus with the US, behind China (whose surplus fell 12.2 per cent year-on-year to $80bn in the first quarter), Mexico, Japan and Germany, whose surplus also fell, as depicted in the second chart.

Several other Asian states have also seen big rises in their surpluses with the US, with South Korea’s up 71 per cent to $6.4bn in the first three months of 2019, that of Taiwan up 29 per cent to $5.2bn, Bangladesh up 23 per cent to $1.4bn, Cambodia up 24 per cent to $998m and that of Pakistan up a striking 403 per cent to $211m, although the latter is largely a reflection of an unusually small surplus in Q1 2018.

Analysis by Standard Chartered of the second round of Mr Trump’s tariffs, which involved imposing a 10 per cent tariff on $200bn of Chinese exports in September 2018, also points to other Asian countries reaping the benefits, alongside Mexico.

It found that US imports of the 5,745 products affected fell 3 per cent year-on-year in the period between October 2018 and February 2019, with those from China falling 16 per cent.

More detailed analysis of the five broad product categories that account for 71 per cent of the affected imports shows China’s market share fell by 4.5 percentage points (based on a comparison with the average for the same period over the previous three years), with that of Mexico rising by 1.5 points, followed by gains for South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines and Vietnam, illustrated in the final chart.

The broader picture is that many of these Asian nations were already seeing rapid growth in their manufacturing capacity as rising wages and labour shortages in China have encouraged companies to seek out cheaper workers elsewhere.

“Companies suffering from rising Chinese wage costs have already been relocating to neighbouring countries, with many foreign manufacturers among them,” said Timme Spakman, economist at ING, the Dutch asset manager.
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Nguồn :https://www.ft.com/content/31f2a870-7bb1-11e9-81d2-f785092ab560

Thấy có tin tốt cho Việt Nam trên "FINANCIAL TIMES" post lên cho ACE tham khảo.

thatnhudem · 25/05/2019, 16:09

Mẽo bị thâm hụt với Việt lớn quá là hơi nguy đấy.

BlackHoleVN · 25/05/2019, 16:15

thatnhudem đã viết: ↑

Mẽo bị thâm hụt với Việt lớn quá là hơi nguy đấy.
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Từng đấy là muỗi thôi bác, cứ phải nuôi béo đã chứ .

thatnhudem · 25/05/2019, 16:19

BlackHoleVN đã viết: ↑

Từng đấy là muỗi thôi bác, cứ phải nuôi béo đã chứ .
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Cứ mưa lúc nào mát mặt lúc ấy cái đã bác nhỉ.

BlackHoleVN · 25/05/2019, 16:26

huyhoanginv đã viết: ↑

Tốt rồi, tin vui !!

Vậy thâm hụt thương mại - 700tr USD thì tới từ đâu các bác nhỉ? Chắc chủ đạo tới từ anh láng giềng...

https://tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/indicators
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Tháng 4, Việt Nam ước tính nhập siêu 700 triệu USD. Tính chung 4 tháng năm 2019, cán cân thương mại tiếp tục xuất siêu 711 triệu USD (cùng kỳ năm trước xuất siêu 3,7 tỷ USD), trong đó khu vực kinh tế trong nước nhập siêu 9,46 tỷ USD; khu vực có vốn đầu tư nước ngoài (kể cả dầu thô) xuất siêu 10,17 tỷ USD.
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Thực dương mà.

bullist · 25/05/2019, 16:38

Nói bé thôi k anh Trump nghe thấy

Cuonghandy · 25/05/2019, 18:12

TRUMP sắp áp thuế

PhongVanCK · 25/05/2019, 18:14

huyhoanginv đã viết: ↑

Tốt rồi, tin vui !!

Vậy thâm hụt thương mại - 700tr USD thì tới từ đâu các bác nhỉ? Chắc chủ đạo tới từ anh láng giềng...

https://tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/indicators
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tới từ mấy anh quan chức hay cho con học ở nước ngoài, chữa bệnh nước ngoài, mua đồ xa xỉ từ nước ngoài.

BlackHoleVN · 25/05/2019, 18:49

Đỗ Nam Trung đang phải nựng VN dài, vốn FDI đổ vào ầm ầm. Bức tranh sẽ rõ dần vào các quý tới.

saaaaam · 26/05/2019, 07:05

Nói mua hay bán là được rồi bạn.

Thặng dư thương mại Việt Nam với Hoa Kỳ tăng 45%

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